Roster Thoughts

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Roster Thoughts

Post by Jason94 »

With Lawrence back, our roster going into next season looks like this (to my understanding):

PG - Manjon, Lewis, West
SG - Lawrence, Taylor, Rivera-Torres
SF - Roberts, Presley, Smith
PF - Lubin
C - Kamateros, Dort, Lang

Note the positions are just what is listed at verbalcommits, since I don't think that Vucommodres has updated the roster just yet.

On paper it seems like we are a bit thin at the post, but everyone listed at SG or SF outside of Lawrence is listed as being 6'-6" or taller, and can reasonably be expected to play at least one position larger than what they are listed. Therefore I would guess our starting lineup would look like this at the start of the season:

PG - Manjon
SG - Lawrence
SF - Taylor
PF - Smith
C - Kamateros/Dort/Lubin

1-4 the starting lineup is really good, with SEC level players in each spot, and two players in Manjon and Lawrence who are at least in the top half at their positions, if not all-SEC level. At Center we have three options, Kamateros being the most experienced but lowest ceiling player, with Dort being at the other end of the spectrum, as a very high ceiling but inexperienced player. Lubin combines both experience with talent, but is undersized at the 5. Not to say that the options are bad, just that each has his own strengths and weaknesses and I could reasonably see any of them starting at some point.

Lawrence should be our alpha dog, leading scorer and someone who is on the court 30-35 mpg. Manjon and Taylor can both give us low double digits (10-12 ppg), and I could easily see Smith adding 8-10 ppg. That is 40-45 ppg out of the starting 1-4 spots, and you can probably get 5 ppg from the starter at the 5.

The bench will include the following:

Two of the centers who don't start, Lewis, and some combination of Presley, West, Roberts and Rivera-Torres.

It will be interesting to see how much time a player like West gets - very talented, but now playing behind two upper classmen who are likely to be on the court 60-70 mpg. Plus at point (where West was recruited) we have an experienced backup in Lewis. I also don't know who of Presley, Roberts or Rivera-Torres will shine and grab PT. It may be that the best path to PT is showing some ability to defend the 4 - all are tall and long enough to do so.

This is by far the best roster CJS has had on paper - he has a true PG who is proven and a SG who is the best scorer he's had at that position. Smith and Taylor are guys who can shoot the ball from outside, and he has three good options at center. Lots of size overall at the wing spots, meaning we have some defensive versatility. Very exciting for the upcoming season.


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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by MrMemorial »

I view Smith as a "combo" forward which would include PF. But I don't watch much basketball, so what do I know?
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Obvious »

MrMemorial wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:50 pm I view Smith as a "combo" forward which would include PF. But I don't watch much basketball, so what do I know?
Whether we play big or small ball, Smith will probably get the third most minutes on the team. I don’t really like to project players at designated positions.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Jason94 »

MrMemorial wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:50 pm I view Smith as a "combo" forward which would include PF. But I don't watch much basketball, so what do I know?
What in the post gave you the idea that I disagreed?
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by MrMemorial »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:25 pm
MrMemorial wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:50 pm I view Smith as a "combo" forward which would include PF. But I don't watch much basketball, so what do I know?
What in the post gave you the idea that I disagreed?
It's called "self-deprecating humor" - you know, like David Letterman was good at?
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by buffy »

How 'bout an 'adda-boy' to Coach Stackhouse. We were all considering hara-kiri after the portal opened, and now we're clearly in better shape. I'm absolutely grateful and honored to have Mr. Stackhouse as our coach. The guy gives everything he has.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by UltimateVUFan »

buffy wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:55 pm How 'bout an 'adda-boy' to Coach Stackhouse. We were all considering hara-kiri after the portal opened, and now we're clearly in better shape. I'm absolutely grateful and honored to have Mr. Stackhouse as our coach. The guy gives everything he has.
Nice hara-kiri reference
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by bernstml19 »

Smith good. I like him at SF and Lubin at PF.

