Three Point Percentage

[dore74]

I suspect this comes as a surprise to no one but through game five of the conference schedule there is a pretty clear correlation between how we shoot 3's and whether we win.
USC 36.8%
Mizzu 29.6%
UT 22.2%
Ark. 55.6%
ALB. 18.2%
Obviously some of this comes from the defensive pressure put on our shooters. But in the Alabama game we missed some pretty open shots. Had we shot 33% we would have had 15 more points...I get the woulda, shoulda, coulda in all this but it is what it is. Similarly, would we have held on to beat Arkansas but for an extremely hot night from beyond the arc.
More to the point going forward, with Robbins out for a long while, I wonder whether we are hot or not will be determinative of our wins and losses going forward. I may simply be Captain Obvious here but found this interesting nevertheless.

[Vandy187187]

I was looking at this too. For the season we are 32%. During SEC we are 29%. But a good 3 point team doesn't fluctuate between 18-56%. It's just too wide a margin to count on to win games. And it appears we are trending down against longer, more athletic SEC teams. And now no Robbins to help in the post. It's becoming an ice berg dead ahead moment in terms of where we go from here and if anything can be salvaged this year.

[Dsdore]

I'm looking on the bright side. Maybe.this will give the freshmen needed playing time to develop for the future and persuade them to stay at Vandy.

[utahozzie]

Wrong guys have been taking threes. If the right guys take those shots that percentage will level up. Wright needs to stop shooting 3s. Period his game is driving.

[OldDude]

Wrong guys have been taking threes. If the right guys take those shots that percentage will level up. Wright needs to stop shooting 3s. Period his game is driving.

Agree that JW can be tough inside. However he is our top 3 point shooter (ignoring Dia's 1-2). in SEC games only:

Wright 23 attempts .391%
Thomas 18 attempts .333%
Smith 15 attempts .333%
Lawrence 13 atts .308
Shelby 21 atts . 286
Stute 21 atts .190
In the SEC games both VU and our opponents have attempted 124 threes (still think this itself is weird), we have made 37, opponents have made 41. If you look at team stats as to offense over all 5 games we are fairly close, but trail badly in assists. We are doing much better in RB than I would have thought before the season.

As a team we are .298 from three (again SEC only) and to me this is where I react much as you have. I just don't think that JW taking threes is the problem; think the problem is so called shooters not hitting well. Hate to single anyone out but CJS has to find a way to get Stute back up to par. Don't know if his confidence is gone or what, but he isn't getting open, is passing up good looks ( maybe trying too hard to be a "team player") and his percentage is awful. If he starts hitting again, it opens up the game for everyone else.

Following VU for almost 60 years, I have gotten so used to having shooters that the current dearth of serious three point threats is depressing.

[AuricGoldfinger]

Stute has got to get out of the SEC funk he's in. There's no good reason for him to shoot so poorly since conference play began.

[ymtn64]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

[OldDude]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

Thanks, some very interesting stuff especially as to the player mix during Stute's minutes.

[ymtn64]

I should of said a few more things on this subject. There are multiple posters on here that probably have done way more work than I have in knowing more about who is playing along with who & the impact those decisions have made. I believe it was Jason that has warned us multiple times about how the roster has been built, and the difficulties for spacing etc. I'm not sure there is but one true shooting guard on this roster, and even he was listed like a point guard/combo guard(Shelby). I want to say coming into the season it looked like we had 5 point guards on scholarship, there isnt any way to have nice balance on a roster when one position has that many players. In many ways Ty Lawrence seems better built to be a shooting guard, and mostly he has done a nice job this season because his turnovers have improved as he has been lots healthier and recovered from a serious injury. Then again, no one will ever mistake him for John Jenkins, or even Riley LaChance or even MFD, as well as, a host of great shooting guards from years gone by.

I have noticed something more and more lately, pointed it out to our group Saturday and Tuesday night. Our best shooters rarely seem to catch the ball in a decent triple threat position. It doesn't take much to understand I've coached kids and teens in my past to notice this. It is possible that its a big deal to me because I'm getting older, and old school is less important. At first I thought the problem was the guys receiving the passes mostly that was causing us to have to work to get into a position to shoot or pass, but I noticed something else also. Either the guys making the passes aren't leading the guys to step into the right position to be ready, or we have guys trying to run an offense that they aren't best suited to play. At this point I'm probably not smart enough to know all those answers, but I know I'm always a huge fan of coaches that can get the best from their players. There are times I completely love the way CJS seems to get more from players than I imagined them being able to do, but then other times there seems to be a disconnect between the ability of the players, and what they can actually do well. I will admit, this could be way more about the players than the coach.

[memphisVUalum]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

I think Stackhouse once said that Stute has sometimes been keyed on sometimes because they the other teams regard him as a threat.

Another thing I notice is that our percentage was highest when our shooters seemed acutely focused after the insulting taunting stuff by Arkansas before the first half ended.

[Jason94]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

I agree with this completely - The change in starting lineup has most greatly negatively impacted Stute, who played most of his minutes with Wright, Manjon and Robbins previously, which resulted in better floor spacing, and featured a PG who could drive and kick. With the current starting lineup that he is a part of as accurately point out, one can crowd Thomas at the arc and not fear a blow by drive, and whoever is defending QMB can almost always cheat off of him to make sure other players are defended. Stute also has not been able to develop a counter to players crowding him at the three point line and punish them for doing so by being able to get to and finish at the rim. I would anticipate Stute would continue to struggle if we are unable to either provide him better spacing or have him on the floor more with Manjon/Wright.

[Vandy187187]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

BINGO. And with no Liam for a while this only hurts that more because you can't just insert him in there anymore he's out 4-6 weeks.

[OldDude]

I actually believe there is a real reason Stute is struggling from 3 in the SEC. Actually two reasons I see, #1 is most of the games he plays along with players that don't open up the best shooting lanes. Thomas doesn't penetrate well enough to draw the defense away from the 3pt line, and QMB doesn't ever get doubled in the post because he is such a below average scoring post player this season. I've coached and done some officiating, but nothing close to this level yet its pretty easy to see that many times the wrong mix of players are in the game together to allow for the best 3pt shooting(not sure our coach has many better options oftentimes unfortunately). #2 is anytime Liam hasn't been in the game, and to a lesser degree a true point guard that can feed the post, and add in JW needs to be an incredibly dominant player for this team to thrive while playing probably 30 plus minutes a game....Stute plays rarely with even two of those players more than a minute or two randomly, and this allowed teams early to focus on stopping him from 3. From there it seems there might be some confidence issues happening, and this is where we are for now unfortunately.

BINGO. And with no Liam for a while this only hurts that more because you can't just insert him in there anymore he's out 4-6 weeks.

My wife will have to hide all the sharp objects in the house from me. dang VU seems snake bit !

[Nashmann]

With Liam out, I don't see us having any chance for the NCAA....and only an outside chance for the NIT. Hopefully, another NIT helps us keep moving in the right direction by keeping recruits and gaining better new ones.