Will we win 10 games this season?

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Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by DS2001 »

I’m beginning to wonder.


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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by geeznotagain »

I predict 13.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by quasidiehardvandyfan »

Yes. I expect us to go 4-1 in the remaining non-conference play and hit this goal going into SEC play.

Wofford was probably the third best team we'll face in the final 6 game pre-conference stretch. A hard fought win without arguably our most important contributor, Jordan Wright. FWIW LSU had a similar outcome against Wofford a few days ago, with a 78-75 outcome.

If we were to go 3-2, I still think we have too much individual talent. An SEC upset, statistically speaking, seems highly likely. And there are several teams where we'll be favored at home.

IMO, we have 4 players capable of going off for 18 PPG:
* Myles Stute
* Tyrin Lawrence
* Jordan Wright
* Liam Robbins

Liam Robbins has become every bit what we hoped for last year. Tough to not think about what could have been with him a healthy Chatman.

I was a huge critic of Lawrence historically, but the improvement is palpable. Robbins was amazing, but were it not for Tyrin Lawrence, we lose this game.

Stute's first half was massive, and feels like only a matter of time til he puts up a career high game.

We have a second tier of guys reliable for 8 - 12 PPG, which at the moment, would include Manjon + Trey Thomas. Thomas is another player who I've always been critical of, but him sidelined, there was a spark missing, and in a role where he's no longer being relied on as a top 4 scorer, I feel he's in a better position to thrive.

It tapers off after that but Colin Smith was a clumsy play away from 8 tonight. Glad to see his (23) and Dort's minutes (12). I am so excited about the future of Lee Dort! What a force.

Hopefully more Dia + Shelby, (and a Lewis' return ?) next game.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by charlestonalum »

Yes we will win 10: frosh will improve and team will ultimately find an effective identity. A pressure packed win yesterday. If we can win these we get >10.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by nyyankeeDore »

The VU team from four years ago that failed to get 10 wins probably would be 1 and 7 at this stage of the season.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by roanoke »

Yes.

I guarantee it.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by fldore »

The trend seems to be that Stack's teams tend to underperform early in the year and then pick up steam as they go. Asking about 10 wins is a bit of a troll but it's also getting pretty annoying around here to see any criticisms of Stackhouse met with "well what about bryce drew". It was 4 years ago. With the ncaa rules set as they are now 4 years ago is like 4 decades ago. You can rebuild an entirely new team in an offseason. There are zero excuses to not be fulfilling expectations. In year 4 we should be a tourney team.

A better question is what should be the minimum expectation in year 4 and will they even reach that. With the handful of gimme non-conference games and assume you split the rest, I'd say 9-4 non-conference should be a minimum. and then split the 18 conference games, that puts you at 18-13 in the regular season. With games against Pitt and NC State remaining, I could see us finishing 8-5 non conference. And than means 10-8 in conference to hit the overall minimum. Possible if the team continues to develop and the freshman catch up to the speed of the game.

Overall though still doesnt feel like we're close to where we'd want to be in year 4. Stack has shown he can develop individual players but still unclear if he can develop a college program.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by geeznotagain »

quasidiehardvandyfan wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:33 pm
I was a huge critic of Lawrence historically, but the improvement is palpable. Robbins was amazing, but were it not for Tyrin Lawrence, we lose this game.

Agree heartily with the comments about Robbins and Lawrence. Robbins looks awkward at times, and I wish he would stop shooting 3's, but he is undoubtedly a force on both ends of the court.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by dallasdore »

I think 13 is more realistic than 10 or less. It's hard to beat the futility of coach clapper.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Liam is going to get mauled once we start conference play. He still looks just too uncoordinated and slow out there. He might look good now, but wait until he goes against a big physical center. He'll have a bunch of games this year with more fouls than points.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by DS2001 »

You all have made great points, so I’m a little more optimistic. I’ll go with Dallasdore and say we’ll get to 13 wins this year.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by VandyDores15 »

It’s concerning juniors/seniors are eating up most minutes and we are only 4-4 against a moderate schedule. Losses against Pitt and NC State and what’s our best win? An average Temple team? We have no sophomores, freshman outside of maybe Colin Smith are barely playing/not developing in real games and it appears we aren’t able to snatch key difference makers in portal. A decent ‘23 recruiting class with a few 3 stars, but I’m not seeing a window in foreseeable future where we should expect to be a tourney team. I expect CJS to get us playing better as this season progresses, but I’m also curious how we navigate a full SEC schedule without Scottie.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by quasidiehardvandyfan »

VandyDores15 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:45 pm It’s concerning juniors/seniors are eating up most minutes and we are only 4-4 against a moderate schedule. Losses against Pitt and NC State and what’s our best win? An average Temple team? We have no sophomores, freshman outside of maybe Colin Smith are barely playing/not developing in real games and it appears we aren’t able to snatch key difference makers in portal. A decent ‘23 recruiting class with a few 3 stars, but I’m not seeing a window in foreseeable future where we should expect to be a tourney team. I expect CJS to get us playing better as this season progresses, but I’m also curious how we navigate a full SEC schedule without Scottie.
If we did what we were supposed to do, we'd be 5-3, maybe 6-2 going into this final non-conference stretch. While this team has been playing down to the level of competition, they are seemingly doing a better job of keeping their composure and pulling out the wins. Previous teams struggled mightily at warding off late runs from opponents.

The real concern you flag, and which I agree with, is when do we return to tournament form? I don't mean to rehash, but last year's team with a healthy Robbins and Chatman is a tournament team. Woulda/coulda/shoulda I know, I know.