Staaaartas:
PG - Manjon
SG - Lawrence
SF - Smith/Taylor
PF - Lubin/Smith
C - Kamateros/Dort

probably will be a mix of those at starting 5. If Lubin turns out to be the guy in the highlights and Colin Smith picks it up from last year we are a tournament team.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by geeznotagain »

bernstml19 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:27 pm Smith good. I like him at SF and Lubin at PF.

Staaaartas:
PG - Manjon
SG - Lawrence
SF - Smith/Taylor
PF - Lubin/Smith
C - Kamateros/Dort

probably will be a mix of those at starting 5. If Lubin turns out to be the guy in the highlights and Colin Smith picks it up from last year we are a tournament team.
I think it's safe to say that no one is as good as their highlight reel.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Foreverhopeful »

buffy wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:55 pm How 'bout an 'adda-boy' to Coach Stackhouse. We were all considering hara-kiri after the portal opened, and now we're clearly in better shape. I'm absolutely grateful and honored to have Mr. Stackhouse as our coach. The guy gives everything he has.
THIS.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Jason94 »

buffy wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:55 pm How 'bout an 'adda-boy' to Coach Stackhouse. We were all considering hara-kiri after the portal opened, and now we're clearly in better shape. I'm absolutely grateful and honored to have Mr. Stackhouse as our coach. The guy gives everything he has.
Stackhouse has played things masterfully, but I wasn't particularly perturbed by any of the departures and was only worried when Lawrence entered the portal. But CJS had an opportunity to really correct a number of recruiting misses and for the most part, he did so in a very big way. I don't have a doubt that had we had Lubin and Taylor instead of Stute and Thomas last season that we would have made the tournament. It was always true that Stute, Thomas, QMB, Dia and Shelby's production from last season were completely replaceable. I've noted before that it was practically a miracle that CJS almost took a team to the tournament while playing Trey Thomas over 20 MPG while Thomas struggled horribly at the one thing that he was supposed to be good at. If we get off to anywhere near a decent start I'll be shocked if we don't make the tournament next season.

I did note that the new coach of the PIstons got a $78.5 million contract. If someone offers CJS a nba job, he is gone and I don't blame him. That is serious FU money.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Jason94 »

bernstml19 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:27 pm Smith good. I like him at SF and Lubin at PF.

Staaaartas:
PG - Manjon
SG - Lawrence
SF - Smith/Taylor
PF - Lubin/Smith
C - Kamateros/Dort

probably will be a mix of those at starting 5. If Lubin turns out to be the guy in the highlights and Colin Smith picks it up from last year we are a tournament team.
If we didn't have Taylor, a guy who could lead the team in three point shooting next season ready to step in at the 3, I would probably agree with you. But IMO, since Smith is likely to start either way, Taylor will give us more than Kamateros or Dort will, so it makes sense to start both Taylor and Smith rather than have him split time with Taylor. And this season we won't be hurt size wise as much since Taylor is 6'-6" and Smith is 6'-8", and we aren't going to bring in a 6' Thomas to play 20+ MPG at the 3.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Nashmann »

I would like to see Smith work on his inside play......offense that is and rebounding.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Obvious »

My personal pick for a sleeper next year is Paul Lewis. He hit some very big shots down the stretch last season. I really like his confidence and clutch shot making abilities.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by mathguy »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:18 pm
I did note that the new coach of the PIstons got a $78.5 million contract. If someone offers CJS a nba job, he is gone and I don't blame him. That is serious FU money.
Honestly, given what the NCAA has become, I don't know why anyone - and I do mean *ANYONE* - would continue to coach in the NCAA if an NBA job offer (even as an assistant) was available. Even without a monster contract like the Pistons were offering, the pay is apt to be competitive for a gig that is relatively cushy and actually allows for an off season.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by TwoSaints »

mathguy wrote: Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:58 pm
Jason94 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:18 pm
I did note that the new coach of the PIstons got a $78.5 million contract. If someone offers CJS a nba job, he is gone and I don't blame him. That is serious FU money.
Honestly, given what the NCAA has become, I don't know why anyone - and I do mean *ANYONE* - would continue to coach in the NCAA if an NBA job offer (even as an assistant) was available. Even without a monster contract like the Pistons were offering, the pay is apt to be competitive for a gig that is relatively cushy and actually allows for an off season.
Two things on this: First, Detroit threw crazy money at Williams because, well, Detroit. Otherwise he'd have gone to a contender. So Monty is now the highest-paid coach in the NBA, earning as much as the two coaches in the finals make combined. A first-time coach like Stack wouldn't have made anywhere near that amount.

