Does the NET Rating kill our NCAA chances?

[Versus75]

Jason94 or someone else here may know how much the massive loss at Alabama hurt Vanderbilt. It seems as though we tumbled about 20 NET ranking positions following the one game and that may be insurmountable.

I wonder if the Selection Committee (which probably has this tool) might look at the Vanderbilt NET as if we didn't even play that game. "Take out one game and Vanderbilt's NET is on the NCAA Bubble!"

The RPI doesn't consider margin of loss or offensive efficiency or whatever ... just which team won and was the game Home, Away or Neutral.

The current ESPN Bubble Watch (Feb. 12) lists SEC teams with "Work to do" as Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Florida. Vanderbilt isn't even on the radar.

But look how Vanderbilt compares to Florida according to stats from warrennolan.com.

.................................... SOS* ..... Quadrant Records (NET)
TEAM ..... W - L .. NET .. RPI .. ALL .. NC ... Q1 ... Q2 ... Q3 ... Q4
Vanderbilt 13-12 ... 93 ... 57 ... 02 .. 16 .. 3-7 .. 3-4 .. 2-0 .. 5-1
Florida .. 13-12 ... 53 ... 78 ... 17 .. 63 .. 2-9 .. 1-2 .. 6-1 .. 4-0

*Strength of Schedule is a factor in RPI. I suppose it is a factor in NET.

Florida has a massive 40-rank lead over Vanderbilt in NET, but most of the other factors point to the 'Dores:

Overall Won-Lost Record even, but Vanderbilt won head-to-head
Vanderbilt has much better RPI rank
Strength-of-Schedule in Vanderbilt's favor
Vanderbilt more successful in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games
Vanderbilt lost one Q4 game while Florida lost one Q3 game

If Florida is on the outside looking in with "Work to do," then Vanderbilt should at least be considered "Looking over Florida's shoulder."

[utahozzie]

Committee looks at how you finish and also should take into consideration robins being injured for few games

[Jason94]

Jason94 or someone else here may know how much the massive loss at Alabama hurt Vanderbilt. It seems as though we tumbled about 20 NET ranking positions following the one game and that may be insurmountable.

I wonder if the Selection Committee (which probably has this tool) might look at the Vanderbilt NET as if we didn't even play that game. "Take out one game and Vanderbilt's NET is on the NCAA Bubble!"

The RPI doesn't consider margin of loss or offensive efficiency or whatever ... just which team won and was the game Home, Away or Neutral.

The current ESPN Bubble Watch (Feb. 12) lists SEC teams with "Work to do" as Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Florida. Vanderbilt isn't even on the radar.

But look how Vanderbilt compares to Florida according to stats from warrennolan.com.

.................................... SOS* ..... Quadrant Records (NET)
TEAM ..... W - L .. NET .. RPI .. ALL .. NC ... Q1 ... Q2 ... Q3 ... Q4
Vanderbilt 13-12 ... 93 ... 57 ... 02 .. 16 .. 3-7 .. 3-4 .. 2-0 .. 5-1
Florida .. 13-12 ... 53 ... 78 ... 17 .. 63 .. 2-9 .. 1-2 .. 6-1 .. 4-0

*Strength of Schedule is a factor in RPI. I suppose it is a factor in NET.

Florida has a massive 40-rank lead over Vanderbilt in NET, but most of the other factors point to the 'Dores:

Overall Won-Lost Record even, but Vanderbilt won head-to-head
Vanderbilt has much better RPI rank
Strength-of-Schedule in Vanderbilt's favor
Vanderbilt more successful in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games
Vanderbilt lost one Q4 game while Florida lost one Q3 game

If Florida is on the outside looking in with "Work to do," then Vanderbilt should at least be considered "Looking over Florida's shoulder."

