Bizzaro Season

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Bizzaro Season

Post by Jason94 »

This is about the most frustrating team I've ever seen. Probably rivals the 2006 team. There are a lot of really good things about the team, the players, and yet there were just too many instances where some aspect of the game just left them for a half or so and we end up losing a game that should have been very winnable on paper.

Probably most frustrating will be the overall inability to play consistent solid defense (much less the really good defense from last season). LSU came into the game having scored around .92 points per possessions and we gave up 1.25 PPP to them, by far the worst defensive effort against LSU in conference. How we gave up that many points to a team while our center has 9 blocked shots is also perplexing. Robbins is about to break the single season record for blocked shots at the current pace (despite playing in fewer games than Festus when he broke the record - Festus had 87 blocks in 34 games, Robbins has 77 in 24 games) and this defense has a worse efficiency rating than CJS' first season when he inherited the remnants of CBD's roster.

The NIT is probably what this team will have earned, but hopefully CJS will learn from it as you don't get too many chances to waste tournament level talent on the NIT. It technically isn't over, but I think we now have to win out until Sunday to have a shot at an at-large bid.

This is not a bad season overall, as it does represent some progress from last season. But it is difficult to see us coming into next season with any larger a margin of error than we had this season. There will be players who will develop and we will probably bring in someone pretty good from the portal. I don't know that this is a team that will contend for the SEC title though and therefore they will have to make more of their opportunities than this team did this season.

In the end, our overall Kenpom/NET rating is probably a pretty accurate description of how the team played on the season, and I think thought that it is underestimating our team is because it isn't looking at the talent on the roster, simply the results on the court. And that is where the frustration comes in.


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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by VandyDores15 »

Judging by how massive Liam has been the past few weeks, certainly doesn’t exude anything more than average optimism for next season. He’s a huge chunk of our production that will be hard to replace (similar to how we struggled in non-conference this season in post Scottie world)

Love how we’ve played for much of SEC play but we have to win SECT now. I think we go 2-1 at best the last 3 games. Massive offseason awaits CJS.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Obvious »

I think the lesson to be learned is the college basketball season is very short and every game matters. I haven’t looked hard at tournament selection in a long time but it really does matter what you do early on. The team played very good as of late and just didn’t have it tonight. Someone has to help with scoring. Either Wright or Stute. Thomas has been solid and his shooting has been good lately. Smith has hit some big shots. We know Ezra doesn’t score much and that’s okay because he does every thing else very well. Robbins and tyrin will have an off night and we will look really bad if we can’t get someone else to score.

In my heart I want to believe we win these last 3 games and make a sec tournament run. On paper it’s extremely unlikely we make the NCAA now. We really needed this one but we all knew winning 9 straight games to close out the season was a crazy thing to accomplish. Let’s win out at home and steal a win at Rupp.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by underdog74 »

VandyDores15 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:14 pm Judging by how massive Liam has been the past few weeks, certainly doesn’t exude anything more than average optimism for next season. He’s a huge chunk of our production that will be hard to replace (similar to how we struggled in non-conference this season in post Scottie world)

Love how we’ve played for much of SEC play but we have to win SECT now. I think we go 2-1 at best the last 3 games. Massive offseason awaits CJS.
It seems we are rebuilding each season after losing the team's star player. The roster has to get to a point that the losses aren't as detrimental. Again, who will step up and replace not only Robbins' production, but leadership?
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Obvious »

underdog74 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:14 am
VandyDores15 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:14 pm Judging by how massive Liam has been the past few weeks, certainly doesn’t exude anything more than average optimism for next season. He’s a huge chunk of our production that will be hard to replace (similar to how we struggled in non-conference this season in post Scottie world)

Love how we’ve played for much of SEC play but we have to win SECT now. I think we go 2-1 at best the last 3 games. Massive offseason awaits CJS.
It seems we are rebuilding each season after losing the team's star player. The roster has to get to a point that the losses aren't as detrimental. Again, who will step up and replace not only Robbins' production, but leadership?
I think this is kind of where college basketball is going. The transfer portal is overflowing after every season. Players are changing schools 3 to 4 times now. I would love to have some consistency in our roster. Remember that we were Liam’s third school so he wasn’t even ours to begin with.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by buffy »

