Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

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AuricGoldfinger
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Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by AuricGoldfinger »

Expectations are the root of all disappointment.

When it comes to Vanderbilt football (or maybe college football everywhere, for that matter), expectations are everything. There were some parts of the season that met expectations--even as lowly as they may have been--and some parts that did not.

In hindsight, the final two-win record probably should have been a four-, maybe even five-, win season. The non-conference schedule was one of the weakest Vanderbilt has played in a long while. Colorado State and UConn were among the worst FBS teams in the country, and despite beating Oregon, Stanford was the worst it has been in years. ETSU ended up being a good FCS squad, and even though it's happened several times before, no SEC team should ever lose to an FCS program (much less not score a TD on them). And South Carolina was an obvious blown opportunity. Winning that game would have erased a lot of demons.

(All SEC teams except Vanderbilt are bowl eligible this year. Three of them became bowl-eligible only because they beat Vandy.)

The defense largely was about what I expected, especially in first half of the season. The unit was severely limited by the talent on that side of the ball, especially in the secondary. To be blunt, we were slow and lacked athleticism. And it showed up anytime a player got past the front seven. Tackling across the board wasn't good.

But the defense did make some improvements over the course of the season--in September, I was worried QBs like Matt Corral might pass for 600 yards on us by late November. There were a few players who notably got better, and I thought the pass rush at times in the last half of the season was particularly improved. But the defensive backfield is going to need a complete rebuild.

Defensive MVPs: LBs Ethan Barr and Anfernee Orji.

The offense was largely disappointing. I'd thought we'd have to outscore teams in a shootout to have any chance of winning, but it became obvious early in the season that wasn't going to happen. The offense struggled mightily vs. ETSU, setting the tone for the rest of the year. The unit failed to score a TD in four games. Whether because of injury, a sophomore slump, or a new coaching staff, several players didn't contribute even as much as they did in a winless SEC league slate in 2020.

Assuming they are both still on the roster and are healthy, there will be considerable debate about who the starter is at QB. I was undecided about this until late in the season, when I finally concluded the following. In most years Vanderbilt will not have a dominant OL, and therefore needs a mobile QB. I think we can teach Mike Wright to become a decent passer. I know we can't make Ken Seals more mobile.

We've had a succession of non-mobile starting quarterbacks on West End. Kyle Shurmur. Riley Neal. Ken Seals. All recruited by the previous staff. And yes, Shurmur was a damn good QB by the time he was a senior. And I think he made up for being so stiff as a QB by taking care of the ball, having some good weapons, being protected by a pretty decent line, and being very accurate in his last couple of seasons. I'm just not convinced all those things can come together at VU with regularity.

Wright's not a great passer. We all know that. But he adds a dimension that we've lacked at QB for a while, and I think he could become a good passer by the end of his stint at Vandy. That doesn't mean there's not a place for Seals. In fact, he's a good change of pace QB who excels at hurry-up offense. But I don't think the rest of the team excels at up-tempo offense if executed all game as a holistic offensive philosophy. We had very few big plays this season (for a variety of reasons).

In fact, I believe the last two scoring drives in the UT game illustrate the future for Vanderbilt. VU scored on drives of 13 plays/75 yards/7:59 TOP and 20 plays/75 yards/10:55 TOP. It's that kind of ball control offense that has characterized Wake Forest (coached by one of CCL's former bosses) the last several years. The Deacs were #2 in the nation in total number of offensive plays per game this year, #6 last year, and #1 in 2019 and 2018. (I know that's not a perfect measure of offensive tempo. Nor does it mean that Wake can't score in bunches--look at its games versus UNC and Army).

But I mostly just don't think we can be successful without a quarterback who's mobile. That doesn't necessarily mean a running QB. Jay Cutler and Jordan Rodgers were sufficiently mobile without being described as "running" QBs. And Wright still has lots to learn about how to use his mobility, such as learning to roll away from the rush and not into it.

I was really worried about the rushing offense before the season and the lack of depth at RB, but that ended up being a pleasant surprise. Assuming all the pieces return next season and Re'Mahn Davis is healthy, the running game could be a strength next year. The passing offense obviously needs lots of work. It was bland, unimaginative, and predictable.

Two other modest things that would go a long way to fixing the offense. While VU was not among the most penalized squads in the country, we must have been among the leaders in false start penalties. Time after time they killed drives all season. And the red zone offense has to be more productive, although it was better towards the end of the year.

MVP: WR Chris Pierce. As much as the offense struggled this year, no one was more consistent and made more big catches. He was always one of the hardest working players on the field. He was an extremely underrated player and will be missed.

Special teams were a mixed bag. Joseph Bulovas had the big game-winning kicks against Colorado State and UConn, but had a nightmare against Florida going 0-3. Outside of the Gator game, though, he was 14-16 on FGs. He'll be missed. Punter Harrison Smith started the season strong, but really struggled with consistency in the second half of the season. Punt and kickoff returns were basically a non-factor. VU only returned 8 punts all year, and was near the bottom of national statistical rankings in kickoff returns. The team also finished near the bottom in kickoff and punt return defense. There's a lot of work to be done with this part of the team.

