Not the end of the world, but...

[Jason94]

The USC game was one that we were a 2 possession favorite and ended up losing by 1 possession - basically not the best outcome to be sure, but not one that was shocking or where we played a horrible game (kind of the inverse of the Ark game). Teams will drop those games from time to time, and it is a similar loss in a lot of ways to the Temple game, though less bad IMO. However, you want to counter-balance such losses with good wins, such as BYU and Arkansas, and ideally have more of the former than the latter, especially since of the remaining 16 games we only have 4 more games where we will be favored - it is not great for us to be coming up on the losing end on our relatively scares games where we should win.

The inside scoring disparity is an issue - USC shot 73.5% from inside the arc on 35 shots while we went 10-24 inside the arc. That is a ridiculous shooting percentage for a team an is indicative that we are likely out of position and allowing uncontested looks. Even Ark shot 19-32 from inside the arc (almost 60%) so this isn't likely solely due to USC having a good night from mid-range. We have generated a lot of turnovers in our first two SEC games and overall, but it is likely that this style of defense leads to this poor outcome on 2 pt shots. We are also turning the ball over at the same rate as our opponents, but our shooting percentage inside the arc has been bad at 45%. We are currently being saved by our ability to get to the line at an almost crazy rate, and our improved three point shooting from the pre-conference season.

This is the result of our having essentially zero inside game, which allows teams to double team and help off their assignments to harass Pippen, resulting in a lot of turnovers from him (14 in two SEC games). Amazingly our inside game is worse than it was last year when we had Obinna, QMB and Brown splitting time at the center spot, as Disu played a decent amount of center, and the three of them had a number of fouls to give. QMB is doing his best and playing admirably, but is almost reluctant to shoot and teams are aware of this is setting up their defenses. Mann is really undersized, but at least he is a gamer inside, and if Frank played in the same manner, he would get more PT. This is where adding a Robbins would make a massive impact on the team - being able to have Robbins and QMB split time at the 5 and moving Mann to the 4 gives us some really effective options there. Stute has played well this season, but is a wing forced to play the 4 because we don't have anyone else with size.

I hope QMB is able to return next season, because our depth issue in the post is possibly going to be an issue next season - Mann is hopefully returning, and at the moment is the only reliable post returning and is best suited at the 4 (does a decent James Siakam impersonation).

[quasidiehardvandyfan]

Agree on inside presence being a concern for the remainder of this year and certainly next year, depending on who returns. If QMB and Mann were to return, I would expect an addition of Dort to improve that 45%, but recognize it's rare for Freshman big men to have a massive impact in year 1.

Question about Robbins - Given his playing < 50% of games this season, wouldn't he qualify for the medical redshirt and therefore an additional year of eligibility?

Looking at the 13 scholarships for next year:
1. We have 4 incoming players (Dia, Dort, Shelby, Smith).
2. We have 2 openings in Peyton Daniels'/Weikert Scholarship and Pippen Jr (have to assume he's out).

Seemingly we'd need at least 3 other transfers (or 2 + QMB chooses to graduate) in order to open up that spot, so maybe it's a moot point. If recent history has taught us anything, we'll have at least 1 other transfer and likely 2.

So hypothetically, if we had that extra spot, would Robbins be the one to take it?

[Jason94]

Agree on inside presence being a concern for the remainder of this year and certainly next year, depending on who returns. If QMB and Mann were to return, I would expect an addition of Dort to improve that 45%, but recognize it's rare for Freshman big men to have a massive impact in year 1.

Question about Robbins - Given his playing < 50% of games this season, wouldn't he qualify for the medical redshirt and therefore an additional year of eligibility?

Looking at the 13 scholarships for next year:
1. We have 4 incoming players (Dia, Dort, Shelby, Smith).
2. We have 2 openings in Peyton Daniels'/Weikert Scholarship and Pippen Jr (have to assume he's out).

Seemingly we'd need at least 3 other transfers (or 2 + QMB chooses to graduate) in order to open up that spot, so maybe it's a moot point. If recent history has taught us anything, we'll have at least 1 other transfer and likely 2.

So hypothetically, if we had that extra spot, would Robbins be the one to take it?

To the best of my understanding the NCAA provided an extra year of eligibility to anyone who was eligible and played during the 20-21 season, essentially allowing that season to not count against them in their 4 seasons of eligibility. Based on this the following individuals would be eligible for an extra season beyond this one:

Everyone on the roster with the exception of the true freshmen and Rodney Chatman, who is technically using his extra season this year.

Robbins actually has two seasons of eligibility left, though my understanding of the hardship rules is that if he plays at all this seasons it will count as one of the seasons. The NCAA really ought to allow an increase of scholarships for the next season or two to 15 to account for this IMO.