My impression was that NET placed a limit on how much of a margin would affect the ratings, something like after a 20 or 30 point margin it all counts the same, but that could be ESPN. But this is a bit illustrative of why the RPI is pretty flawed. 50% of the rating is simply the record of your opponent - it has nothing to do with whether you actually beat those opponents. We lost to a large number of teams that are doing well in their respective conferences, which per the RPI is a good thing, despite the fact that we played quite poorly in a number of those games, and if we were to play them again, would probably win them by double digi

What generally hurts our tournament resume is the lack of wins and a lot of losses, specifically in the non-conference schedule. We've also been a bit lucky in that our wins have generally been pretty close but we've only got three wins all season by more than 10 points, and two of those were against really bad teams. That gets reflected in efficiency rankings. UF OTOH has no bad losses - the 1 loss in quadrant three was to us this past weekend. They have had neutral luck in conference games as they've slightly outscored their opponents, while we've been outscored by 8.5 point per 100 possessions but we share the same conference record. A lot of that is the Bama loss, but the other Bama loss, the UT loss and the UK losses were not close either.

We basically need to do something really impressive at the end of the season to just get back onto the radar of the committee. Winning 9 in a row or 8 of 9 would be a just the thing to do so.

[dallasdore]

We have basically zero chance of making the NCAAs unless we were to win the SEC tourney. So none of this matters in the least, unfortunately. We are not going. I'm not sure why it keeps getting brought up.

Bad losses killed our NCAA chances a long time ago.

I do think we can comfortably make the NIT, though. And I think we probably will.

[Obvious]

The 2015-16 and 2016-17 season both ended with us making the NCAA tournament. Stallings final year (2015-16) saw us win 19 games total with 11 conference wins. Bruce Drew’s first season was the following season and we won 19 games and 10 of this were conference wins. That season didn’t feature any strong non conference wins and I don’t remember beating many ranked teams. I can deep dive into road wins and look at those if we need. Stallings final season we lost in our only conference tournament game. Drews first season we only won 2 sec tournament games. Both seasons we were on the bubble at the end and somewhat miraculously got in the NCAA tournament. We still have games and a conference tournament to play and there is a better than zero percent chance of making the tournament.

[Obvious]

The 2015-16 and 2016-17 season both ended with us making the NCAA tournament. Stallings final year (2015-16) saw us win 19 games total with 11 conference wins. Bruce Drew’s first season was the following season and we won 19 games and 10 of this were conference wins. That season didn’t feature any strong non conference wins and I don’t remember beating many ranked teams. I can deep dive into road wins and look at those if we need. Stallings final season we lost in our only conference tournament game. Drews first season we only won 2 sec tournament games. Both seasons we were on the bubble at the end and somewhat miraculously got in the NCAA tournament. We still have games and a conference tournament to play and there is a better than zero percent chance of making the tournament.

Right now we have the possibility of another 19 win season with 12 conference wins. I’ll lower the bar to an 18 win season and with 11 conference wins. And say at least 2 sec tournament wins.
We have a tough strength of schedule and a decent rpi. I could be wrong but not as wrong as Dallasdore.

[dore74]

as said by that great sage Al Davis

"Just Win Baby"

6-0 lock; 5-1, don't bet against it; anything else NIT (hopefully). Every game from here on out is a must win, starting tonight.

[Obvious]

as said by that great sage Al Davis

"Just Win Baby"

6-0 lock; 5-1, don't bet against it; anything else NIT (hopefully). Every game from here on out is a must win, starting tonight.

If we lose both games this week then we’re out. I’ll also add that the we had two wins against ranked opponents in the two prior seasons I mentioned. We have two so far this season. I prefer expecting to win games.

[Versus75]

North Carolina after its home loss to Miami last night.

.................................... SOS* ..... Quadrant Records (NET)
TEAM ..... W - L .. NET .. RPI .. ALL .. NC ... Q1 ... Q2 ... Q3 ... Q4
Vanderbilt 13-12 ... 93 ... 57 ... 02 .. 16 .. 3-7 .. 3-4 .. 2-0 .. 5-1
Florida .. 13-12 ... 53 ... 78 ... 17 .. 63 .. 2-9 .. 1-2 .. 6-1 .. 4-0
UNC ...... 16-10 ... 46 ... 37 ... 12 .. 06 .. 0-9 .. 6-1 .. 3-0 .. 7-0

North Carolina has a better overall record while playing in the 7th or 8th best conference this year (SEC is #3). Carolina has achieved decent NET and RPI rankings, but still is winless in Quadrant 1 games. Q1 and Q2 combined 6-10 compared to 6-11 for Vanderbilt. We are not much worse than the Tar Heels.

