The Kentucky Wildcats are one of two SEC East schools to have never made the SEC Championship Game since the event began in 1992. Kentucky is one of four SEC schools (with Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Ole Miss) to have never made the SEC’s biggest game of the year. How is that ever going to change? More precisely, how can it change in 2018?
By Matt Zemek
No, let’s not think it is a likely proposition, but if you were going to narrow down an SEC East title formula to three central keys, what would they be? Here is an attempt to legitimately tackle this topic for the good people of Lexington and all who are part of Big Blue Nation:
1) DEFENSIVE BREAKDOWNS — LIMIT THEM
The defining moment of Kentucky’s 2017 season was not a happy one — anything but. It was a defensive miscommunication. More than that, it was a defensive communication in the red zone. More than that, it was a defensive communication in the red zone in the final moments of a game… a game against Florida, one of the two great nemeses for the Wildcats alongside Tennessee. One gets the sense that if Kentucky can find a way to break the spell against the Gators, the mood in and around the program can change, and the culture can evolve to a point where Big Blue can take the next step. At the very least, it’s possible.
Moments within seasons can and do change the trajectory of programs. Think about Penn State in 2016. The Nittany Lions lost twice in September and had been crushed by Michigan for one of those two losses. They were getting solidly outplayed by Ohio State midway through that season and struggled to move the ball in that game, trailing 21-14. Then Penn State blocked two kicks, a punt and a field goal, for the final 10 points of the game while the defense stood on its head and dominated in the fourth quarter. That win unleashed a tidal wave of transformation in and through the program. Trace McSorley became Trace McSorley. Saquon Barkley roared. The receivers started winning every 50-50 ball in traffic. The offense shifted into high gear. Everything about the program became very different. Penn State is now a national power.
Obviously, Kentucky is not Penn State. UK is a basketball school without a football culture. Obviously, Kentucky doesn’t have a football history which will lead to heavyweight recruiting in the blink of an eye. Obviously, the two programs have little in common. Yet, these changes occur from nowhere at programs — they might not last as long at schools which care more about basketball, but they can produce special individual seasons. Think of North Carolina, long a dormant football program, suddenly going 11-1 in 2015 and making the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. A very long game-winning field goal at Florida State became the moment that 2015 UNC team needed.
Kentucky, if it can beat Florida, can dare to dream big… and that’s why last year’s breakdown was so hard to shake. The mistake was so glaring that in a memorable “viral video” moment, a Kentucky cheerleader behind the end zone was shown expressing her extreme displeasure with the foul-up.
Late in the Ole Miss game and constantly against Mississippi State, Kentucky made far too many defensive mistakes. Other offenses were simply more talented than Kentucky’s defense, but Ole Miss in particular should not have lit up the Wildcats to the extent it did. There is ample room for improvement on defense, and until UK tightens up, an SEC East title can’t become a realistic possibility.
This larger theme of defensive discipline is also relevant because in order to win the East, Kentucky has to beat South Carolina. UK must beat Florida and South Carolina, realistically losing its only SEC East game against Georgia (and getting help from other teams who play the Bulldogs). This year, UK will probably have to contend with Deebo Samuel, whose injury was a key feature of 2017’s Kentucky win in Columbia. You know Samuel and South Carolina will want to expunge the bitter taste of last year. The Wildcats’ back seven will have to be on top of their game in that contest.
2) AN UNCONVENTIONAL GAME PLAN AGAINST GEORGIA
The SEC East goes through Georgia. No one debates this. Kentucky hosts UGA this year, so at least there is a puncher’s chance of riling up a home crowd in Commonwealth Stadium (now named Kroger Field, but we love the old-time names) and pulling off a remarkable upset. Those upsets aren’t abundant in college football, but they do happen each season. Can Kentucky hit the jackpot?
It begins with Mark Stoops’ plan on both sides of the ball.
You can’t expect to beat elite teams doing normal things based on normal film study and using normal playbooks or schemes.
This is the kind of game in which Kentucky has to go against tendency and show looks Kirby Smart likely hasn’t seen on film. How the Wildcats approach this game should be a “one-game season,” not in terms of emotional investment, but in terms of their tactical approach to a specific opponent.
