NC state covid issues

[fldore]

in his post-game press conference monday, elliott avent stated that there was "a bug" going around in the ncsu team and they needed some rest before playing again friday.

Interesting I hadnt heard that. That also seems odd. If they had guys sick since Monday, I wonder how often they were testing players. Was gonna say perhaps they test before each game but presumably if they had guys sick on Monday it would have been caught then. Whether it be the NCAA, the CWS officials, etc.. I'm surprised if we knew the team had an illness going around, that they wouldnt have been testing them immediately. How'd we not find out until an hour before the game friday.

[docdore]

in his post-game press conference monday, elliott avent stated that there was "a bug" going around in the ncsu team and they needed some rest before playing again friday.

Interesting I hadnt heard that. That also seems odd. If they had guys sick since Monday, I wonder how often they were testing players. Was gonna say perhaps they test before each game but presumably if they had guys sick on Monday it would have been caught then. Whether it be the NCAA, the CWS officials, etc.. I'm surprised if we knew the team had an illness going around, that they wouldnt have been testing them immediately. How'd we not find out until an hour before the game friday.

have unsuccessfully tried to copy/paste the pertinent passage from the avent presser transcript which an acquaintance shared in an email this morning. avent said that an assistant coach had been ill for several days and mentioned j.t. jarrett as a player being under the weather.

[fldore]

wow just saw this article. apparently two unvaccinated players tested positive earlier in the week which then had them test the entire team. And 4 vaccinated players who were in the dugout yesterday tested positive. And it was those 4 vaccinated positives that is leading to the forfeit.

https://d1baseball.com/college-world-se ... o-contest/

If our whole team is vaccinated and all their remaining players are vaccinated, then let them play. They're not spreading this to each other.

[KudzuLeague]

If I were commish..if Wolfpack can't play, Vandy play Texas one game to see who gets to finals to face MSU

WIth hindsight this was the best suggestion by far.

[docdore]

it MAY not be true that our entire team is vaccinated.

[Starkiller]

I tend to think that fully vaccinated players should still be eligible to play regardless of testing. It is highly unlikely for a vaccinated person, even if infected, to show symptoms or to be able to spread the virus.

That said, I understand why people are cautious of any positive testing.

[FrmrMrC]

Were any of their players actually sick as in showing symptoms? Or did they just get a couple positive tests? I'm assuming they were doing the rapid covid tests as opposed to the PCRs. The PCRs are dialed up so sensitively that they give too many false positives. But dont think the rapids have the same issue.

The PCR tests are incredibly sensitive and specific, which is what you want in the test. The rapid antigen screen is far less specific and sensitive which actually results in increased false positives (and negatives)

[fldore]

Were any of their players actually sick as in showing symptoms? Or did they just get a couple positive tests? I'm assuming they were doing the rapid covid tests as opposed to the PCRs. The PCRs are dialed up so sensitively that they give too many false positives. But dont think the rapids have the same issue.

The PCR tests are incredibly sensitive and specific, which is what you want in the test. The rapid antigen screen is far less specific and sensitive which actually results in increased false positives (and negatives)

NY Times put out an article last August (maybe Sept) detailing the PCR tests. They are set at cycle thresholds so sensitive that most positive tests are picking up remnants of dead covid cells or active one's so minute you would never get sick and would never spread to others. The analysis the Times had referenced showed that upwards of 90% of positive PCR tests were essentially "false" positives. If you want to search for the article it was titled something along the lines of "You've tested positive for covid but should you have". Even Fauci quietly admitted to this late last year.

I think the concern with the rapid tests it that they'd miss more active cases than the PCR ones. But I doubt you are getting anywhere close to 90% false positives.

[charlestonalum]

I think from a purely public health perspective that the NCAA and member conferences should have had a policy in place that teams that wanted to participate in to NCAA tournament be vaccinated. I realize the pandemic became a political football and that is the sad thing: this should only have been a public health emergency that both political parties rallied against as one nation, one world.It is truly an unfortunate outcome that masks, resting, getting vaccinated all left the public health realm and became a play field for politicians and their supporters. The CWS is another victim of COVID-19.

[FrmrMrC]

Were any of their players actually sick as in showing symptoms? Or did they just get a couple positive tests? I'm assuming they were doing the rapid covid tests as opposed to the PCRs. The PCRs are dialed up so sensitively that they give too many false positives. But dont think the rapids have the same issue.