[mathguy]

We have basically zero chance of making the NCAAs unless we were to win the SEC tourney. So none of this matters in the least, unfortunately. We are not going. I'm not sure why it keeps getting brought up.

Bad losses killed our NCAA chances a long time ago.

I do think we can comfortably make the NIT, though. And I think we probably will.

Hypothetically speaking, if we run the table, and finish the regular season 19-12 (12-6) with wins over UT, UK, and Auburn, we will find our way in.

You can decide what you think of our chances are of winning tonight and then 5 more in a row ... but are chances are definitely not zero.

Even at 18-13 (11-7) we would be deserving of (at least) a long look.

[mathguy]

Jason94 or someone else here may know how much the massive loss at Alabama hurt Vanderbilt. It seems as though we tumbled about 20 NET ranking positions following the one game and that may be insurmountable.

I wonder if the Selection Committee (which probably has this tool) might look at the Vanderbilt NET as if we didn't even play that game. "Take out one game and Vanderbilt's NET is on the NCAA Bubble!"

Interesting, but not something I'm worried about.

I may not always agree with the selection committees decisions, but when it comes down to it, they do a deep dive on the teams they are considering. The NET, like every other measure the committee has, is just 1 data point out of several that the committee uses.

If we do enough to get in, we'll get there. My only concern is that for years and years the committee has seemed to pay virtually no attention to the SEC tournament. So, short of winning it all and forcing them to give us an automatic bid, I don't think we really have much of a chance to impress the committee with tournament wins.

[Jason94]

We have basically zero chance of making the NCAAs unless we were to win the SEC tourney. So none of this matters in the least, unfortunately. We are not going. I'm not sure why it keeps getting brought up.

Bad losses killed our NCAA chances a long time ago.

I do think we can comfortably make the NIT, though. And I think we probably will.

Hypothetically speaking, if we run the table, and finish the regular season 19-12 (12-6) with wins over UT, UK, and Auburn, we will find our way in.

You can decide what you think of our chances are of winning tonight and then 5 more in a row ... but are chances are definitely not zero.

Even at 18-13 (11-7) we would be deserving of (at least) a long look.

I agree with this - run the table and get a win in the SEC-T and we are in IMO - 100% for reasons I've stated elsewhere - wins against at least 4 teams also on the bubble, wins at UK and against Auburn and MSU, sweep against UF. 20 wins would actually get us around a 7 or 8 seed probably. Get to 18-13 and two wins in the SEC-T also gets it done but we would probably be close to the play in game. Any less than 18 regular season wins and we would have to win the SEC-T.

Best case without winning the SEC-T would be win out in regular season and get to Sunday and lose in finals. That would get us to 23-13 (starting play on Thursday), but if we run the table we might get the double bye to Friday and that would make us 22-13, but with a win against (most likely) Bama or UT. I think that would get us as high as a #6 seed. Win out and the SEC-T probably doesn't change the seed too much - maybe a #5 but that seems unlikely.

So things are wide open, as the possibilities are as wide ranging as losing out and missing postseason altogether to winning out and getting a good single digit seed. We probably can only lose three more games to have a chance of making that happen and that would still be a bit of a long shot. 2 losses or less (including SEC-T) and I think we are in.

[alathIN]

Winning out the regular season is such a tall.order.
I don't think any of the remaining opponents are invincible but they VU isn't invincible either. The likelihood of having an off game over a five game stretch is pretty high.

I wonder how the VU fan base would react to an NIT bid at this point. Two weeks ago it would have looked like a pipe dream. Now that we've seen how good this team can be it would be a disappointment.

[charlestonalum]

Winning out the regular season is such a tall.order.
I don't think any of the remaining opponents are invincible but they VU isn't invincible either. The likelihood of having an off game over a five game stretch is pretty high.

I wonder how the VU fan base would react to an NIT bid at this point. Two weeks ago it would have looked like a pipe dream. Now that we've seen how good this team can be it would be a disappointment.

The goal always should be NCAA T, but losing Pippen and with injuries during this season, to continue building the program back from the disastrous low of previous coach, back to back NIT is still a positive. I hope for NCAA, but would be satisfied with NIT looking forward to making NCAA next season. We have a very good coach who is still getting better as is the program.

