How Many Wins Needed?

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alathIN
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How Many Wins Needed?

Post by alathIN »

Very impressed with the class Lea & Co were able to land their first year, especially in the absence of momentum building on field results.
The next step in building the program will be to generate enough on-field success to keep the momentum building.
This was my concern for the Mason regime - eventually you need some clear success to prove you're moving in the right direction. Otherwise you lose credibility with fans, players, and recruits - and it all starts to fall apart.
Lea has the "advantage" of starting from the bottom of the pit. Six wins next year would look like a huge breakthrough, whereas after the Franklin years six wins for Mason seemed like a low ceiling.

So what would you say is the minimum number of wins in Fall 2022 to demonstrate momentum?
I said above six wins would do it - but that would mean winning all the OOC and two SEC games. Feels like a tall order.
Do you think 5 wins would be enough to build on? Make a case the VU football is on the upswing?


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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by FayetteDore »

Logically, 3 -- one more than this past year.
Realistically, 4 -- to gain any credibility.

As of now, only Elon looks like a sure W. NIU won the MAC this year; we play AT their place. Wake went 11-3 this year; fortunately they're here. Hawaii, a nice trip for players and fans, should give us a quick indication of how the season will go.

I don't see ANY SEC teams where VU will be favored at of now. Mizzou maybe, but the game is there. Even SC seemed to have improved toward the end of the season, with Ws over Auburn and then UNC in their bowl game. Kentucky and Ole Miss are are strong. We'll see how quickly the Gators can turn things around, and whether UT and Heupel are still resurgent after their loss to Purdue.

Haven't checked the entire SEC grid schedule but does any other SEC play 2 of their 4 OOC games away?
Last edited by FayetteDore on Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:07 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by Nashmann »

I see only 4 max....4 is a must. Anything else a bust.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by Lynchsr »

2 conference wins would go a long way in establishing momentum with recruits and HS kids. Some way some how got to get the wins and change the expectations of fans and recruits. S Carolina, Mizzu, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, TN
Last edited by Lynchsr on Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by Minoadoc »

Brutal schedule. Bama and Georgia, both away. Win two OC games, maybe 1-2 from among NIU, Wake and a conference win would be impressive. Most of that would be in the front end of the schedule which would look better for early signing day
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by Johnmn555 »

4, which would probably include 1-7 in the SEC, is a must. 3, which would probably involve increasing the conference losing streak to a ridiculous 29, would be a very bad sign, probably presaging another BDJ era, with had three deuces, followed by improvement to a single 7-6 season, followed by immediate regression to two more deuces.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by vandy05 »

Can we go ahead and not post anymore about how brutal it is to have both Bama and Georgia on the road? Having them at home is no less brutal. Those are losses no matter where the game is played. I'm a bit tongue in cheek, but I've seen it a few times and can't imagine why it would make any earthly difference in what stadium we play the national champion and the runner-up next year.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by nyyankeeDore »

alathIN wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:21 pm Very impressed with the class Lea & Co were able to land their first year, especially in the absence of momentum building on field results.
The next step in building the program will be to generate enough on-field success to keep the momentum building.
This was my concern for the Mason regime - eventually you need some clear success to prove you're moving in the right direction. Otherwise you lose credibility with fans, players, and recruits - and it all starts to fall apart.
Lea has the "advantage" of starting from the bottom of the pit. Six wins next year would look like a huge breakthrough, whereas after the Franklin years six wins for Mason seemed like a low ceiling.

So what would you say is the minimum number of wins in Fall 2022 to demonstrate momentum?
I said above six wins would do it - but that would mean winning all the OOC and two SEC games. Feels like a tall order.
Do you think 5 wins would be enough to build on? Make a case the VU football is on the upswing?
I think 4 wins would be enough to have a better recruiting class next year than the (above VU average) class Coach Lea had in his first year. It would be helpful to avoid blow out losses other than the ones that almost inevitably will happen against Georgia and Alabama.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by baseball1234 »

In what facets of the game will we improve? Not being cynical, serious question.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by buffy »

Pipe dream guys. 3 wins is what we're looking at. We're thin and getting thinner. We'll probably be a better overall everything and that won't translate to wins. We need another two high quality classes like this one to be able to compete.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by DivergentDore »

baseball1234 wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:51 pm In what facets of the game will we improve? Not being cynical, serious question.
Don't know what "will" be improved but there are areas that need improvement or there will be zero progress in year 2.

An offensive identity needs to be established early on. In every game last year it looked like the gameplan as laid out was scrapped after several 3 and outs to start the game.

Can't start every single game down double digits on the scoreboard and have any kind of success. Think of how hard it is is to enter all 12 games with the wrong offensive AND defensive gameplans initially, yet our staff did this with remarkable efficiency. Do commend them for making much better game time adjustments in the second half of the season.

Continue "teaching" even in losing efforts. Saw this from around the midpoint of the season and onwards but in earlier games players were simply thrown under the bus several times for not executing the gameplan.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by dore74 »

We are still on training wheels in my opinion. We may well be underdogs in every game we play this year--unless we show improvement in our early games.
Thus I'm more focused on "how" we play than anything else. We started looking like a football team as the season progressed. Hope we start from that level of good when the season starts and work from there.
And I 100% agree that we need to improve our offense this year. Some life on that side of the ball will make the struggles a good bit easier.
To use an overused expression, the staff has shown they can talk the talk but if they can't walk the walk it will all be for nought.
Here's hoping fellas.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by Go Vandy! »

alathIN wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:21 pm...Do you think 5 wins would be enough to build on? Make a case the VU football is on the upswing?
5 Ws Lea is SEC COY or close.
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by cc11316 »

I am in the camp of 4 wins including an SEC win is kind of the target - it's definitely possible but 2-3 victories with no SEC wins is probably a bit more realistic. Vandy should be better but the other SEC teams in which they can compete with are also getting better (S. Car, Mizzou, Tn).

Path to 4 wins:
@Hawaii - W
ELON. - W
WAKE FOREST - L
@ Northern Ill - W
@Alabama - L
OLE MISS - L
@Georgia. - L
@ Mizzou - L
S. CAROLINA - W
@ Kentucky - L
FLORIDA - L
TENNESSEE - L
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Re: How Many Wins Needed?

Post by dallasdore »

buffy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:10 pm Pipe dream guys. 3 wins is what we're looking at. We're thin and getting thinner. We'll probably be a better overall everything and that won't translate to wins. We need another two high quality classes like this one to be able to compete.
Buffy is right. This program was a bad high school science project when CCL took over. We can show definite improvement in all areas next year and only win 2, which is what i think is max. It was never going to be until year 3 or 4 that we see any uptick in number of wins. Any chance of even sniffing 5 or more wins before year 4 or 5 was going to be a pipe dream unless we'd hired Saban 2.0.
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