The PCR tests are incredibly sensitive and specific, which is what you want in the test. The rapid antigen screen is far less specific and sensitive which actually results in increased false positives (and negatives)

NY Times put out an article last August (maybe Sept) detailing the PCR tests. They are set at cycle thresholds so sensitive that most positive tests are picking up remnants of dead covid cells or active one's so minute you would never get sick and would never spread to others. The analysis the Times had referenced showed that upwards of 90% of positive PCR tests were essentially "false" positives. If you want to search for the article it was titled something along the lines of "You've tested positive for covid but should you have". Even Fauci quietly admitted to this late last year.

I think the concern with the rapid tests it that they'd miss more active cases than the PCR ones. But I doubt you are getting anywhere close to 90% false positives.

Here is the article you’re referencing I believe:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... g.amp.html

What they’re arguing is the more times your run a replication cycle, the more likely you are to detect minute fragments of virus. This could include someone who has recovered from the infection and has RNA fragments left over, but could also indicate someone with nascent infection. Context with testing is important, and this problem is why “return to work” policy quickly changed from needing a negative test to duration of symptoms and/or positive test to determine one’s infectivity.

In the following 10 months, it’s entirely possible the CDC and or FDA established some guidelines in regard to replication cycles to create a standard. I don’t know.

But context is everything and in July and August the United States was in the Second Wave. From a public health perspective, is it better to run extra cycles and over quarantine than under? Probably yes.

According to the article cited, some people “probably didn’t need to be quarantined”. However, all of these people had an indication to be tested. Context is important.

We also don’t know if the players have been tested before. What we do know is that players were symptomatic and then had a positive test and then other players in contact with them became positive (again with unknown number of cycles). The appropriate thing for public health is to treat them as possibly infectious and therefore quarantine.

[egbertsouse]

If I were commish..if Wolfpack can't play, Vandy play Texas one game to see who gets to finals to face MSU

WIth hindsight this was the best suggestion by far.

I can only imagine the reaction of Texas fans to this suggestion. For the life of me I can't see the rationale or fairness of this idea.

[katmai]

in his post-game press conference monday, elliott avent stated that there was "a bug" going around in the ncsu team and they needed some rest before playing again friday.

Interesting I hadnt heard that. That also seems odd. If they had guys sick since Monday, I wonder how often they were testing players. Was gonna say perhaps they test before each game but presumably if they had guys sick on Monday it would have been caught then. Whether it be the NCAA, the CWS officials, etc.. I'm surprised if we knew the team had an illness going around, that they wouldnt have been testing them immediately. How'd we not find out until an hour before the game friday.

have unsuccessfully tried to copy/paste the pertinent passage from the avent presser transcript which an acquaintance shared in an email this morning. avent said that an assistant coach had been ill for several days and mentioned j.t. jarrett as a player being under the weather.

I didn't find the original press conference, but here is an article with excerpts from the coach:

The earlier and shorter practice will allow his team to continue its resting up process. A bug has been making its way through the team, with Avent himself feeling a bit under the weather in recent days, although the coach professed to being much better on Wednesday.

“The rest was needed,” Avent confessed.

You handle it very gladly, I’m telling you,” Avent said. “This few days off, not only with our thin bullpen, ... this virus is going around for a little bit, it’s going to be good for the players.”

https://ncstate.rivals.com/news/elliott ... ge-of-rest

In retrospect, it seems pretty obvious that several of NC State's players were symptomatic, but they blew it off as no big deal. My understanding is that non-vaccinated players were being tested twice a week. I would bet that the symptomatic players were not vaccinated. If there are reports of a number of players showing symptoms, and 4 vaccinated, asymptomatic players (of 13 yesterday) have tested positive since yesterday, my guess is that most of the team is positive or will be likely to test positive shortly. I hate it for their team, but that was their choice. It also seems like if they had taken it more seriously when people started showing symptoms, they might have limited the spread among the team.

I hate that many (non-Vanderbilt fans) seem to be blaming Vanderbilt for this situation, but we have done nothing wrong. It is not our fault that NC State had an outbreak, and that they happened to be in our bracket. We can only do what we are asked to do, and if people don't like it, tough.

[fldore]

NY Times put out an article last August (maybe Sept) detailing the PCR tests. They are set at cycle thresholds so sensitive that most positive tests are picking up remnants of dead covid cells or active one's so minute you would never get sick and would never spread to others. The analysis the Times had referenced showed that upwards of 90% of positive PCR tests were essentially "false" positives. If you want to search for the article it was titled something along the lines of "You've tested positive for covid but should you have". Even Fauci quietly admitted to this late last year.