I think Chatman is done regardless for next season, so that is three openings assuming Pippen is gone, which means that we still need to find another opening before we can think about where an extra opening would be for say, Robbins. One would guess that in today's environment you get at least two transfers, but the question becomes who? There are usually one that makes sense due to PT but unfortunately seems to be one that could be a major contributor who thinks the grass is greener elsewhere (like Disu).

[MrMemorial]

Pippen's status in the mock drafts for 2022 is not very good right now. That doesn't guarantee he comes back next season. But it doesn't rule out that he might. It would be very cool if Robbins returns for a full season.

[Jason94]

Pippen's status in the mock drafts for 2022 is not very good right now. That doesn't guarantee he comes back next season. But it doesn't rule out that he might. It would be very cool if Robbins returns for a full season.

At this point, it might be more critical that Robbins returns than Pippen, not because Pippen isn't super valuable or overrated, but because of how thin we are in the post. Obviously having both back would be better, but that would require a number of players currently on the roster not returning. Pippen technically has 2 seasons of eligibility after this one as well FWIW.

[quasidiehardvandyfan]

That's right, totally forgot about Chatman's scholarship. That means only 2 exits (assuming Pippen is gone) in order to free up another year for Robbins, which recent history would say is likely.

I hear you on a potential high performer leaving the program, however I'd like to hope Disu was an exception, not the norm. While we've seen guys with big minutes leave before - Kedren Johnson, Demarre Carrol come to mind - it's been more common to see guys averaging under 15 mpg taking their talents elsewhere.

If this were to play out as described, I'd like to think we'd offer Robbins the opportunity for another year vs hitting the portal or taking a flier on a 2022/2023 late decision 3 star.

[vandybl]

Vandy will probably have additional spots open for next year. Players currently not getting many minutes will be looking for other options, plus there are four new players coming in that are good and will potentially take more of the available court time. The coaches should be able to go out and recruit at least three new players for 2022-2023. We shall see. Go Vandy!

[Nashmann]

Can you imagine Shelby and Pippen playing together with Robbins at the 5??

[MrMemorial]

Why does nobody ever mention Colin Smith? He only had offers from Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Georgetown, UCLA, Auburn, etc. If he stays healthy, the guy has a chance to be the best basketball player in school history. I'm pretty psyched that he is headed to West End.

And don't sleep on Malik Dia. Many years, he would have been our top recruit. I've watched some of his AAU footage and his cross-over move on the rim-run combined with nice passing and ability to follow his own shot makes him the hustling glue-guy that every team needs one of. Kind of like Eric Reid power forward size combined with Jordan Wright small and combo forward skills.

[Jason94]

Why does nobody ever mention Colin Smith? He only had offers from Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Georgetown, UCLA, Auburn, etc. If he stays healthy, the guy has a chance to be the best basketball player in school history. I'm pretty psyched that he is headed to West End.

And don't sleep on Malik Dia. Many years, he would have been our top recruit. I've watched some of his AAU footage and his cross-over move on the rim-run combined with nice passing and ability to follow his own shot makes him the hustling glue-guy that every team needs one of. Kind of like Eric Reid power forward size combined with Jordan Wright small and combo forward skills.

If history is any guide, one of the freshmen will be a future star - someone who comes in and is starting and a top 3 option by mid-season, another will be a strong bench contributor, and the last two will struggle somewhat to be consistent. I don't know which will be which, outside of Dort seeming the most likely to be the top guy give his size and highest ranking. So I think we can count on two of the four freshmen to be big contributors, but I would be pleasantly surprised if all four of them are immediate stars. This is a good recruiting class, but not historic from a Vandy perspective - we seem to get a class of this size and ranking about every four years since around 2000. I see it as a similar class to the Freije, Foster, Taylor, Johnson, and Baldwin classes. Each were really successful generally overall for the program, but each took at least a year to really hit their strides.

[Jason94]

That's right, totally forgot about Chatman's scholarship. That means only 2 exits (assuming Pippen is gone) in order to free up another year for Robbins, which recent history would say is likely.

I hear you on a potential high performer leaving the program, however I'd like to hope Disu was an exception, not the norm. While we've seen guys with big minutes leave before - Kedren Johnson, Demarre Carrol come to mind - it's been more common to see guys averaging under 15 mpg taking their talents elsewhere.

If this were to play out as described, I'd like to think we'd offer Robbins the opportunity for another year vs hitting the portal or taking a flier on a 2022/2023 late decision 3 star.

Recently, we've had a lot of players who were starters or projected starters leave for various reasons - Lee, Nesmith and Disu were the three that hurt the worst but have had other players who could have been good contributors leave as well - Payton Willis, Yanni Wetzel, Max Evans, and Clevon Brown may not have been stars but would have been at the very least rotational players and significantly improved each of the seasons that CJS has had.