What is the ceiling now

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Dickeys Nightmare
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Dickeys Nightmare »

Obvious wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:53 pm
Dickeys Nightmare wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:33 pm
dallasdore wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:40 pm The ceiling is basically the same as it has been (sans after the Arky game when we were thinking it could be a shade higher). We should have 2-3 more conference wins. The floor would be just 1, and I'd be shocked and faint if we hit 4. Half of our remaining 8 games we have no shot in, and could get blown out in any of them.

To those thinking we have ANY shot at beating UT, pass me a glass of that koolaid! 8-)
We could easily beat them. They’re not UCLA under John Wooden. You probably thought we would lose to Kentucky and Florida in football. Sports doesn’t work like that. The games have to be played. Upsets happen. We definitely have a shot. I always expect to win until we don’t. And I expect the players do also.
When is the last time that we beat UT? This coaching staff hasn’t done so I don’t think. I expect Vandy’s best effort of the season. Losing to the vols sucks.
When was the last time we beat Florida in football? Had been a while. It’s a great opportunity.


Dickeys Nightmare
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Dickeys Nightmare »

NM
Last edited by Dickeys Nightmare on Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by UltimateVUFan »

Expect another FTA discrepancy akin to the 36-11 deficit at A&M. Even though the game is in Memorial. Because screw $EC refs and their bia$.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by volemtine »

Obvious wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:45 pm I think this is largely dependent on Wednesdays game. IF they pull off an all time upset, they will have all the confidence in the world going down the home stretch.
Agreed…all it takes is a win or 2 against ranked teams and it changes the dynamics. Get to .500 and win two games in the conference tournament and we make it to the big dance.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by MrMemorial »

volemtine wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:24 pm
Obvious wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:45 pm I think this is largely dependent on Wednesdays game. IF they pull off an all time upset, they will have all the confidence in the world going down the home stretch.
Agreed…all it takes is a win or 2 against ranked teams and it changes the dynamics. Get to .500 and win two games in the conference tournament and we make it to the big dance.
What are you smoking and do you have any extra to sell?

That MIGHT get us on the bubble for the N I T. Maybe.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by dallasdore »

MrMemorial wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:46 pm
volemtine wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:24 pm
Obvious wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:45 pm I think this is largely dependent on Wednesdays game. IF they pull off an all time upset, they will have all the confidence in the world going down the home stretch.
Agreed…all it takes is a win or 2 against ranked teams and it changes the dynamics. Get to .500 and win two games in the conference tournament and we make it to the big dance.
What are you smoking and do you have any extra to sell?

That MIGHT get us on the bubble for the N I T. Maybe.
Agree with Memorial here, that only gets us to the stratosphere of the big dance, but no hope of getting in, unless the selection committee becomes miraculously comprised of members of vandymania.

Although with the new NIT rules, I think it would get us into the NIT. Less than that did the trick last year.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Jason94 »

dallasdore wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:21 am
MrMemorial wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:46 pm
volemtine wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:24 pm

Agreed…all it takes is a win or 2 against ranked teams and it changes the dynamics. Get to .500 and win two games in the conference tournament and we make it to the big dance.
What are you smoking and do you have any extra to sell?

That MIGHT get us on the bubble for the N I T. Maybe.
Agree with Memorial here, that only gets us to the stratosphere of the big dance, but no hope of getting in, unless the selection committee becomes miraculously comprised of members of vandymania.

Although with the new NIT rules, I think it would get us into the NIT. Less than that did the trick last year.
Any likely path to the dance would have to include a win against UT I would think. After that we have a lot of games against good teams but none that are great like Bama or UT. Auburn is the only team that is close to being ranked outside of those two, though UK could get there (but is one of the less likely wins due to it being on the road).

We would have to beat UT, USC, Auburn, LSU, UF at home, and MSU as a minimum to get us to 10-8 in league and 17-14 overall. Then we would need to win at least 1 game in the SEC-T, but more likely get to Saturday to be considered. USC is the only game where we would be favored, but we would have at least a 1 in 3 shot against UF at home, at LSU, MSU, and Auburn at home. This seems rather unlikely, but if Wright is healthy we have enough talent to do it.

Getting to 9-9 does not get it done without a Sunday run that includes beating UT or Bama in addition to beating UT. And even then it would not be a lock. This is where losing to Southern Miss and Grambling St. really come back to haunt us. It really doesn't matter how well they are doing in their leagues, we shouldn't have lost to them at home, and if we hadn't, then our record would be 13-10 right now and getting to 9-9 would mean a finish at 18-13 with two wins in the SEC-T getting us to 20 and putting us squarely on the bubble even without a win against UT or Bama.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by VUgearhead »

Jason94 wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:55 am
...

Any likely path to the dance would have to include a win against UT I would think. After that we have a lot of games against good teams but none that are great like Bama or UT. Auburn is the only team that is close to being ranked outside of those two, though UK could get there (but is one of the less likely wins due to it being on the road).

We would have to beat UT, USC, Auburn, LSU, UF at home, and MSU as a minimum to get us to 10-8 in league and 17-14 overall. Then we would need to win at least 1 game in the SEC-T, but more likely get to Saturday to be considered. USC is the only game where we would be favored, but we would have at least a 1 in 3 shot against UF at home, at LSU, MSU, and Auburn at home. This seems rather unlikely, but if Wright is healthy we have enough talent to do it.