Against Florida State in 1997, Florida coach Steve Spurrier alternated quarterbacks on snaps, coaching them personally and giving them specific plays to run. His team had been struggling, and more specifically, his quarterback, Doug Johnson, had been struggling. The alternating-QB approach gave more structure and clarity to what Johnson was doing, while also reducing his overall workload of plays and catering to his strengths. Clever, one-game thinking — which generally isn’t sustainable OR recommended over the course of a full regular season — enabled Florida to pull off that upset and knock Florida State out of the Bowl Alliance national championship game against Nebraska.
Kentucky has to do things like that against Georgia, never allowing the Bulldogs to think they know what’s coming.
Elastic and fearless situational thinking — running the play clock down to one second in the first quarter to shorten the game, going for it on fourth and 1 inside one’s own 40 repeatedly, in order to keep the ball from Georgia’s offense — must guide Kentucky against Georgia. If you know a game is going to define your conference season or determine one’s chances for winning a division title or some other significant milestone, it needs to be given special treatment.
Coaches mean well when they say that athletes have to treat a game just like any other game. The intent is easy enough to discern: Coaches want players to get used to sound habits they can learn to trust and depend on, so that they aren’t too hyped up (or not energized enough) for each Saturday and are always focused on the task at hand. I get it. We get it.
But let’s be realistic. Some games ARE bigger than others. The key insight is to be consistent in preparation and focus but offer something extra for the bigger games. This doesn’t mean other games should be subpar — nothing should be taken away from those games — but added components must enter the equation for the supreme Saturdays in a season.
Florida (get the monkey off the back), Louisville (not an SEC game but hugely important for the obvious reasons), and Georgia are the three biggest games of the year. In 2018, the weaknesses and uncertainties at UF and UL mean that Kentucky doesn’t have to overhaul its game plan, but Georgia is a giant now, and giants require toweringly creative plans.
3) MAPPING OUT THE SCHEDULE
In order to win the SEC East, one must strike a balance between what is realistic and what is possible.
Sure, Kentucky would love to go 7-1 in the SEC and win the East that way, but I don’t think that’s realistic.
I also don’t think 5-3 has a chance of winning the SEC East. Only if Georgia gets hit by a Biblical locust plague of injuries might that be the case.
It is not beyond the realm of possibility — in a way which merits serious consideration — for Georgia to stub its toe against SOMEONE. Maybe Auburn, maybe Florida in the Cocktail Party, maybe at LSU. If UGA indeed loses one of those three games, Kentucky would then be able to win the SEC East by going 6-2 and beating Georgia as part of that 6-2 record. UK would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The question then becomes, “What is the reasonable path/roadmap” for UK to get to 6-2 with the win over UGA?”
In other words, how does UK go 5-2 in the seven non-Georgia games?
There are many ways to split up the totals, but a few essentials are as follows:
Florida and Texas A&M are both road games. Splitting those, at minimum, is a must. You might say, “Well, if UK wins at Missouri and Tennessee later in the season and still protects its home field, it can still go 6-2.” Technically and narrowly, that is true, but if UK does lose both games at Florida and at A&M, do you REALLY think the Cats will have the confidence or the internal know-how to turn around the ship in midseason and go on an extended winning streak?
The necessity of splitting the two games against Florida and Texas A&M is magnified by a few details: One, those are both teams led by first-year head coaches. Getting those teams while they are still figuring things out gives Kentucky more of a chance of beating them than in other years with other situations.
Two, the attritional realities of football mean that winning every week for a month and a half is especially hard to achieve. Unless one half of a conference schedule is dramatically easier than the other half (and in this case, that is NOT the case; both the first and second halves involve challenging SEC games), the better path to a good conference record is to jump on the competition early, which gives a team a cushion later in the season. When an unexpected loss occurs in September, the margin for error evaporates, and any encounter with injuries or other plot twists can be decisive in late October or early November.
Just be honest: Gainesville and College Station require a split at minimum. A trip to Atlanta has to involve that result, and it will very likely include a win over Georgia. 4-0 at home, 2-2 on the road.
That is the balance between high aspirations and reasonable expectations for Kentucky in 2018.
Now, let’s see if Big Blue can get there, or at least come close.
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