Look. Sometimes the other team plays a special game. It happens. It's not like we were bad offensively. I'm fine with an NIT opportunity, if it comes. Let's enjoy watching these guys play.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Obvious »

buffy wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:44 am Look. Sometimes the other team plays a special game. It happens. It's not like we were bad offensively. I'm fine with an NIT opportunity, if it comes. Let's enjoy watching these guys play.
I agree. I’m sure Tennessee and Auburn were saying the same things when we beat them. It’s a tough conference and anyone can be beat. Except Alabama but they made a deal with the devil.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Jason94 »

buffy wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:44 am Look. Sometimes the other team plays a special game. It happens. It's not like we were bad offensively. I'm fine with an NIT opportunity, if it comes. Let's enjoy watching these guys play.
I'm not necessarily upset with any one loss, but outside of the Ark game and the five game streak, we had too many instances where our opponent had a special game, hence our overall numbers indicating that we have a very bad defense from a high major standard. Which is a shame because our offense on the season has been really good overall. If our defense from this year were as good as it was last season we would be a top 30 team in the NET.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by mathguy »

underdog74 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:14 am
VandyDores15 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:14 pm Judging by how massive Liam has been the past few weeks, certainly doesn’t exude anything more than average optimism for next season. He’s a huge chunk of our production that will be hard to replace (similar to how we struggled in non-conference this season in post Scottie world)

Love how we’ve played for much of SEC play but we have to win SECT now. I think we go 2-1 at best the last 3 games. Massive offseason awaits CJS.
It seems we are rebuilding each season after losing the team's star player. The roster has to get to a point that the losses aren't as detrimental. Again, who will step up and replace not only Robbins' production, but leadership?
From where I sit, Dort is going to be a beast before he leaves West End. If not next year, for sure his junior year. But why not next year? I also see not reason why Lewis and Smith shouldn't develop into fine rotation players next year. No, neither of them are going to be a Pippen or a Robbins, but I don't see why they can't be (in production, not style) Lawrence and Stute level next year, while those guys hopefully improve as they hit senior year.

Then there are incoming frosh and yet to be determined incoming transfers ... which is how we got Robbins in the first place, so that's not just blind hope.

There's a lot to be determined between now and November, but there is a realistic path to us being better next year than we are this year. There is also, admittedly, a path to us being worse. But right now we look like we lost Pippen last year and managed to come back and (eventually) be a better team. Certainly our SEC record is better. So losing Liam doesn't mean we are rebuilding next year. It's not like the year we lost our top 6 players from an NCAA team.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Nashmann »

I see another down year next year. With Robbins gone and Dort just learning. What is the deal with Stute and Wright? They have no more upside. If they have their degrees they should hit the portal and make room for better players with actual upsides to them!! So disappointed in those two. Can Stack not motivate them? What is the deal? As veterans, they should be leading the team! Pumping the others to play hard etc....sad Stute zero points and Wright a weak 6 points at least I guess he had 8 rebounds.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by ymtn64 »

I recorded the game & somehow kept from anyone telling me about the game. My nephew said he was tempted to warn me of the frustrations, but I'm glad I sat through the game without knowing the results(reminded me of being a kid/young teen watching the late recording after the news & having to turn our head so we didn't see the score with my dad).

Last night had several issues that rolled into the results. Ezra's foul troubles early obviously caused problems, but if that's all it takes to disrupt our team, then others will begin working to take him out of the game by changing how they play D. Robbins having to chase a 6'10" player that got hot inside and out was a bad option, but somehow he still managed 9 blocks. So when they went with two bigs, we tried a few things to deal with this. Probably if Jordan had been having a stronger offensive game, he might of caused some issues and slowed down a hot player by forcing him to play more D and chase a faster player, but instead just the opposite happened. Jordan got abused in the low post, but hard to fault him since he was giving up 5", that's lots to make up, and proved to be a bad choice.

