ESPN ANALYTICS MATCHUP PREDICTOR

[Versus75]

Doesn't anyone in Bristol look at the numbers and say, "This ain't right?"

As of Saturday night, presumably before the results of the day were calculated, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog by this computer program in all four of the remaining regular season games.

The numbers moved only so very slightly toward the 'Dores AFTER we beat Auburn, LSU lost at home to the second or third worst team in the SEC, and Florida took a big loss without its top player.

Now, I'm not gonna predict that we will win all four games but WE SHOULD BE FAVORITES AT LSU and HOME VERSUS FLORIDA. I could add the home game against Mississippi State to that list.

ESPN MATCHUP PREDICTOR .... Sat pm ......... Sun am

Wed. Feb. 22 @ LSU .. LSU .. 55.8% ... LSU .. 52.2%
Sat. Feb. 25 v FLA .. FLA .. 57.3% ... FLA .. 53.9%
Wed. Mar. 01 @ KY ... KY ... 90.3% ... KY ... 91.1%
Sat. Mar. 04 v MSU .. MSU .. 57.0% ... MSU .. 56.5%

[PeteFox]

These analytics are totally worthless. I wonder what they said about the the 5 games in the latest streak.

[Lynchsr]

Vandy only had a 30.3% chance to beat Auburn, so maybe let everyone keep underestimating poor old Vandy. Wink wink

[UltimateVUFan]

Vandy only had a 30.3% chance to beat Auburn, so maybe let everyone keep underestimating poor old Vandy. Wink wink

I guarantee not a single SEC coach is underestimating VU at this point.

[FrontDore]

LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?

[Seadog73]

"LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?"

Well because nobody loses 14 in a row except Vandy, so LSU is favored to beat Vandy - according to the time warp dance I suppose.

[SteveE79]

LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?

The Law of Averages?

[Obvious]

LSU has lost 14 in a row. How can they be favored over anyone?

The Law of Averages?

Odds start over every game. Just because a team is bound to win eventually doesn’t mean they should be favored that way.

[Nashmann]

I am glad we are underdogs!!! We seem to play better!

[cc11316]

I would think a Vandy -4 @ LSU sounds about right. Honestly, though I'm not willing to put money on any Vandy game as you just never know. I pray Robbins can stay on the floor, Manjon can continue to push and dish, Lawrence confidence continues to grow and Stute's 3's start to fall. If that happens, this season could be extended for a while.

[Jason94]

Doesn't anyone in Bristol look at the numbers and say, "This ain't right?"

As of Saturday night, presumably before the results of the day were calculated, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog by this computer program in all four of the remaining regular season games.

The numbers moved only so very slightly toward the 'Dores AFTER we beat Auburn, LSU lost at home to the second or third worst team in the SEC, and Florida took a big loss without its top player.

Now, I'm not gonna predict that we will win all four games but WE SHOULD BE FAVORITES AT LSU and HOME VERSUS FLORIDA. I could add the home game against Mississippi State to that list.

ESPN MATCHUP PREDICTOR .... Sat pm ......... Sun am

Wed. Feb. 22 @ LSU .. LSU .. 55.8% ... LSU .. 52.2%
Sat. Feb. 25 v FLA .. FLA .. 57.3% ... FLA .. 53.9%
Wed. Mar. 01 @ KY ... KY ... 90.3% ... KY ... 91.1%
Sat. Mar. 04 v MSU .. MSU .. 57.0% ... MSU .. 56.5%

These predictions use advanced metrics to figure out the numbers as nobody can actually watch every single game to compare all of the teams. Those metrics generally don't weigh how a team is playing at the moment but uses the entire season, and while we started 7-6, LSU started 12-1, so despite their loss streak their record is only 3 games worse than ours is. Additionally they are getting "credit" for playing the toughest schedule in conference. For us, prior to the last 5 games we were not really a consideration for either the NIT or NCAA tournament based on how we had played. And while the last 5 games have been fantastic, from a numbers perspective, we've won 3 games by a single possession, all at home. This is where the luck factor comes into play.

For an observer who has watched us play the last few weeks it would seem that we should be an obvious favorite, but efficiency metrics would say that we are "lucky", and we are playing a team on the road, which confers a slight point advantage to the home team. Kenpom has us as a 2 point favorite FWIW, but I don't think anyone will show us as a huge favorite.

What would probably help us a lot would be a 15 point win tomorrow, basically have the team step on the gas and run them out of the gym.

[commadore]

Doesn't anyone in Bristol look at the numbers and say, "This ain't right?"

As of Saturday night, presumably before the results of the day were calculated, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog by this computer program in all four of the remaining regular season games.

The numbers moved only so very slightly toward the 'Dores AFTER we beat Auburn, LSU lost at home to the second or third worst team in the SEC, and Florida took a big loss without its top player.

Now, I'm not gonna predict that we will win all four games but WE SHOULD BE FAVORITES AT LSU and HOME VERSUS FLORIDA. I could add the home game against Mississippi State to that list.

ESPN MATCHUP PREDICTOR .... Sat pm ......... Sun am

Wed. Feb. 22 @ LSU .. LSU .. 55.8% ... LSU .. 52.2%
Sat. Feb. 25 v FLA .. FLA .. 57.3% ... FLA .. 53.9%
Wed. Mar. 01 @ KY ... KY ... 90.3% ... KY ... 91.1%
Sat. Mar. 04 v MSU .. MSU .. 57.0% ... MSU .. 56.5%

These predictions use advanced metrics to figure out the numbers as nobody can actually watch every single game to compare all of the teams. Those metrics generally don't weigh how a team is playing at the moment but uses the entire season, and while we started 7-6, LSU started 12-1, so despite their loss streak their record is only 3 games worse than ours is. Additionally they are getting "credit" for playing the toughest schedule in conference. For us, prior to the last 5 games we were not really a consideration for either the NIT or NCAA tournament based on how we had played. And while the last 5 games have been fantastic, from a numbers perspective, we've won 3 games by a single possession, all at home. This is where the luck factor comes into play.

For an observer who has watched us play the last few weeks it would seem that we should be an obvious favorite, but efficiency metrics would say that we are "lucky", and we are playing a team on the road, which confers a slight point advantage to the home team. Kenpom has us as a 2 point favorite FWIW, but I don't think anyone will show us as a huge favorite.

What would probably help us a lot would be a 15 point win tomorrow, basically have the team step on the gas and run them out of the gym.

Which is practically what SC did to them. If they could, we can.