[mathguy]

Winning out the regular season is such a tall.order.
I don't think any of the remaining opponents are invincible but they VU isn't invincible either. The likelihood of having an off game over a five game stretch is pretty high.

I wonder how the VU fan base would react to an NIT bid at this point. Two weeks ago it would have looked like a pipe dream. Now that we've seen how good this team can be it would be a disappointment.

Considering where we were a month ago, and the fast that most media outlets at that point were saying "told ya so" not "what happened?", I'll still be pleased with an NIT bid. Based on the season through today, to be honest its probably what we deserve.

But now that we have a couple of nice wins, and a little bit of a streak, and Robbins is healthy ... yeah, I'm having fun trying to find ways for us to get in the big tourney.

[baseball1234]

It seems that we will have to win all but one of the remaining conference games, but a win at Rupp, rightfully or wrongfully, will go a long way in the decision.

[TwoSaints]

Committee looks at how you finish and also should take into consideration robins being injured for few games

The committee changed their rules a couple of years ago. They now no longer value late-season wins any more than early-season ones. They are allowed, however, to consider injuries. And I think that will help mitigate the Alabama loss a bit. But probably only when they get down to the end and start comparing specific teams that are similarly rated. They can look at that loss as an outlier (which it obviously is) and see that key players were missing. (The fact that Alabama might be a #1 seed won't hurt either.) So I think it will hurt is in the initial rankings, but if we can win enough to get into the bubble conversation than it will hurt us much less.

That Grambling loss is going to hurt us way more than Alabama.

[Jason94]

Committee looks at how you finish and also should take into consideration robins being injured for few games

The committee changed their rules a couple of years ago. They now no longer value late-season wins any more than early-season ones. They are allowed, however, to consider injuries. And I think that will help mitigate the Alabama loss a bit. But probably only when they get down to the end and start comparing specific teams that are similarly rated. They can look at that loss as an outlier (which it obviously is) and see that key players were missing. (The fact that Alabama might be a #1 seed won't hurt either.) So I think it will hurt is in the initial rankings, but if we can win enough to get into the bubble conversation than it will hurt us much less.

That Grambling loss is going to hurt us way more than Alabama.

Technically Robbins was not injured (though he was just coming off of injury) for that game. Does the committee get that deep into the weeds on something like that?

[utahozzie]

Liam missed the Alabama game in memorial…

[Jason94]

Winning out the regular season is such a tall.order.
I don't think any of the remaining opponents are invincible but they VU isn't invincible either. The likelihood of having an off game over a five game stretch is pretty high.

I wonder how the VU fan base would react to an NIT bid at this point. Two weeks ago it would have looked like a pipe dream. Now that we've seen how good this team can be it would be a disappointment.

Considering where we were a month ago, and the fast that most media outlets at that point were saying "told ya so" not "what happened?", I'll still be pleased with an NIT bid. Based on the season through today, to be honest its probably what we deserve.

But now that we have a couple of nice wins, and a little bit of a streak, and Robbins is healthy ... yeah, I'm having fun trying to find ways for us to get in the big tourney.

Last season we were a tournament quality team at the end of the season, but due to injuries to both Chatman and Robbins we missed the tournament. This season despite losing Pippen, Robbins has been much better than any one could have expected, and part of his missed playing time was self inflicted, as was the decision to keep him out of the starting lineup for half of the games he's played in and the first 11 of 18 games. An NIT bid will be what we would have earned, but the season will have been a missed opportunity IMO should we miss the tournament. I have no doubt that the team playing right now would easily beat Grambling State at home and would also beat Southern Miss handily. I think we would have won at least one game of Memphis, NCSU, St. Mary's, and VCU, and we could have come out of the OOC schedule at 9-4 of 10-3 instead of 7-6. Standing here today with a 16-10 or 17-9 record would be a whole lot different than 14-12.

So it is difficult to not be a little disappointed by not making the tournament when you have probably the best center we've had since at least Purdue. Robbins has been better than Kornet, Jones, Ezeli and Ogilvy. But the disappointment is certainly a lot less than what it was a few weeks ago.