I think the concern with the rapid tests it that they'd miss more active cases than the PCR ones. But I doubt you are getting anywhere close to 90% false positives.

Here is the article you’re referencing I believe:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... g.amp.html

What they’re arguing is the more times your run a replication cycle, the more likely you are to detect minute fragments of virus. This could include someone who has recovered from the infection and has RNA fragments left over, but could also indicate someone with nascent infection. Context with testing is important, and this problem is why “return to work” policy quickly changed from needing a negative test to duration of symptoms and/or positive test to determine one’s infectivity.

In the following 10 months, it’s entirely possible the CDC and or FDA established some guidelines in regard to replication cycles to create a standard. I don’t know.

But context is everything and in July and August the United States was in the Second Wave. From a public health perspective, is it better to run extra cycles and over quarantine than under? Probably yes.

According to the article cited, some people “probably didn’t need to be quarantined”. However, all of these people had an indication to be tested. Context is important.

We also don’t know if the players have been tested before. What we do know is that players were symptomatic and then had a positive test and then other players in contact with them became positive (again with unknown number of cycles). The appropriate thing for public health is to treat them as possibly infectious and therefore quarantine.

I don't really have a problem with the test itself but I do think the results could possibly have led to highly misleading statistics which also led to policy decisions which could have been very different. Probably very valuable to get a sense of how many people have either had it or have been exposed to it. But also equally valuable to know who had active cases worth fretting about. I believe Florida was the first state looking to require the actual cycle number to be a part of the results as opposed to a simple yes or no. Not sure if that was ever instituted but was talked about last november or so.

Not sure if nationwide any changes were made to that. Again Fauci quietly admitted it was overstated late last year. And I believe in January the WHO said the same thing. Not really sure how you would change it. I always assumed it was the lab person or whomever analyzing the test that could adjust the cycles as opposed to it being embedded within the kit itself. But not sure. I actually work for a large healthcare provider and have asked some of our lab folks if they had even heard about this and they had no idea. Seems like very few have.

[VUDU]

To me, it's not just vaccinated/unvaccinated for NC State. It's also the fact that the unvaccinated players apparently took no precautions whatsoever (separating/distancing, etc.). Isn't it the contact tracing that bit them the hardest (made them declare so many people ineligible), not the fact that so many of the players tested positive?

[oakparkDore]

To me, it's not just vaccinated/unvaccinated for NC State. It's also the fact that the unvaccinated players apparently took no precautions whatsoever (separating/distancing, etc.). Isn't it the contact tracing that bit them the hardest (made them declare so many people ineligible), not the fact that so many of the players tested positive?

From having stayed in NC State’s hotel, I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that the players were doing no social distancing whatsoever. No masks, mingling with everyone at the breakfast bar and hotel lobby. But that was true for every team I saw. We ran into some Stanford players with their girlfriends having lunch at that late night taco place Eat the Worm. Saw Texas and Arizona guys wandering Old Market. Saw the Eew Tee players drooling, scratching themselves and about to get on their bus.

No masks, no distancing by anyone anywhere in Omaha.

(Frankly, one of the only teams I didn’t see at all around town was ours, but the Doubletree wasn’t on the way to anything.)

[Starkiller]

Were any of their players actually sick as in showing symptoms? Or did they just get a couple positive tests? I'm assuming they were doing the rapid covid tests as opposed to the PCRs. The PCRs are dialed up so sensitively that they give too many false positives. But dont think the rapids have the same issue.

I also wonder how we got to a situation where they had enough players to play on Friday afternoon but by late Friday evening it was too dangerous for them to continue on. Did a bunch of the guys who played Friday test positive after the game? If it was so dangerous they had to forfeit Saturday, did the NCAA put everyone at risk by having them play Friday?

Will be interesting when more information comes out (assuming it ever does) but this feels like it was handled very peculiarly. Will wait for the facts to come out but since the NCAA seems to mismanage so many things my first inclination is believe they botched this as well. Hard to know if the NC State coach was being 100% truthful but if he was and the NCAA was keeping him in the dark throughout the process, that seems very odd.

in his post-game press conference monday, elliott avent stated that there was "a bug" going around in the ncsu team and they needed some rest before playing again friday.

Looking back at this, it seems to me that this is a failure of the CWS testing protocol. How do you have a coach announce on Monday night that his team has “a bug” going around in the midst of a pandemic and yet the NCAA doesn’t do anything until an hour before game time on Friday afternoon. How were there not multiple tests being performed on that team by the next morning? How did it take so long to figure it out?

