OLD VandyMania.com (ARCHIVE)

Lynchsr wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:35 am Vandy only had a 30.3% chance to beat Auburn, so maybe let everyone keep underestimating poor old Vandy. Wink wink

FrontDore wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 2:54 pm LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?

SteveE79 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 3:26 pm

FrontDore wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 2:54 pm LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?

The Law of Averages?

Versus75 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:48 pm Doesn't anyone in Bristol look at the numbers and say, "This ain't right?"

As of Saturday night, presumably before the results of the day were calculated, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog by this computer program in all four of the remaining regular season games.

The numbers moved only so very slightly toward the 'Dores AFTER we beat Auburn, LSU lost at home to the second or third worst team in the SEC, and Florida took a big loss without its top player.

Now, I'm not gonna predict that we will win all four games but WE SHOULD BE FAVORITES AT LSU and HOME VERSUS FLORIDA. I could add the home game against Mississippi State to that list.

ESPN MATCHUP PREDICTOR .... Sat pm ......... Sun am

Wed. Feb. 22 @ LSU .. LSU .. 55.8% ... LSU .. 52.2%
Sat. Feb. 25 v FLA .. FLA .. 57.3% ... FLA .. 53.9%
Wed. Mar. 01 @ KY ... KY ... 90.3% ... KY ... 91.1%
Sat. Mar. 04 v MSU .. MSU .. 57.0% ... MSU .. 56.5%

Jason94 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:04 pm

Versus75 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:48 pm Doesn't anyone in Bristol look at the numbers and say, "This ain't right?"

As of Saturday night, presumably before the results of the day were calculated, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog by this computer program in all four of the remaining regular season games.

The numbers moved only so very slightly toward the 'Dores AFTER we beat Auburn, LSU lost at home to the second or third worst team in the SEC, and Florida took a big loss without its top player.

Now, I'm not gonna predict that we will win all four games but WE SHOULD BE FAVORITES AT LSU and HOME VERSUS FLORIDA. I could add the home game against Mississippi State to that list.

ESPN MATCHUP PREDICTOR .... Sat pm ......... Sun am

Wed. Feb. 22 @ LSU .. LSU .. 55.8% ... LSU .. 52.2%
Sat. Feb. 25 v FLA .. FLA .. 57.3% ... FLA .. 53.9%
Wed. Mar. 01 @ KY ... KY ... 90.3% ... KY ... 91.1%
Sat. Mar. 04 v MSU .. MSU .. 57.0% ... MSU .. 56.5%

These predictions use advanced metrics to figure out the numbers as nobody can actually watch every single game to compare all of the teams. Those metrics generally don't weigh how a team is playing at the moment but uses the entire season, and while we started 7-6, LSU started 12-1, so despite their loss streak their record is only 3 games worse than ours is. Additionally they are getting "credit" for playing the toughest schedule in conference. For us, prior to the last 5 games we were not really a consideration for either the NIT or NCAA tournament based on how we had played. And while the last 5 games have been fantastic, from a numbers perspective, we've won 3 games by a single possession, all at home. This is where the luck factor comes into play.

For an observer who has watched us play the last few weeks it would seem that we should be an obvious favorite, but efficiency metrics would say that we are "lucky", and we are playing a team on the road, which confers a slight point advantage to the home team. Kenpom has us as a 2 point favorite FWIW, but I don't think anyone will show us as a huge favorite.

What would probably help us a lot would be a 15 point win tomorrow, basically have the team step on the gas and run them out of the gym.