Second, a reasonably successful NCAA coach can typically expect to remain in their post for decades if they avoid scandals, controversies, and legal issues. In the NBA, very successful coaches frequently get fired. Milwaukee's head coach, Mike Budenholzer, was fired this year despite having the best record in the league, having won a championship less than two years ago, and having developed a two-time MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo). Toronto's head coach, Nick Nurse, was fired despite having a strong won-loss record and having won a championship in 2019. Doc Rivers was fired despite his obvious winning pedigree (including a championship in 2008), and of course Monty Williams was fired despite having led a 19-win Phoenix Suns team to the 2021 Finals within two years, and then following that up with the league's best record just last year. So... NBA coaching gigs are extremely insecure. There's only one coach in the NBA now who's been in the same spot for more than 20 years, and that's Greg Popovich. Why hasn't he been fired? Because he's been the head of basketball operations since the early '90s (in fact he hired himself for the job!). And, oh yeah, they don't get paid much more, and sometimes less, than a comparably successful Power 5 coach.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by mathguy »

TwoSaints wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:15 am
mathguy wrote: Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:58 pm
Jason94 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:18 pm
I did note that the new coach of the PIstons got a $78.5 million contract. If someone offers CJS a nba job, he is gone and I don't blame him. That is serious FU money.
Honestly, given what the NCAA has become, I don't know why anyone - and I do mean *ANYONE* - would continue to coach in the NCAA if an NBA job offer (even as an assistant) was available. Even without a monster contract like the Pistons were offering, the pay is apt to be competitive for a gig that is relatively cushy and actually allows for an off season.
Two things on this: First, Detroit threw crazy money at Williams because, well, Detroit. Otherwise he'd have gone to a contender. So Monty is now the highest-paid coach in the NBA, earning as much as the two coaches in the finals make combined. A first-time coach like Stack wouldn't have made anywhere near that amount.

Second, a reasonably successful NCAA coach can typically expect to remain in their post for decades if they avoid scandals, controversies, and legal issues. In the NBA, very successful coaches frequently get fired. Milwaukee's head coach, Mike Budenholzer, was fired this year despite having the best record in the league, having won a championship less than two years ago, and having developed a two-time MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo). Toronto's head coach, Nick Nurse, was fired despite having a strong won-loss record and having won a championship in 2019. Doc Rivers was fired despite his obvious winning pedigree (including a championship in 2008), and of course Monty Williams was fired despite having led a 19-win Phoenix Suns team to the 2021 Finals within two years, and then following that up with the league's best record just last year. So... NBA coaching gigs are extremely insecure. There's only one coach in the NBA now who's been in the same spot for more than 20 years, and that's Greg Popovich. Why hasn't he been fired? Because he's been the head of basketball operations since the early '90s (in fact he hired himself for the job!). And, oh yeah, they don't get paid much more, and sometimes less, than a comparably successful Power 5 coach.
So, nothing you said is wrong ... but listen to where I'm coming from.

I mean, obviously the money Detroit threw at Williams was insane, but aside from that a decent NBA head/assistant coach can be expecting comparable money to a decent power 5 head/assistant coach. I mean, there are obviously outliers on both ends of the spectrum, but I don't think I'm wrong in thinking that if we overlaid the NBA and NCAA power 5 salary charts there would be significant overlap. So yeah, you might make a little more in one place or another, but generally you're in the same echelon of lifestyle.

