Week 1 is a bundle of mystery and intrigue, and it regularly demands a certain degree of caution from football analysts. If a team plays a showcase game in Week 1, it is easier to assign a profound level of meeting to the moment. (Even then, that result can become misleading in the course of the following three months.) When a team plays a small-conference opponent, as Vanderbilt did against Middle Tennessee this past Saturday, it is very hard to say, “Well, this is how the 2018 season is going to unfold.”
By Matt Zemek
Last year should be sufficient to prevent Vanderbilt fans from thinking that 2018’s opener means a big year. VU has a lot more work to do before it earns that status, or even earns a legitimate reason to hope it can attain that status. Let’s put that discussion aside and now focus on what happened against the Blue Raiders, using that background to set up the Week 2 clash with the Nevada Wolf Pack.
This opener against Middle Tennessee was a study in gradualism. Vanderbilt didn’t abruptly overwhelm MTSU or bust the game open. It slowly and steadily found its legs and got better over 60 minutes while the Blue Raiders were worn down and smothered by Vanderbilt’s defense. VU’s offense was not explosive for much of this game. The Commodores averaged under four yards per play in the first half and did not score more than a touchdown in any of the first three quarters. The fourth quarter was the most productive quarter, but VU already led 21-7 at that point. The Dores didn’t deliver haymakers but landed a succession of body blows which eroded Middle Tennessee’s strength and staying power. Vanderbilt didn’t need its offense to be great, and the Dores didn’t need to go deep into their playbook, as is appropriate for a Week 1 game, but even with those reassuring notes in mind, it remains that Vanderbilt does need to be more explosive on offense.
The defense feasted on MTSU’s offensive line, racking up six sacks. The secondary which was ravaged by injuries last year held up well against the Blue Raiders’ passing attack. But as noted above, this crisp defensive showing was part of the 2017 opener against MTSU. It can’t be presumed to mean a lot in SEC play. It can’t even be taken as a sure sign that the Dores will be ready to blanket Nevada in Week 2.
Let’s briefly address Nevada. The Wolf Pack played an FCS team, Portland State, in Week 1, so one should be very cautious about gleaning too much from that game. However, if you’re going to play an FCS cupcake, the best statement to make is to win that game very handily, and Nevada did that, 72-19. If a team scores at least 70 points, the offense had a good night. That has to offer Nevada at least a small degree of encouragement after last year’s 3-9 campaign under then-first-year coach Jay Norvell. A coach in his second season should have more comfort in his new surroundings, and it is reasonable to conclude that Norvell is much more in sync with his personnel. If Nevada has truly found something and has understood how to work together on offense, Vanderbilt could be in for a challenge on Saturday.
What works in favor of VU, though, is that in a chess match between Norvell (and his offensive staff) and Derek Mason, the Commodores should have the upper hand. Norvell was on Bob Stoops’ staff at Oklahoma for several years, and most of those years involved decreases in OU’s production or conference standing. The Sooners didn’t win a Big 12 title from 2011 through 2014 with Norvell having a prominent role on the offensive side of the ball. When Stoops hired Lincoln Riley as offensive coordinator before the 2015 season, the Sooners’ offense took off.
In that same 2015 season when Oklahoma soared, OU’s chief rival, Texas, floundered on offense. Guess who had moved from OU to UT? Norvell, who joined Charlie Strong on staff as wide receiver coach but was then promoted to offensive coordinator when second-year OC Shawn Watson fell out of favor with Strong due to repeatedly poor performances. Norvell’s interim stint as offensive coordinator was a bust. It led to the wild goosechase which led a beleaguered Strong to plead to Sterlin Gilbert (then an assistant at Tulsa) to take the Texas OC job. Gilbert is now Strong’s offensive coordinator at South Florida.
Norvell has spent decades in the coaching profession, but his knack for developing offenses is not very distinguished. Mason’s work as a defensive mind greatly eclipses Norvell’s offensive acumen. Yes, Vanderbilt’s defense might have had a very manageable assignment against Middle Tennessee in Week 1, which could suggest that Nevada will pose problems in Week 2, but if Portland State was as much of a tomato can as it appears to be, Nevada’s 72 points this past weekend don’t carry all that much value. Mason can handle Norvell, and VU’s secondary can handle Nevada, which gobbled up lots of passing yards — over 340 for starting quarterback Ty Gangi — on just 16 completions. This game is a mystery and not something which should create fixed sets of expectations, but if history is a guide, Vanderbilt should be okay.
Should, however, is a word which seemed to apply to the 2017 team early in the season… and we all know how that turned out.
It is up to VU, on both sides of the ball, to turn should into “Hey, this looks better and more solid than last season.”
Appearances are often deceiving in college football at this time of year. Vanderbilt needs to forget about appearances and work on improving its reality.
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