It looks to me that QMB's issues became a major problem, again! He had the size and fouls to give to chase/body up a player that's got in such a rhythm! I realize he isn't laterally quick enough to of stopped the 3pt shooting, but that's just it. He could of chased and allowed Robbins to "stay home" on D! I believe then Robbins has more than 9 blocks, and we had a decent chance. Everyone knows when a player gets hot, sometimes there isn't much you can do about it, but if you don't find something to change things, he will have a career night easily. I thought Stack did a very good job trying different options, but QMB has frustrated me this season. Maybe he was just very good at cleaning up Pippen's drives/shots & rebounding, but last season especially he was a very good low post defender I thought, but its like as Robbins has improved, QMB regressed. I'm not with the team daily, so obviously there could be health issues or several other things that are going on. I just expected more this season from QMB, but I will add Jordan to this list, and most of the year Stute. My guess is Stute playing with wrong players most of the early season has damaged his confidence, and thus his shot isn't falling even as he now typically is in the game with a driving pg that can dish & a big that'd demanding attention in the post!

I'm going to be there Saturday, and cheering loudly with my group. I'm going to be hopeful we find a way into post season play, but I agree the options for the NCAA are looking really tough now. I don't believe we can have a chance to win the SEC Tourney without the double bye, and I doubt that is enough either, but this team has done some really great/fun things already, so let's get ready to yell and support our guys because it is a blast when Memorial is rocking!
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by MrMemorial »

ymtn64 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:49 am I recorded the game & somehow kept from anyone telling me about the game. My nephew said he was tempted to warn me of the frustrations, but I'm glad I sat through the game without knowing the results(reminded me of being a kid/young teen watching the late recording after the news & having to turn our head so we didn't see the score with my dad).

Last night had several issues that rolled into the results. Ezra's foul troubles early obviously caused problems, but if that's all it takes to disrupt our team, then others will begin working to take him out of the game by changing how they play D. Robbins having to chase a 6'10" player that got hot inside and out was a bad option, but somehow he still managed 9 blocks. So when they went with two bigs, we tried a few things to deal with this. Probably if Jordan had been having a stronger offensive game, he might of caused some issues and slowed down a hot player by forcing him to play more D and chase a faster player, but instead just the opposite happened. Jordan got abused in the low post, but hard to fault him since he was giving up 5", that's lots to make up, and proved to be a bad choice.

It looks to me that QMB's issues became a major problem, again! He had the size and fouls to give to chase/body up a player that's got in such a rhythm! I realize he isn't laterally quick enough to of stopped the 3pt shooting, but that's just it. He could of chased and allowed Robbins to "stay home" on D! I believe then Robbins has more than 9 blocks, and we had a decent chance. Everyone knows when a player gets hot, sometimes there isn't much you can do about it, but if you don't find something to change things, he will have a career night easily. I thought Stack did a very good job trying different options, but QMB has frustrated me this season. Maybe he was just very good at cleaning up Pippen's drives/shots & rebounding, but last season especially he was a very good low post defender I thought, but its like as Robbins has improved, QMB regressed. I'm not with the team daily, so obviously there could be health issues or several other things that are going on. I just expected more this season from QMB, but I will add Jordan to this list, and most of the year Stute. My guess is Stute playing with wrong players most of the early season has damaged his confidence, and thus his shot isn't falling even as he now typically is in the game with a driving pg that can dish & a big that'd demanding attention in the post!

I'm going to be there Saturday, and cheering loudly with my group. I'm going to be hopeful we find a way into post season play, but I agree the options for the NCAA are looking really tough now. I don't believe we can have a chance to win the SEC Tourney without the double bye, and I doubt that is enough either, but this team has done some really great/fun things already, so let's get ready to yell and support our guys because it is a blast when Memorial is rocking!
Good analysis there ymt...nice to see somebody on here who actually knows and understands hoops while so many whiners who never played a lick of basketball (you can tell which ones) do nothing but cry and b!tch after a loss after recently celebrating their rear ends off ridiculously after wins.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by ymtn64 »

Thanks Mr Memorial, but not sure I'm very qualified. My brother would tell you, I know enough to sound like I know what's going on, but also not near as wise as I think I am :) . I love the game of basketball, and as my wife once said to me "If you had just a bit more ability, it would of been much harder for you to hear God call me to be a Minister". I had to think on that one because at first I thought she was teasing me about not being a very good athlete, but instead there was quite the compliment in there because as much as I love sports there are far more important things in life!