Getting to 9-9 does not get it done without a Sunday run that includes beating UT or Bama in addition to beating UT. And even then it would not be a lock. This is where losing to Southern Miss and Grambling St. really come back to haunt us. It really doesn't matter how well they are doing in their leagues, we shouldn't have lost to them at home, and if we hadn't, then our record would be 13-10 right now and getting to 9-9 would mean a finish at 18-13 with two wins in the SEC-T getting us to 20 and putting us squarely on the bubble even without a win against UT or Bama.
I guess CJS wasn't thinking that far ahead back in NOV/DEC to see how those missed opportunities would haunt us.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Jason94 »

VUgearhead wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:33 am
Jason94 wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 9:55 am
...

Any likely path to the dance would have to include a win against UT I would think. After that we have a lot of games against good teams but none that are great like Bama or UT. Auburn is the only team that is close to being ranked outside of those two, though UK could get there (but is one of the less likely wins due to it being on the road).

We would have to beat UT, USC, Auburn, LSU, UF at home, and MSU as a minimum to get us to 10-8 in league and 17-14 overall. Then we would need to win at least 1 game in the SEC-T, but more likely get to Saturday to be considered. USC is the only game where we would be favored, but we would have at least a 1 in 3 shot against UF at home, at LSU, MSU, and Auburn at home. This seems rather unlikely, but if Wright is healthy we have enough talent to do it.

Getting to 9-9 does not get it done without a Sunday run that includes beating UT or Bama in addition to beating UT. And even then it would not be a lock. This is where losing to Southern Miss and Grambling St. really come back to haunt us. It really doesn't matter how well they are doing in their leagues, we shouldn't have lost to them at home, and if we hadn't, then our record would be 13-10 right now and getting to 9-9 would mean a finish at 18-13 with two wins in the SEC-T getting us to 20 and putting us squarely on the bubble even without a win against UT or Bama.
I guess CJS wasn't thinking that far ahead back in NOV/DEC to see how those missed opportunities would haunt us.
Perhaps it is a byproduct of not have grown up coaching college ball. Any college coach/assistant coach knows/should know (even fans know) that the committee looks at the body of work, not just the conference games, and that they have gone away from "last 10", trying to place equal emphasis on games played early on as a way of encouraging teams to play challenging non-conference games and go on the road to play them.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Versus75 »

Yet, I hear folks on UK call-in shows suggesting: "Maybe the committee won't count the home loss to South Carolina against us because Toppin wasn't playing and Wallace was injured midway through the first half."

Surely, we have an adequate excuse for some of our losses.

I would hope the committee ignores all that and just looks at which teams you beat and where the game was played. I suppose the NET Rating is going to be considered.

Any other factors should not involve: "This team is better (or worse) than its record because of ...."
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by commadore »

volemtine wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:24 pm
Obvious wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:45 pm I think this is largely dependent on Wednesdays game. IF they pull off an all time upset, they will have all the confidence in the world going down the home stretch.
Agreed…all it takes is a win or 2 against ranked teams and it changes the dynamics. Get to .500 and win two games in the conference tournament and we make it to the big dance.
So you think we go 4-2 in the SEC remaining games to get to 8-8, go 2-1 in the conference, and would get into the ncaa at 17-14? Yes, I want some of what you are drinking.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by volemtine »

I was drinking bourbon but now I’m celebrating with rum. Come join me in basking in the glory of beating UT!!
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by VandyDores15 »

Big credit to team tonight - a very large win for program. The key now is stringing wins together before thinking of anything significant in postseason. No margin for error, will still most likely take a SECT win.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by charlestonalum »

One at a time. We beat a very good team who played much better than they had at UF and vs. Auburn. It was a game where toughness and execution of final play in a close game led to the win. Credit players and coaching. I have not looked at box score, but my impression is UT played well enough to win, but we prevailed. Memorial magic and execution at work.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Dickeys Nightmare »

dallasdore wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:40 pm The ceiling is basically the same as it has been (sans after the Arky game when we were thinking it could be a shade higher). We should have 2-3 more conference wins. The floor would be just 1, and I'd be shocked and faint if we hit 4. Half of our remaining 8 games we have no shot in, and could get blown out in any of them.

To those thinking we have ANY shot at beating UT, pass me a glass of that koolaid! 8-)
Oops.

Sports are unpredictable.

VU student-athletes believe in their abilities, unlike some fans.

No need for Kool-Aid.

It was indeed glorious.
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by Obvious »

I believe beating Kentucky at rupp, beating auburn and miss state at home would all be quality wins. Maybe 5-2 for the remaining 7 games. And I’ll say minimum of 2 tournament wins might put our name into consideration for the ncaat
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Re: What is the ceiling now

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VUaskew
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Re: What is the ceiling now

Post by VUaskew »

my ceiling is for the guys to play to the best of their ability every game for the rest of the season, and not worry about what the post-season may bring.

This is as much about next year as it is the end of this one, in the sense of getting the mindset right to go compete every game.

Not writing off 22-23 just yet, but next year doesn't look so bad:

PG - Ezra (I hope), P Lewis, Isaiah W

SG - Tyrin, Noah, Trey? (good kid, but has hit his ceiling)

SF - Stute, Jordan if he goes to VU grad school

PF - Colin, Dia, JQ Roberts

C - Dort, Carter Lang (Dia in a pinch)
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