Playoff Expansion

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Playoff Expansion

Post by MikenNashville »

This week there has been some smoke about expanding to 12 teams. I personally think its too many, IMO it should be 6 with power 5 champs and 1 at-large or at most 8 with the power 5 champs, 3 at-large with one being the best from the group of 5 if there is one in the top 10. Under the 12 format you could potentially have the winning team play 17 games (18 if Hawaii is on the schedule). So would you have to go back to 100 scholarships to keep up with injuries? I would imagine a lot more draft eligible players would opt out of the other bowl games as well. Also, watching Alabama crush a 3 loss team that might have lucked into the second round sounds pretty boring to me.


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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by Golddore68 »

There’ll be a lot of blowouts in the first round until you get to the final four.

Then you also run the risk of injury. Let’s say Alabama, seeded No. 1, has to play an extra game against the 8th seeded team like Cincinnati. Bama would crush Cincinnati 56-3 or something like that, but in the process of the game Bama’s starting wide receiver and quarterback are injured. Now they have to go into the final four without two of their best players, in a game that was meaningless.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by VUinFL »

It might also cheapen the regular season...currently, one loss almost disqualifies you from the playoff and two losses certainly does. With more spots, losses would have less of an impact and might make the games a bit less weighty. Sometimes the best games are the late in the season rivalry games with one team shooting for an undefeated season and their rival just playing to screw up their season.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by alathIN »

1. It's going to happen because the networks will pay for it. If the money is there, it can't not happen.

2. I'm not excited to see another couple rounds of "who gets stomped by Alabama this time?"

3. The added on teams will have no chance of winning the whole shebang, but it could boost a program just to be able to say they made the playoffs... for the honor of getting stomped by Bama.

4. From the fan standpoint, I'm not excited to have a playoff at all. Without a playoff, yes, some years we were left with arguments about who should have been #1. But what is the purpose of sports other than to provide fodder for fan arguments?
Before the playoff, there were what, 30ish bowl games? That meant 60 teams could say they made it to postseason play and 30 ended their seasons on a win. Now the non-playoff postseason games are irrelevant. "We won the O-Ring Bowl Brought to You by Acme Gaskets and Seals! I was there in Otumwa to see it!" The playoffs have taken all the glory from the bowls.

5. The extra games, with prospects of injuries and more interference with school work are making an already highly dubious student-athlete myth into something so farcical it can no longer be said with a straight face. This is not good for the players. It's not good for the competitiveness of college football as a whole.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by coachinwaiting »

I've only seen headlines referring to the 12-game playoff, but I haven't a clue what the proposed format is. I really don't care at this point, if it happens I'll worry about it then. As far as the number is concerned, it is beyond overkill and will only serve to create in college football what Pete Rozell envisioned for the NFL years ago. A league where there was no dominant team and every game was a toss-up. That's a little extreme, but throwing more opportunities for upsets in mindless games is the path to just that scenario.

Imagine a season where Ohio State and Michigan run the table up until their end-of-regular-season tilt, and one of course wins, but the other is assured a spot in the 12-team playoff. Sounds great so far, but the anticipation of a potential rematch in a late round of the playoff would make the first round against Boise State or Coastal Carolina a little hard to get up for. The fans who would tune out when the upset gives us Michigan vs. Coastal or OSU vs. Boise State could make the TV providers have second thoughts. Heaven forbid both super powers fall and we have a Coastal vs. Boise dud. I know it might be someone's cup of tea, but not nearly as many as the other matchups would bring.

The networks and PTB in the NCAA don't want to kill their ratings by getting stars injured or having mid-level teams play for the biggest prize of all, but they are putting a lot at risk with the extended playoff. It ain't broke, people. Quit trying to fix it.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by vandy05 »

I have mixed emotions about it. In most years you really only have a somewhere between 4 to 6 teams who are legitimately a "best team in the country" type of team. But recent years (the last 7 or 8) have really been a coronation of sorts between Clemson and Alabama. There isn't nearly as much intrigue and parity as there used to be.

But I also think that past parity was probably just a perception. As the #1 team in the country you don't get to go play the #8 team just because of a conference bowl tie-in, beat them and get to claim the title. You have to beat the #2 team which in most years is a much stiffer test.

Four doesn't feel too off to me honestly. I could get behind 6 or 8.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by coachinwaiting »

vandy05 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:20 pm I have mixed emotions about it. In most years you really only have a somewhere between 4 to 6 teams who are legitimately a "best team in the country" type of team. But recent years (the last 7 or 8) have really been a coronation of sorts between Clemson and Alabama. There isn't nearly as much intrigue and parity as there used to be.