MVP: K Joseph Bulovas

That's true, of course, for the entire squad. We have a long way to go. The non-conference schedule ramps up next year, with trips to Hawaii (which finished 6-7) and NIU (which won its division in the MAC), and home games versus potential ACC champion Wake and Elon. In the SEC we trade a home game with Mississippi State for a game at Alabama, although I expect the outcome will be the same. My hope is that we can start to win all of the "winnable" games and be more competitive against the middle of the pack SEC teams. We're still light years from competing with the top echelon, but I'd be content with at least occasionally keeping it interesting rather than playing from behind in the first quarter of every single game (something we did for 11 consecutive games).


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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by VU1970 »

I miss the old days when I could count on reading about how all our troubles came down to play-calling and "schemes." No, actually I don't miss them at all. Long live sober realism.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by TnValleyDore »

Very good analysis Auric, though I would rebut one point. I agree with your assessment that long sustained drives can help us shorten games and be more competitive. However, I don’t agree with the comparison to Wake at all. Wake plays a very up tempo style which is quite effective and fun to watch but does not normally burn a lot of clock. I think they won the TOP last week against BC but that was mainly the result of having the ball most of the 4th quarter after BC’s flu ravaged team had given up. Often, their style results in putting a below average defense back on the field quickly and that has put them in a few shootouts. Wake does run a lot of plays, but that is more the result of playing fast (and effectively) and generating a lot of possessions vs. ball control.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by AuricGoldfinger »

TnValleyDore wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:14 pm Very good analysis Auric, though I would rebut one point. I agree with your assessment that long sustained drives can help us shorten games and be more competitive. However, I don’t agree with the comparison to Wake at all. Wake plays a very up tempo style which is quite effective and fun to watch but does not normally burn a lot of clock. I think they won the TOP last week against BC but that was mainly the result of having the ball most of the 4th quarter after BC’s flu ravaged team had given up. Often, their style results in putting a below average defense back on the field quickly and that has put them in a few shootouts. Wake does run a lot of plays, but that is more the result of playing fast (and effectively) and generating a lot of possessions vs. ball control.
Okay, really good points. I got out on a limb there and pretty much sawed it off.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by Seadog73 »

Great OP and comments from others. Kudos all around.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by Labradore »

Thank you for the accurate, thoughtful post-mortem Auric. Lea must get better. I think he will. But certainly, our team did not play up to its potential this season. We did not beat the teams we should have beaten. Good coaching makes players look better than they are… we need better coaching; hopefully Lea has a plan to get the offense in order. We were consistently underwhelming.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by BrentVU »

Great post, thanks. One reaction: I tend to think special teams overall, rather than being a mixed bag, were a weak spot of the team that badly needs to be shored up. Yes, Vandy had two good kickers, but it seemed like we consistently lost yardage whenever the ball changed hands. Opposing teams often broke big punt and kickoff returns against Vandy, while Vandy was content simply to field the ball cleanly. (It was a big punt return by UT, for instance, that really turned the game in UT's favor.) Far too many kickoffs and punts went out of bounds, costing valuable yardage. On the plus side, Vandy did down a few punts inside the 5, something you almost never saw under Derek Mason; that seemed to be a point of emphasis for Coach Lustig. But Vandy really needs to look toward developing an explosive return game next year, something we haven't seen around here in a long time.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by VandyPhile »

In 2020, the O line starters took the Covid bye. We managed to have a decent offense using what had been 2nd and 3rd team linemen. The offense was the bright spot in a dismal year.
In 2021, the bye players returned, along with the ones who got experience in their absence. And yet the line was significantly worse.
This one thing was very significant to how poorly the season went. And contrary to expectations.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by BrentVU »

VandyPhile wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:01 pm In 2020, the O line starters took the Covid bye. We managed to have a decent offense using what had been 2nd and 3rd team linemen. The offense was the bright spot in a dismal year.
In 2021, the bye players returned, along with the ones who got experience in their absence. And yet the line was significantly worse.
This one thing was very significant to how poorly the season went. And contrary to expectations.
Well, that's the narrative, but you forget one thing... Drew Birchmeier came over in 2020 to play O-line, and Connor Mignone was a godsend whom Rossomando brought with him from Connecticut. Those two, who played next to each other on one side most of the year, turned out to be a pair of really good linemen... I would go so far as to say, better than anyone we put up there this season.
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Re: Random ruminations on the season that was (long)

Post by VUgearhead »

I would say our greatest weakness on offense this year, was the passing game. Of the games I watched, there was plenty of criticism to go around. The pass call selection was at best 'un-imaginative'. It feels like there were only a half dozen basic routes that they used the whole year, and few, if any screens or passes to the TE. Our receiving corps was a disappointment as well. There were way too many dropped passes and a general inability to get any separation on the defense. Ken Seals tended to hold the ball for too long, and Wright just wasn't accurate enough. The OL did improve on pass defense towards the end of the season (as well as run blocking), not counting the false starts, but were downright abysmal in September and early October.
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