I should of said two more things about the game. I thought Trey played another very good game! He tried to drive, but did get cut off easily, its just not his best skill set. I thought he did the best he could do on D & when he can get his shot off, its big for him to be on from 3.

Also Tyrin was great to begin the game! I was excited as he had 11 points in the first 6 minutes of the game, but the issue was after that he didn't score again until the 2nd half. Possibly this was from LSU adjusting how they were guarding him, but I didn't notice enough change to of mattered that much
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Jason94 »

mathguy wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:48 am
underdog74 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:14 am
VandyDores15 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:14 pm Judging by how massive Liam has been the past few weeks, certainly doesn’t exude anything more than average optimism for next season. He’s a huge chunk of our production that will be hard to replace (similar to how we struggled in non-conference this season in post Scottie world)

Love how we’ve played for much of SEC play but we have to win SECT now. I think we go 2-1 at best the last 3 games. Massive offseason awaits CJS.
It seems we are rebuilding each season after losing the team's star player. The roster has to get to a point that the losses aren't as detrimental. Again, who will step up and replace not only Robbins' production, but leadership?
From where I sit, Dort is going to be a beast before he leaves West End. If not next year, for sure his junior year. But why not next year? I also see not reason why Lewis and Smith shouldn't develop into fine rotation players next year. No, neither of them are going to be a Pippen or a Robbins, but I don't see why they can't be (in production, not style) Lawrence and Stute level next year, while those guys hopefully improve as they hit senior year.

Then there are incoming frosh and yet to be determined incoming transfers ... which is how we got Robbins in the first place, so that's not just blind hope.

There's a lot to be determined between now and November, but there is a realistic path to us being better next year than we are this year. There is also, admittedly, a path to us being worse. But right now we look like we lost Pippen last year and managed to come back and (eventually) be a better team. Certainly our SEC record is better. So losing Liam doesn't mean we are rebuilding next year. It's not like the year we lost our top 6 players from an NCAA team.
This goes back to what I was talking about early in the season - the freshmen are going to have to go through growing pains to see a sophomore season jump. Maybe they got enough playing time this season to have gone through that, but none of the players outside of Smith were really a part of the rotation and likely have significant growing pains yet to go through.

It isn't so much that we are going to fall far from where we are or not have a chance to improve. It is just that a whole lot has to go right for us to be an obvious tournament team, including picking up someone who will be a strong improvement over what we currently have. Incremental gains would mean we are firmly on the bubble, which is an improvement, but no guarentee of making the tournament, and its been a while.

We went into 2010 as an obvious tournament team. Same thing with 2011, 2012 and 2016 (which is part of what got CKS the boot - he underachieved in that season). In 2004 we had an obvious star in Freije as a senior even though we were coming off of a bad season. 2007 Foster and Byars were going to anchor that team though we didn't know what to expect following a disappointing 2006 season.

Maybe Dort breaks out next season or maybe he needs another season like Ezeli or Perdue did. Maybe Lewis and Smith break out, but based on their usage this season, it seems unlikely to expect anything approaching double digit scoring from either of them. We didn't see enough from Dia or Shelby to know whether they are break out candidates, but assuming that CJS was doling out PT based upon how ready players were, that also seems unlikely. Wright is probably our best returning player, and the coach say he is best playing around 20 mpg. No team that is going to the tournament will limit their best player to 20 mpg.

The best case scenario besides brining in some stud through the transfer portal would be for Lawrence to make a very large jump in usage while simultaneously improving his three point shooting to 35%. Basically go from where he is to a 15-18 ppg players who is playing 30 mpg every night. Manjon is effective and efficient where he is as a low usage pass first point, and Stute is who he is - a stretch 4 who isn't going to give you much more on the offensive end but as a 4th option is pretty good. Thomas is stretched as a starter, and it is telling that we are praising his play when he is shooting below 33% from three and the floor and does not provide rebounding, assists or defense. Again, he is not likely a starter on a tournament team. Dort will also have to go from someone who might or might not play to a 24 mpg starter who averages double digit points and rebounds and fills the void in the middle. QMB is a nice glue player but our tournament chances are not dependent upon his play.