Then look at the jobs. In the NBA you get to work with adults instead of kids. You have a longer season, but you have more actual time off during the off-season. Do you have to recruit? That's gone. Coaches have some input, but that's the GMs job. Negotiating NIL deals? GMs job. Scouting talent at HS games and tourneys? Team probably has a slew of guys to scout the draft. Multiple year contracts means you don't have to re-recruit literally your entire team every year (which is not part of the NCAA job). There's a reason Jay Wright retired young and Brad Stevens has laughed when asked if he would ever go back to the college game. Between recruiting HS kids, working the AAU circuit and coaches, dealing with NIL, AAU coaches that want job offers to deliver recruits, living room sit downs, campus visits, coddling/reassuring teenagers that things are OK, having players that still freak out about finals week, monitoring the transfer portal, worrying about losing guys to the transfer portal ... or the NBA ... or to European leagues ... or to the GLeague ... between all of that, the job of NCAA Head Coach is a really crappy job, that happens to pay well.

As far as job security goes ... yes, there are more "dynastic" coaches in college than the NBA. But at the same time, it's not like those NBA guys are really worried about the unemployment line. Yes, the Bucks, in their fickleness, fired a coach that won a title two years ago and had the best record in the league this year. Do you really thik that Budenholzer won't have a job next year if he wants one? I mean, we kicked this off talking about Monty Williams' big payday that came ... two weeks after the suns fired him? Nick Nurse similarly was fired only to land a better job a couple weeks later. Even guys that aren't very successful as head coaches in the NBA often find new life as prized assistants in the league.

So yeah ... I mean, I know I can be judgmental and hey ... maybe some people really really really like and thrive on the stress and long hours and hectic schedule of a big time NCAA coach. But the NBA gigs seem like comparable pay for a MUCH more manageable job...
Last edited by mathguy on Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Foreverhopeful »

Obvious wrote: Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:17 pm My personal pick for a sleeper next year is Paul Lewis. He hit some very big shots down the stretch last season. I really like his confidence and clutch shot making abilities.
My thoughts exactly.
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Re: Roster Thoughts

Post by Jason94 »

TwoSaints wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:15 am
mathguy wrote: Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:58 pm
Jason94 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:18 pm
I did note that the new coach of the PIstons got a $78.5 million contract. If someone offers CJS a nba job, he is gone and I don't blame him. That is serious FU money.
Honestly, given what the NCAA has become, I don't know why anyone - and I do mean *ANYONE* - would continue to coach in the NCAA if an NBA job offer (even as an assistant) was available. Even without a monster contract like the Pistons were offering, the pay is apt to be competitive for a gig that is relatively cushy and actually allows for an off season.
Two things on this: First, Detroit threw crazy money at Williams because, well, Detroit. Otherwise he'd have gone to a contender. So Monty is now the highest-paid coach in the NBA, earning as much as the two coaches in the finals make combined. A first-time coach like Stack wouldn't have made anywhere near that amount.

Second, a reasonably successful NCAA coach can typically expect to remain in their post for decades if they avoid scandals, controversies, and legal issues. In the NBA, very successful coaches frequently get fired. Milwaukee's head coach, Mike Budenholzer, was fired this year despite having the best record in the league, having won a championship less than two years ago, and having developed a two-time MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo). Toronto's head coach, Nick Nurse, was fired despite having a strong won-loss record and having won a championship in 2019. Doc Rivers was fired despite his obvious winning pedigree (including a championship in 2008), and of course Monty Williams was fired despite having led a 19-win Phoenix Suns team to the 2021 Finals within two years, and then following that up with the league's best record just last year. So... NBA coaching gigs are extremely insecure. There's only one coach in the NBA now who's been in the same spot for more than 20 years, and that's Greg Popovich. Why hasn't he been fired? Because he's been the head of basketball operations since the early '90s (in fact he hired himself for the job!). And, oh yeah, they don't get paid much more, and sometimes less, than a comparably successful Power 5 coach.
I guess, but if you make $7 mil in a year and get fired after two seasons, you can afford to take some time in looking for that next job. Budenholzer made north of 8 mil this past season. He got fired and will be just fine. Especially as Math noted what the NIL and Portal has done from a pressure on recruiting. Now coaches are going to have to be used to turning over 50% of their rosters year over year. And recruiting not only HS, but all of D1 to do so. Outside of stability, a NBA HC job is simply a better job.
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