Of course, I could also ask how stupid the coach is, too. But he is being paid to not ask these kinds of questions. And it seems like he thinks the whole pandemic is “political” anyway.

[alathIN]

Were any of their players actually sick as in showing symptoms? Or did they just get a couple positive tests? I'm assuming they were doing the rapid covid tests as opposed to the PCRs. The PCRs are dialed up so sensitively that they give too many false positives. But dont think the rapids have the same issue.

The PCR tests are incredibly sensitive and specific, which is what you want in the test. The rapid antigen screen is far less specific and sensitive which actually results in increased false positives (and negatives)

NY Times put out an article last August (maybe Sept) detailing the PCR tests. They are set at cycle thresholds so sensitive that most positive tests are picking up remnants of dead covid cells or active one's so minute you would never get sick and would never spread to others. The analysis the Times had referenced showed that upwards of 90% of positive PCR tests were essentially "false" positives. If you want to search for the article it was titled something along the lines of "You've tested positive for covid but should you have". Even Fauci quietly admitted to this late last year.

I think the concern with the rapid tests it that they'd miss more active cases than the PCR ones. But I doubt you are getting anywhere close to 90% false positives.

I would like to see a link to that article, because either it's totally wrong or you are mangling what it said.
In this meta analysis of PCR tests for covid-19, specificity of the tests ranged 98.9% and up.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2775397

Sensitivity and specificity of tests always vary with the prevalence of the condition in the population being tested. But there is no population in which specificity of covid-19 PCR tests is less than 10%.
Even in the relatively inaccurate point of care antigen tests, specificity has been close to 90%.
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/do ... .pub2/full

[VUDU]

To me, it's not just vaccinated/unvaccinated for NC State. It's also the fact that the unvaccinated players apparently took no precautions whatsoever (separating/distancing, etc.). Isn't it the contact tracing that bit them the hardest (made them declare so many people ineligible), not the fact that so many of the players tested positive?

From having stayed in NC State’s hotel, I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that the players were doing no social distancing whatsoever. No masks, mingling with everyone at the breakfast bar and hotel lobby. But that was true for every team I saw. We ran into some Stanford players with their girlfriends having lunch at that late night taco place Eat the Worm. Saw Texas and Arizona guys wandering Old Market. Saw the Eew Tee players drooling, scratching themselves and about to get on their bus.

No masks, no distancing by anyone anywhere in Omaha.

(Frankly, one of the only teams I didn’t see at all around town was ours, but the Doubletree wasn’t on the way to anything.)

"Everybody's doing it" isn't an excuse (as borne out by the result). I'm pretty sure that Corbin wouldn't have allowed unvaccinated players to mingle. Also, the players who were mingling from those teams may have been vaccinated. Nobody knows how the other teams were handling unvaccinated players. Was NC State doing what all the other teams were doing, but were the only one that got bit? It would be interesting to know.

[oakparkDore]

To me, it's not just vaccinated/unvaccinated for NC State. It's also the fact that the unvaccinated players apparently took no precautions whatsoever (separating/distancing, etc.). Isn't it the contact tracing that bit them the hardest (made them declare so many people ineligible), not the fact that so many of the players tested positive?

From having stayed in NC State’s hotel, I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that the players were doing no social distancing whatsoever. No masks, mingling with everyone at the breakfast bar and hotel lobby. But that was true for every team I saw. We ran into some Stanford players with their girlfriends having lunch at that late night taco place Eat the Worm. Saw Texas and Arizona guys wandering Old Market. Saw the Eew Tee players drooling, scratching themselves and about to get on their bus.

No masks, no distancing by anyone anywhere in Omaha.

(Frankly, one of the only teams I didn’t see at all around town was ours, but the Doubletree wasn’t on the way to anything.)

"Everybody's doing it" isn't an excuse (as borne out by the result). I'm pretty sure that Corbin wouldn't have allowed unvaccinated players to mingle. Also, the players who were mingling from those teams may have been vaccinated. Nobody knows how the other teams were handling unvaccinated players. Was NC State doing what all the other teams were doing, but were the only one that got bit? It would be interesting to know.

Yeah, I obviously can’t speak to whether the NCSU players I saw were the vaccinated ones or not, though I would be surprised if they acted any differently. I can just tell you that, in general, the only people you would see in Omaha wearing masks were on duty servers or store employees. And I saw a whole lot of NCSU players and parents over a couple days and don’t recall a single mask.

Going back tonight and fully expect more of the same, despite Mississippi having the lowest vaccination rate in the nation.