That is requiring a lot to go right, and if we have to wait until game 15 for that to happen we will be in a similar situation as we were this season - left with little margin for error when it comes to making the tournament.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by charlestonalum »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:46 pm
mathguy wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:48 am
underdog74 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:14 am

It seems we are rebuilding each season after losing the team's star player. The roster has to get to a point that the losses aren't as detrimental. Again, who will step up and replace not only Robbins' production, but leadership?
From where I sit, Dort is going to be a beast before he leaves West End. If not next year, for sure his junior year. But why not next year? I also see not reason why Lewis and Smith shouldn't develop into fine rotation players next year. No, neither of them are going to be a Pippen or a Robbins, but I don't see why they can't be (in production, not style) Lawrence and Stute level next year, while those guys hopefully improve as they hit senior year.

Then there are incoming frosh and yet to be determined incoming transfers ... which is how we got Robbins in the first place, so that's not just blind hope.

There's a lot to be determined between now and November, but there is a realistic path to us being better next year than we are this year. There is also, admittedly, a path to us being worse. But right now we look like we lost Pippen last year and managed to come back and (eventually) be a better team. Certainly our SEC record is better. So losing Liam doesn't mean we are rebuilding next year. It's not like the year we lost our top 6 players from an NCAA team.
This goes back to what I was talking about early in the season - the freshmen are going to have to go through growing pains to see a sophomore season jump. Maybe they got enough playing time this season to have gone through that, but none of the players outside of Smith were really a part of the rotation and likely have significant growing pains yet to go through.

It isn't so much that we are going to fall far from where we are or not have a chance to improve. It is just that a whole lot has to go right for us to be an obvious tournament team, including picking up someone who will be a strong improvement over what we currently have. Incremental gains would mean we are firmly on the bubble, which is an improvement, but no guarentee of making the tournament, and its been a while.

We went into 2010 as an obvious tournament team. Same thing with 2011, 2012 and 2016 (which is part of what got CKS the boot - he underachieved in that season). In 2004 we had an obvious star in Freije as a senior even though we were coming off of a bad season. 2007 Foster and Byars were going to anchor that team though we didn't know what to expect following a disappointing 2006 season.

Maybe Dort breaks out next season or maybe he needs another season like Ezeli or Perdue did. Maybe Lewis and Smith break out, but based on their usage this season, it seems unlikely to expect anything approaching double digit scoring from either of them. We didn't see enough from Dia or Shelby to know whether they are break out candidates, but assuming that CJS was doling out PT based upon how ready players were, that also seems unlikely. Wright is probably our best returning player, and the coach say he is best playing around 20 mpg. No team that is going to the tournament will limit their best player to 20 mpg.

The best case scenario besides brining in some stud through the transfer portal would be for Lawrence to make a very large jump in usage while simultaneously improving his three point shooting to 35%. Basically go from where he is to a 15-18 ppg players who is playing 30 mpg every night. Manjon is effective and efficient where he is as a low usage pass first point, and Stute is who he is - a stretch 4 who isn't going to give you much more on the offensive end but as a 4th option is pretty good. Thomas is stretched as a starter, and it is telling that we are praising his play when he is shooting below 33% from three and the floor and does not provide rebounding, assists or defense. Again, he is not likely a starter on a tournament team. Dort will also have to go from someone who might or might not play to a 24 mpg starter who averages double digit points and rebounds and fills the void in the middle. QMB is a nice glue player but our tournament chances are not dependent upon his play.

