Realistic Expectations

For discussion regarding the Vanderbilt Commodores' football program.

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VandyManners
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Realistic Expectations

Post by VandyManners »

As a life long Vanderbilt fan, I am often asked by friends, what are my realistic expectations for Vanderbilt Football. Before Jimmy Frank, I had no expectations except being the perennial doormat of the SEC and impatiently waiting for Basketball or Baseball season to begin. Now, 7 years removed from back to back 9 win seasons and 3 straight bowl games, I have to ask myself "what are my expectations?"

I think that I am a reasonable person who realistically evaluates each season as it unfolds. I do not think Vandy will ever compete for an SEC title or National championship. Winning the East is not obtainable based on history and lack of university commitment. I think being competitive and going to a bowl game every year is obtainable. I believe Vandy could be a top 25 team some seasons. Top 10, probably not.

These are just one fans expectations, what are yours? I have always been curious how other Vandy fans see the football program and what their expectations are. Looking forward to seeing where you all are.


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dcdore
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by dcdore »

I think of VU football as a bell curve, hopefully with the mean moving forward.
I see the program right now as a 3.5 win program; with luck maybe 4-5 wins; with bad luck, 1-3.
Next step is to move the mean to 4.0, 4.5, 5.0 etc.
Over a 3-5 year period from now, my hope is to reach a mean of 5. With some breaks, a 7 win season, but bad breaks might still produce a 3-4 win season.
Longer term HOPES are for the mean to move to 6-7 allowing for the occasional 9 win season but also producing regular bowl appearances.
Always hopeful; rarely optimistic. @GAD
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by Commodoredave »

I doubt Franklin could have sustained what he did in his second and third year, but it is really sad to see our expectations are back to earth. The reality is that it feels like the best we can hope to sustain is a 6 win average over a decade, and that would be the best in forever.
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by FayetteDore »

I agree with the first two posters, whose expectations I might summarize as: competitive.

There's much talk about CCL's first season and his perhaps unfortunate remark about "a 10-year plan," widely misinterpreted to mean it will take 10 years to get the 'Dores competitive -- compared to CJF's fairly immediate success.

But we need look no further than neighboring Kentucky to see the value in giving a coach time to build a program. Mark Stoops' first season at UK was CJF's last season at Vanderbilt, 2013. Following Joker Phillips' last season at 2-10 (which resulted in his firing), Stoops' Team One Wildcats also went 2-10. The Cats went 5-7 each of the next two seasons, 2014 and 2015. They finally turned the corner in Stoops' fourth season, finishing 7-6 after losing their bowl game to Ga. Tech -- a record repeated in 2017 after losing the MCB to Northwestern. Stoops' true breakout year was 2018, his 6th season, when they went 10-3 and beat CJF's Penn State in the bowl game.

Prior to Stoops and CJF arrival, Kentucky and Vanderbilt usually battled it out to avoid the bottom of the SEC East. And our games with each other were usually toss-ups. Since 2015, UK has finished no lower than 4th in the East and has tied for 2nd twice, and this year finishes as 2nd outright. And they've beaten VU six straight, their longest win streak in the history of the series (pushing their overall record against the 'Dores to 48-42-4).

In the current and future SEC environment (NIL, two powerhouses coming and likely 9-game conference schedules), success will be even more difficult. We can hope for, and expect, incremental improvement. Even our OOC games next year are challenging, all at the start of the season -- @Hawaii (6-7), Elon (6-5), Wake Forest (10-2), @Northern Illinois (8-4). If we win 3 of those 4, it will already be an improvement. The SEC schedule is especially difficult. South Carolina and Florida, both in Nashville, seem like the only possibilities at this point, with emphasis on possible.
Last edited by FayetteDore on Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by dore74 »

The Mason years I think demonstrated that 6 win seasons are not out of the question even in the short term. With the portal now being wide open and, in my opinion at least, a big time upgrade in the coaching staff I'm hopeful we'll get to the 6 win mid-point in a couple of years (or maybe even next year).

Agree we will never, ever compete with the professional college teams in our league. But I am hopeful (delusional?) that we'll see a 9 win season in a shorter period of time than many of our more pessimistic (realistic?) fans may think.
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by jpmando »

Sorry, Franklin's accomplishments were real. No reason to undermine them, or doubt he could have continued
the success. He did what no other coach was able to do since the 1950s.

I'm afraid we "settled" with poor coaching and poor performances with Mason. In fact, he was rewarded for mediocrity. It appears we are settling again with our low expectations now and for the future. And if our head coach can't make the needed staff changes,
I have to assume that he is settling too. The "rage" business is unconvincing.

Anyone recall Tulane's 11-0 record a few years ago? One may criticize their opponents, but I doubt any were any less regarded than ETSU this year.

I refuse to believe Vanderbilt cannot build a solid program of which we can be proud, and have a real chance to win in every game. I want to see real signs of demand for excellence-and nothing less. And stadium renderings mean nothing at this point.

Show me with success.
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by geeznotagain »

A man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?
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I think both of ours are too damn low.
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Re: Realistic Expectations

Post by Lynchsr »

For the 2022 season here are my realistic expectations:

The offense to average more than 18ppg for the entire season. We better run the score up against Elon and Hawaii as I don’t expect us to score much on Georgia or Alabama.

Defense: I expect similar number of TO as this year (avg 1* / game). A defense that lines up correctly and is in position and makes the offense convert 3rd downs to sustain drives.

Special teams: consistently make fg inside 40yrds. No punts less than 25 yards, at least 2 punt returns a game. The fair catch or no catch and let it bounce and roll has got to stop. I am ok with a fake fg or punt once in awhile and had no problem with the one fake we ran this year.

IF the above happens the wins and loses will take care of themself. AND it won’t be crazy for a four star recruit to want to play at Vandy when we are scoring points and playing assignment football. Then the cycle gets more feasible each year.
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