Beyond that team, it does seem like we have a few years ahead before we're regularly contending for post-season play, and I'm strictly going off player's HS rankings to get to this level of optimism. On paper a lineup of 4 stars (Dort, Shelby, Smith) and high three stars (Dia, Lewis) that stick together for 3+ years should yield a dance or two or three, but who knows how that'll turn out with tranfsers/departures/injuries/etc. The 2023 class is early, I think it's highly likely West emerges a 4 star, but point taken on it not looking crazy impressive on paper.

I'll challenge the Transfer portal difference maker point, now that we see healthy Liam Robbins. Robbins, Chatman and Manjon have been success stories thus far.

So yeah, I'm there on the frustration, if (and a big if) this is a 6 year process of slow but tangible improvement before we see the big dance consistently (which I'm defining as 3 out of the next 4 years?), are we satisfied? I guess all would be forgiven if we had success in those post-season runs... Too many hypotheticals.

Anyway, I'm not giving up on this team. I think an NIT berth is more likely but too much season left to know. If we somehow beat Pitt and NC State, we'll see a lot more optimism on this board.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by MrMemorial »

nyyankeeDore wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:40 am The VU team from four years ago that failed to get 10 wins probably would be 1 and 7 at this stage of the season.
Even with Garland's injury, the amount of veteran talent remaining should have been closer to 23-9 than 9-23.

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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by Nashmann »

I don't see a player on this team that is going to carry this team like SPJ. We have a bunch of mostly role players and bringing in a few players that are role players. Until Stack brings in some real offensive gems we will be NIT regulars. I am sure this team will play better as the season goes along and may also beat a few teams we were not supposed to. Yes Stute can go off and Wright too...but not night after night IMO against much better(most SEC teams). Too many scoring droughts. Don't see this team playing as a confident team....yet. Hopefully, Stack can get them playing better and more "together".
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by mathguy »

fldore wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:17 am The trend seems to be that Stack's teams tend to underperform early in the year and then pick up steam as they go. Asking about 10 wins is a bit of a troll but it's also getting pretty annoying around here to see any criticisms of Stackhouse met with "well what about bryce drew". It was 4 years ago. With the ncaa rules set as they are now 4 years ago is like 4 decades ago. You can rebuild an entirely new team in an offseason. There are zero excuses to not be fulfilling expectations. In year 4 we should be a tourney team.

A better question is what should be the minimum expectation in year 4 and will they even reach that. With the handful of gimme non-conference games and assume you split the rest, I'd say 9-4 non-conference should be a minimum. and then split the 18 conference games, that puts you at 18-13 in the regular season. With games against Pitt and NC State remaining, I could see us finishing 8-5 non conference. And than means 10-8 in conference to hit the overall minimum. Possible if the team continues to develop and the freshman catch up to the speed of the game.

Overall though still doesnt feel like we're close to where we'd want to be in year 4. Stack has shown he can develop individual players but still unclear if he can develop a college program.
Don't take this the wrong way, but I hate this post.

Not because the post is bad. Not even because it's wrong.

I hate this post because I don't like what's in it ... but it's also pretty accurate.

My biggest line of support for Stack has been that so far in his tenure, every year we have been better than we were the year before. Unless something changes, we appear to be taking a step back for the first time. And that's rough because we really weren't *that* good last year (I mean, I was proud of their little NIT run, but it's not like we were in the NCAAs or the top half of our conference).

I'm not ready to abandon ship just yet. Especially since I still believe that our frosh are going to do A LOT more by the end of the year than we've seen from them so far. But ... yeah. We're getting to the point where Stack has had time to show us and who and what he is as a coach ... but yet I still feel like he's the "new guy" getting his feet wet.

I'm still pro-Stack. But there is some real legit criticism there.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by commadore »

Half way there.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by Nashmann »

I say 14....going out on a limb lol
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by doubledore9603 »

There’s a lot of skepticism here, and while I understand k the genesis of that train of thought, I strongly believe this team is better than realized. The wins against Temple and Pitt are against healthy, well coached, balanced teams that are both tourney potential. VCU was won if not for officiating of 2008 tourney quality. I’m not going to give a final win total prediction, but I’m optimistic.

Liam keeps looking better every game…very calm and collected with the ball, and a monster on defense.
If we learned nothing else from the cbd era, let’s at least recognize that a 5 star recruit is not always a great college player (Shittu), while the 4 stars and even 3 stars light up the floor (Nesmith).
For those lamenting the lack of SPJ, I for one, don’t miss his circus shots, his failed attempts to extend the baseline by 3’ every game and the fact that every play was built around him.. he wasn’t a great distributor of the ball, and players like Lawrence didn’t get the chance to step up bc the big plays all went to Scotty.
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by DS2001 »

I may have to recalibrate back down to 10 wins this season. This is becoming dangerously close to Bryce Drew 2.0
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Re: Will we win 10 games this season?

Post by Vandy187187 »

doubledore9603 wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:04 pm There’s a lot of skepticism here, and while I understand k the genesis of that train of thought, I strongly believe this team is better than realized. The wins against Temple and Pitt are against healthy, well coached, balanced teams that are both tourney potential. VCU was won if not for officiating of 2008 tourney quality. I’m not going to give a final win total prediction, but I’m optimistic.

Liam keeps looking better every game…very calm and collected with the ball, and a monster on defense.
If we learned nothing else from the cbd era, let’s at least recognize that a 5 star recruit is not always a great college player (Shittu), while the 4 stars and even 3 stars light up the floor (Nesmith).
For those lamenting the lack of SPJ, I for one, don’t miss his circus shots, his failed attempts to extend the baseline by 3’ every game and the fact that every play was built around him.. he wasn’t a great distributor of the ball, and players like Lawrence didn’t get the chance to step up bc the big plays all went to Scotty.
This didn't age too well.
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