That is requiring a lot to go right, and if we have to wait until game 15 for that to happen we will be in a similar situation as we were this season - left with little margin for error when it comes to making the tournament.
What is beyond bizarre is this thread about next year when we have yet to complete the stretch run this season - good grief - enjoy (or hate) the moment. We could be in WW III next year.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by VU1970 »

Another lesson: It's a game at a time, not a season at a time. And victory is never guaranteed against any SEC team.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by Jason94 »

charlestonalum wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:38 pm
Jason94 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:46 pm
mathguy wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:48 am

From where I sit, Dort is going to be a beast before he leaves West End. If not next year, for sure his junior year. But why not next year? I also see not reason why Lewis and Smith shouldn't develop into fine rotation players next year. No, neither of them are going to be a Pippen or a Robbins, but I don't see why they can't be (in production, not style) Lawrence and Stute level next year, while those guys hopefully improve as they hit senior year.

Then there are incoming frosh and yet to be determined incoming transfers ... which is how we got Robbins in the first place, so that's not just blind hope.

There's a lot to be determined between now and November, but there is a realistic path to us being better next year than we are this year. There is also, admittedly, a path to us being worse. But right now we look like we lost Pippen last year and managed to come back and (eventually) be a better team. Certainly our SEC record is better. So losing Liam doesn't mean we are rebuilding next year. It's not like the year we lost our top 6 players from an NCAA team.
This goes back to what I was talking about early in the season - the freshmen are going to have to go through growing pains to see a sophomore season jump. Maybe they got enough playing time this season to have gone through that, but none of the players outside of Smith were really a part of the rotation and likely have significant growing pains yet to go through.

It isn't so much that we are going to fall far from where we are or not have a chance to improve. It is just that a whole lot has to go right for us to be an obvious tournament team, including picking up someone who will be a strong improvement over what we currently have. Incremental gains would mean we are firmly on the bubble, which is an improvement, but no guarentee of making the tournament, and its been a while.

We went into 2010 as an obvious tournament team. Same thing with 2011, 2012 and 2016 (which is part of what got CKS the boot - he underachieved in that season). In 2004 we had an obvious star in Freije as a senior even though we were coming off of a bad season. 2007 Foster and Byars were going to anchor that team though we didn't know what to expect following a disappointing 2006 season.

Maybe Dort breaks out next season or maybe he needs another season like Ezeli or Perdue did. Maybe Lewis and Smith break out, but based on their usage this season, it seems unlikely to expect anything approaching double digit scoring from either of them. We didn't see enough from Dia or Shelby to know whether they are break out candidates, but assuming that CJS was doling out PT based upon how ready players were, that also seems unlikely. Wright is probably our best returning player, and the coach say he is best playing around 20 mpg. No team that is going to the tournament will limit their best player to 20 mpg.

The best case scenario besides brining in some stud through the transfer portal would be for Lawrence to make a very large jump in usage while simultaneously improving his three point shooting to 35%. Basically go from where he is to a 15-18 ppg players who is playing 30 mpg every night. Manjon is effective and efficient where he is as a low usage pass first point, and Stute is who he is - a stretch 4 who isn't going to give you much more on the offensive end but as a 4th option is pretty good. Thomas is stretched as a starter, and it is telling that we are praising his play when he is shooting below 33% from three and the floor and does not provide rebounding, assists or defense. Again, he is not likely a starter on a tournament team. Dort will also have to go from someone who might or might not play to a 24 mpg starter who averages double digit points and rebounds and fills the void in the middle. QMB is a nice glue player but our tournament chances are not dependent upon his play.

That is requiring a lot to go right, and if we have to wait until game 15 for that to happen we will be in a similar situation as we were this season - left with little margin for error when it comes to making the tournament.
What is beyond bizarre is this thread about next year when we have yet to complete the stretch run this season - good grief - enjoy (or hate) the moment. We could be in WW III next year.
While I appreciate the feedback, many have the ability to focus on multiple things at once and don't feel particularly constrained by whether you think we are living in the moment sufficiently. I think the question of whether or not we are building to a NCAA tournament level team is one that is very pertinent since we haven't been there in 6 seasons and while it isn't mathematically impossible for us to make the tournament this season, it is very unlikely at this point. My question to you would be are you not interested in having Vanderbilt make the tournament again? If so, are you curious as to whether or not it will occur within the next year? Or do you simply trust the coaching staff that it will happen? If so, what do you base this trust upon?

