Mississippi State football visits Alabama on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Here are your three keys to a Bulldog victory.
By Matt Zemek
When the Mississippi State Bulldogs smoked the LSU Tigers in Week 1 of this SEC season, it seemed that Mike Leach had a quarterback and an offense which could do a lot of damage in the conference. Yet, while LSU has struggled on defense in subsequent weeks, Mississippi State’s offense has cratered. The Bulldogs haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their next three games. Now they have to deal with the Alabama Crimson Tide on Halloween, which happens to be Nick Saban’s birthday. Alabama might have lost receiver Jaylen Waddle for the rest of the season, but the Crimson Tide still look like the best team in the SEC and one of the three best teams in the country alongside Clemson and Ohio State. What can Mississippi State do? The concepts are easy enough to identify, but it will be hard to actually apply and implement them.
1 – Back to the LSU formula
Mississippi State has to find a way to recapture the formula it used against LSU, when it threw the ball with regularity and enjoyed considerable success. Mississippi State didn’t worry about balancing the run and the pass. It didn’t worry about controlling the ball. MSU focused on moving the ball and hitting the big play, scoring enough points that its defense had a margin for error. The Bulldogs racked up over 600 passing yards and outscored LSU in a shootout. That’s the best and most reasonable path to victory for Mississippi State in this game – not because it is likely (it isn’t), but because there’s no other winning scenario for this team.
Alabama is going to score its share of points. That’s going to happen. Mississippi State has to keep up with the Tide and do just enough on defense to make this game competitive, giving the Bulldogs a chance to steal the win in the fourth quarter. MSU needs to win this game by a 38-35 score or something in that range. Getting the 38 points will be the hard part, so Leach and quarterback K.J. Costello need to worry less about time of possession, more about posting touchdowns.
2 – Don’t allow home runs
Baseball season is over, but Mississippi State has to prevent Alabama from hitting home runs. The Crimson Tide’s best deep-ball threat, Jaylen Waddle, is out. The Tide have other quality receivers, but now it might be slightly easier to prevent Bama from getting 60- or 70-yard touchdowns. Limiting the long ball can deny Alabama a 50-point outing. MSU won’t hold Bama under 30 points, but it could hold the Tide under 40 points. If the offense can do its job, this game could be dramatic and interesting in the final 10 minutes of regulation. If Alabama’s offense wants to score touchdowns, MSU’s defense needs to force the Tide to piece together 10 plays on a drive. If Mac Jones slips up, the Tide will have to settle for a few field goals, and the seeds of an upset can be planted.
3 – Consequences for Costello
K.J. Costello was brilliant against LSU and has been bad ever since. Alabama has taken advantage of quarterback lapses from Georgia and Tennessee in recent weeks. The Tide will feast on any team which doesn’t get elite quarterback play. Costello, after weeks of bad football, has to rediscover his best self. Mississippi State can’t win if Costello is anything less than great in this game.
Saturday‘s Mississippi State football game kicks off at 6:00 PM CT (7:00 PM ET). You can watch on the ESPN Network.
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