But I also think that past parity was probably just a perception. As the #1 team in the country you don't get to go play the #8 team just because of a conference bowl tie-in, beat them and get to claim the title. You have to beat the #2 team which in most years is a much stiffer test.

Four doesn't feel too off to me honestly. I could get behind 6 or 8.
I could see 6, and then only to give a bye to the #1 and #2 seeds as a reward while the #3 through #6 teams battle to earn the semifinal round. It only extends the season a week, and it opens the competition up enough.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by MikenNashville »

There is no reason to expand it to 12 other than $$$$. I can see arguments for 6 but 12 is a complete cash grab, at that point as someone previously said might as well drop the word student from student athlete, also just go ahead and pay them directly and call the power 5 the NFL taxi squad.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by MikenNashville »

Another thing, college football ratings reached a plateau about ten years ago. Using gimmicks etc. is not going to work - see Nascar.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by coachinwaiting »

MikenNashville wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:12 pm Another thing, college football ratings reached a plateau about ten years ago. Using gimmicks etc. is not going to work - see Nascar.
Wokeness hasn't helped NASCAR, nor will it college football.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by mathguy »

I have ... extremely ... mixed feelings. Not least of which the fact that the proposal *still* doesn't guarantee a good group of 5 team a slot.

I was OK with the BCS title game. I think they bungled it a bit with the computer generated rankings, but I was OK with a 1 vs 2 game ... even if there is sometimes a third team that feels left out.

Then we got the year of the Alabama/LSU rematch. Which frankly, was a joke. You have ONE SHOT to declare the best team in the nation ... and you picked two teams that had already played each other? Stupid.

So I was mostly OK with going to 4. Only over the years it has become clear that there is literally nothing a group of 5 team can do to get in the playoffs. Go undefeated? Not nearly good enough. Go undefeated, beat a power conference team in a premier bowl game, and then go undefeated AGAIN the next season just for good measure? No dice. Shoot, last year we had Louisiana go 9-1 (with a loss to a top 15 team and and a win over top 15 Big 12 team ... and get passed over for a BCS bowl by that same 3 loss Big 12 team), Coastal Carolina go 11-0 with a victory over a top 10 team and not be able to sniff a New Year's bowl, and Cincinnati go 9-0 with wins over 3 ranked teams and reach #6 in the polls and again, forget the playoffs, couldn't even sneak into a major bowl!

Have we learned nothing from Boise State vs Oklahoma?

Here's where I sit. Go to 6 teams. Ideally this will be one team from each power conference and one group of 5 team, but I'm OK with no guarantees (the group of 5 doesn't have a stud team every year). Further, the conference title games ARE CONSIDERED PLAYOFF GAMES AND ARE HENCE ELIMINATION GAMES. It is conceivable that Alabama & LSU both deserve slots in the playoff, and shouldn't have an October game in someone's home stadium determine who gets it. If Alabama and Georgia are both playoff teams, and GA loses the SEC title game to Alabama? Well, they had their playoff shot. Had they won, they would have "advanced" and Alabama would have been left home. Too bad. So sad. (Except not really)
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by alathIN »

coachinwaiting wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:29 pm
vandy05 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:20 pm I have mixed emotions about it. In most years you really only have a somewhere between 4 to 6 teams who are legitimately a "best team in the country" type of team. But recent years (the last 7 or 8) have really been a coronation of sorts between Clemson and Alabama. There isn't nearly as much intrigue and parity as there used to be.

But I also think that past parity was probably just a perception. As the #1 team in the country you don't get to go play the #8 team just because of a conference bowl tie-in, beat them and get to claim the title. You have to beat the #2 team which in most years is a much stiffer test.

Four doesn't feel too off to me honestly. I could get behind 6 or 8.
I could see 6, and then only to give a bye to the #1 and #2 seeds as a reward while the #3 through #6 teams battle to earn the semifinal round. It only extends the season a week, and it opens the competition up enough.
6 games generate half the content that 12 games do. If ESPN et al believe they can sell ads for a 12 game playoff, then a 12 game playoff will happen. They're not going to leave 50% of their potential revenue sitting on the table.
This is as good as done.
It's like someone dropping a brick. You know the brick is going to hit the ground because the laws of the universe will not be denied. The brick is not going to wind up hovering halfway down to the ground. Similarly they are not going to remain hovering at 6 games when they can get 12.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by alathIN »

coachinwaiting wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:35 pm
MikenNashville wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:12 pm Another thing, college football ratings reached a plateau about ten years ago. Using gimmicks etc. is not going to work - see Nascar.
Wokeness hasn't helped NASCAR, nor will it college football.
The great unanswered question of our generation is whether wokeness, or people who can't finish two sentences without complaining about wokeness, are more annoying.
Right now it's neck and neck, and both sides are putting out Hall of Fame levels of annoyance.
It's like watching Magic v Bird. We are witnessing history before our eyes.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by Versus75 »

I agree with Mathguy who stated: "... title games ARE CONSIDERED PLAYOFF GAMES AND ARE HENCE ELIMINATION GAMES."