Note that if we don't make the tournament this year or next CJS' seat will be quite hot. I'd prefer that he make the tournament so we don't have to worry about a coaching search, which is very risky for us and probably sets us back another couple of seasons. I'd hate to go a decade between tournament appearances.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by dcdore »

Before LSU, our chances of making the NCAA tourney were Slim and None. Since LSU, Slim has left town.
Always hopeful; rarely optimistic. @GAD
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by charlestonalum »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:40 pm
charlestonalum wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:38 pm
Jason94 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:46 pm

This goes back to what I was talking about early in the season - the freshmen are going to have to go through growing pains to see a sophomore season jump. Maybe they got enough playing time this season to have gone through that, but none of the players outside of Smith were really a part of the rotation and likely have significant growing pains yet to go through.

It isn't so much that we are going to fall far from where we are or not have a chance to improve. It is just that a whole lot has to go right for us to be an obvious tournament team, including picking up someone who will be a strong improvement over what we currently have. Incremental gains would mean we are firmly on the bubble, which is an improvement, but no guarentee of making the tournament, and its been a while.

We went into 2010 as an obvious tournament team. Same thing with 2011, 2012 and 2016 (which is part of what got CKS the boot - he underachieved in that season). In 2004 we had an obvious star in Freije as a senior even though we were coming off of a bad season. 2007 Foster and Byars were going to anchor that team though we didn't know what to expect following a disappointing 2006 season.

Maybe Dort breaks out next season or maybe he needs another season like Ezeli or Perdue did. Maybe Lewis and Smith break out, but based on their usage this season, it seems unlikely to expect anything approaching double digit scoring from either of them. We didn't see enough from Dia or Shelby to know whether they are break out candidates, but assuming that CJS was doling out PT based upon how ready players were, that also seems unlikely. Wright is probably our best returning player, and the coach say he is best playing around 20 mpg. No team that is going to the tournament will limit their best player to 20 mpg.

The best case scenario besides brining in some stud through the transfer portal would be for Lawrence to make a very large jump in usage while simultaneously improving his three point shooting to 35%. Basically go from where he is to a 15-18 ppg players who is playing 30 mpg every night. Manjon is effective and efficient where he is as a low usage pass first point, and Stute is who he is - a stretch 4 who isn't going to give you much more on the offensive end but as a 4th option is pretty good. Thomas is stretched as a starter, and it is telling that we are praising his play when he is shooting below 33% from three and the floor and does not provide rebounding, assists or defense. Again, he is not likely a starter on a tournament team. Dort will also have to go from someone who might or might not play to a 24 mpg starter who averages double digit points and rebounds and fills the void in the middle. QMB is a nice glue player but our tournament chances are not dependent upon his play.

That is requiring a lot to go right, and if we have to wait until game 15 for that to happen we will be in a similar situation as we were this season - left with little margin for error when it comes to making the tournament.
What is beyond bizarre is this thread about next year when we have yet to complete the stretch run this season - good grief - enjoy (or hate) the moment. We could be in WW III next year.
While I appreciate the feedback, many have the ability to focus on multiple things at once and don't feel particularly constrained by whether you think we are living in the moment sufficiently. I think the question of whether or not we are building to a NCAA tournament level team is one that is very pertinent since we haven't been there in 6 seasons and while it isn't mathematically impossible for us to make the tournament this season, it is very unlikely at this point. My question to you would be are you not interested in having Vanderbilt make the tournament again? If so, are you curious as to whether or not it will occur within the next year? Or do you simply trust the coaching staff that it will happen? If so, what do you base this trust upon?

Note that if we don't make the tournament this year or next CJS' seat will be quite hot. I'd prefer that he make the tournament so we don't have to worry about a coaching search, which is very risky for us and probably sets us back another couple of seasons. I'd hate to go a decade between tournament appearances.
This is an off-season topic: my thought is to concentrate on supporting this year's team and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Maybe it is my age.
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Re: Bizzaro Season

Post by AuricGoldfinger »

Last night was frustrating at a macro level for two reasons: I really thought we had put those games behind us, and it wouldn't have been so harmful had we not lost games in the non-conference part of the schedule we really shouldn't have. It was a swift kick in the shorts.
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