During my time as sports editor / columnist at Versus, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament expanded to allow a second team from a conference enter the tournament. I argued in a column that if the goal was to find the best team in the nation, logic dictates that any team considered for the national championship must be at least the best team in its conference.

As we see nearly 50 years later, that was not the goal. The goal was to make more money for the NCAA and its member institutions.


I also agree with MikenNashville, Golddore68 and alathIN that more games could lead to more injuries. It's not just an additional 1/12 of the regular season injury possibility because each extra game adds to the season-long toll of playing the game and the chance of injury goes up.

But we already know that the university administrators are not concerned with that or they never would have allowed overtime in college football games. A player risks injuries in any game, but how great does the likelihood of injury increase when he endures two, three, four or more overtimes in the same game?

Tie games are not the same as Wins and winning is critical to generating crowds and television revenue, so the games go deep into the night.


These people care more about the dollars than they do for the welfare of the student-athletes.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by coachinwaiting »

alathIN wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:22 pm
coachinwaiting wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:35 pm
MikenNashville wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:12 pm Another thing, college football ratings reached a plateau about ten years ago. Using gimmicks etc. is not going to work - see Nascar.
Wokeness hasn't helped NASCAR, nor will it college football.
The great unanswered question of our generation is whether wokeness, or people who can't finish two sentences without complaining about wokeness, are more annoying.
Right now it's neck and neck, and both sides are putting out Hall of Fame levels of annoyance.
It's like watching Magic v Bird. We are witnessing history before our eyes.
Meanwhile, lapping the field, people who ignore the obvious.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by coachinwaiting »

mathguy wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:08 pm I have ... extremely ... mixed feelings. Not least of which the fact that the proposal *still* doesn't guarantee a good group of 5 team a slot.

I was OK with the BCS title game. I think they bungled it a bit with the computer generated rankings, but I was OK with a 1 vs 2 game ... even if there is sometimes a third team that feels left out.

Then we got the year of the Alabama/LSU rematch. Which frankly, was a joke. You have ONE SHOT to declare the best team in the nation ... and you picked two teams that had already played each other? Stupid.

So I was mostly OK with going to 4. Only over the years it has become clear that there is literally nothing a group of 5 team can do to get in the playoffs. Go undefeated? Not nearly good enough. Go undefeated, beat a power conference team in a premier bowl game, and then go undefeated AGAIN the next season just for good measure? No dice. Shoot, last year we had Louisiana go 9-1 (with a loss to a top 15 team and and a win over top 15 Big 12 team ... and get passed over for a BCS bowl by that same 3 loss Big 12 team), Coastal Carolina go 11-0 with a victory over a top 10 team and not be able to sniff a New Year's bowl, and Cincinnati go 9-0 with wins over 3 ranked teams and reach #6 in the polls and again, forget the playoffs, couldn't even sneak into a major bowl!

Have we learned nothing from Boise State vs Oklahoma?

Here's where I sit. Go to 6 teams. Ideally this will be one team from each power conference and one group of 5 team, but I'm OK with no guarantees (the group of 5 doesn't have a stud team every year). Further, the conference title games ARE CONSIDERED PLAYOFF GAMES AND ARE HENCE ELIMINATION GAMES. It is conceivable that Alabama & LSU both deserve slots in the playoff, and shouldn't have an October game in someone's home stadium determine who gets it. If Alabama and Georgia are both playoff teams, and GA loses the SEC title game to Alabama? Well, they had their playoff shot. Had they won, they would have "advanced" and Alabama would have been left home. Too bad. So sad. (Except not really)
What is the fascination with Group of 5? I don't know why they should be guaranteed a spot in any playoff scenario. Going undefeated is great, and if one of the wins is vs a Power 5 team, even better, but should that vault a Group of 5 team over a team that beat 11 of 12 Power 5 teams? As long as we are guaranteeing a spot to a particular class of schools, why not give one to the best school that emphasizes academics more than others? Maybe one of Vanderbilt's recent 9-win teams would have made the playoff. By the same token, why should a 3-loss Power 5 conference championship game winner be guaranteed a spot that might go to an exceptional Group of 5 team?
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by Doreknox »

I can think of several times that 5 or 6 teams may have had legitimate cases for being in the championship games, but when has their ever been 8 or 12 teams in the discussion?

These teams were ranked 5-12 in 2020 and would have been in the expanded playoffs:

5. Notre Dame (4)
6. Texas A&M (5)
7. Florida (7)
8. Cincinnati (8, American Champion, auto)
9. Georgia (9)
10. Iowa State (10)
11. Indiana (11)
12. Coastal Carolina (12, SunBelt Champion, auto)
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by Johnmn555 »

Judging by ND's performance as the #4 seed last year, we hardly need more teams in a playoff.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by mathguy »

coachinwaiting wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:06 am
mathguy wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:08 pm
So I was mostly OK with going to 4. Only over the years it has become clear that there is literally nothing a group of 5 team can do to get in the playoffs. Go undefeated? Not nearly good enough. Go undefeated, beat a power conference team in a premier bowl game, and then go undefeated AGAIN the next season just for good measure? No dice. Shoot, last year we had Louisiana go 9-1 (with a loss to a top 15 team and and a win over top 15 Big 12 team ... and get passed over for a BCS bowl by that same 3 loss Big 12 team), Coastal Carolina go 11-0 with a victory over a top 10 team and not be able to sniff a New Year's bowl, and Cincinnati go 9-0 with wins over 3 ranked teams and reach #6 in the polls and again, forget the playoffs, couldn't even sneak into a major bowl!

Have we learned nothing from Boise State vs Oklahoma?

Here's where I sit. Go to 6 teams. Ideally this will be one team from each power conference and one group of 5 team, but I'm OK with no guarantees (the group of 5 doesn't have a stud team every year). Further, the conference title games ARE CONSIDERED PLAYOFF GAMES AND ARE HENCE ELIMINATION GAMES. It is conceivable that Alabama & LSU both deserve slots in the playoff, and shouldn't have an October game in someone's home stadium determine who gets it. If Alabama and Georgia are both playoff teams, and GA loses the SEC title game to Alabama? Well, they had their playoff shot. Had they won, they would have "advanced" and Alabama would have been left home. Too bad. So sad. (Except not really)
What is the fascination with Group of 5? I don't know why they should be guaranteed a spot in any playoff scenario. Going undefeated is great, and if one of the wins is vs a Power 5 team, even better, but should that vault a Group of 5 team over a team that beat 11 of 12 Power 5 teams? As long as we are guaranteeing a spot to a particular class of schools, why not give one to the best school that emphasizes academics more than others? Maybe one of Vanderbilt's recent 9-win teams would have made the playoff. By the same token, why should a 3-loss Power 5 conference championship game winner be guaranteed a spot that might go to an exceptional Group of 5 team?
OK. First of all, No one is beating 11 of 12 power 5 teams ... Alabama is going 7-1 against the SEC, and then beating up on 3 cupcakes and 1 mid-tier power 5 team.

Second of all, while this applies a little less so in the SEC, who is to say how good those group of 5 conferences are? Vanderbilt wouldn't be winning them, I'll tell you that much.

Third, should an undefeated Gof5 team be slotted ahead of an 11-1 Power5 team? *PROBABLY* not. But "probably not" and "no" are different things. Boise State certainly once proved they deserved it. In more recent years, Central Florida has a season where they went undefeated, with 2 top 25 wins, and couldn't even crack the top 10 of the CFP rankings. Then, they beat an Auburn team that played in the SEC Championship game in their bowl, came back the next season and went 12-0 with 11 blowout wins. There is every reason to believe this team was worthy of a Playoff appearance compared to 1-loss Oklahoma.

Does that happen every year? No. But it demonstrates that Gof5 live in a different reality - there is LITERALLY NOTHING they can do to make the playoffs under the 4 teams playoff system. No matter how good they may be, there is literally nothing they can do to play for a national title.

And that's the key thing. If a Group of 5 team actually *IS* the best team in the nation, I want them to win a national title. For as long as the Group of 5 has existed with that name, that hasn't been possible.

Because the NCAA bandies about the term "strength of schedule" as if that is something these teams can change.
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Re: Playoff Expansion

Post by alathIN »

mathguy wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:28 pm If a Group of 5 team actually *IS* the best team in the nation, I want them to win a national title.
Correction:
"If a Group of 5 team actually *IS* the 3rd or 4th best team in the nation, I want them to have the honor of being stomped by Alabama."1

This is to me the big problem with the playoff. There is only one team that is consistently capable of winning it, and a handful of others that might be semiplausible underdogs if they're having an "up" year.
There are small handful of elite programs that are vastly better than everyone else - and one program that is vastly better than those elites.
No matter how many teams or how it's structured, this is not a playoff. It's a coronation.

1: Once every 11 years, there is a remote probability barely distinguishable from zero that Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, or Georgia may be substituted for Alabama in this sentence.
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