numbers after 2 games (skip if subject to nausea)

[Jason94]

So the stats for our players so far are ugly. I'll start with the good and go downward so those who can't take the slop I'm about to present can drop off at any time knowing that they didn't miss any highlights hidden within the numbers.

The Good (or perhaps more accurately, not bad):
QMB's numbers look good overall - his efficiency is great as he has made 5-8 FGA and hit all of hit FTA (ironic given our FT woes). He also hasn't turned the ball over and is rebounding like he typically does - strong on the offensive glass but only ok on the defensive glass. He is also shooting more frequently than before.

Colin Smith has been strong except for his shooting - he is just 2-7 from three and has missed all of his FTA, but the sample size is tiny at this point (this is true for every shooting stat i will note). otherwise he has taken care of the ball, been very strong on both the offensive and defensive glass and avoided turnovers. His efforts has earned him more PT. This is true to a lesser extent with Malik Dia, who has let the shots fly while he is out on the court (which isn't that often) but only been ok on the glass (good on defensive, non-existant on offensive). Ansong is a 6'-4" ball of energy who has rebounded been great on the offensive glass. He hasn't shot well so far but he hasn't disappointed, which is saying a pretty good amount for this team.

For those that have read this far, that ends the positive portion of the stats. Read further at your discretion...

The Bad:

Tyrin Lawrence's offensive rating is 83.1, which would have been 12th on last year's team, just ahead of Terren Frank. After 2 games it ranks 5th. Lawrence's main issue (and if he cleans this up he will have made a big step forward) is turnovers. For an off guard his TO rate of 37.3 is borderline criminal (he is turning the ball over in more than 1/3rd of his possessions. Otherwise he has shot the ball well and made more than 50% of his FTA, which makes him 2nd on the team in that respect so far. He should be able to rebound the ball better than he has given his 6'-4" athletic frame, but at least he is drawing fouls. Jordan Wright is also turning the ball over way too often - well above any previous season - he is also only 38.5% from inside the arc after shooting around 50% from 2 in his previous 3 seasons. He rebounding is down but he is distributing the ball pretty well and at least getting to the line. Still unacceptable play from the guy who should be our leader.

Manjon hasn't made his shots - there was no reason to believe he would be a good three point shooter going in, and Memphis was probably the best team he has ever faced, but if he is below 40% from 2 we will probably struggle a lot. Stute has a TO of 35% and you might ask "why"? I also wonder how a player who is primarily a spot up three point shooter has a TO rate that is three times higher what it should be, but it is killing his efficiency. I'm ok with him being somewhat one dimensional since he is a really good shooter, but he has an A/TO ratio of 0. The fact that he has zero assists so far is not the primary issue, and that is telling. He has grabbed a good amount of defensive boards, so there is that. Thomas needs to make threes. If he does he can play, if he doesn't he just doesn't give us anything else. He has zero rebounds so far. Players oftentimes accidentally get rebounds after the ball bounces 2 or 3 times, so to have zero in over 30 minutes of PT is wild. Thomas' TO rate is also too high (not as high as Stute) for a sport up shooter who doesn't distribute the ball much.

Here is where it gets really bad - you cannot say you haven't been warned:

The ugly:

Liam Robbins has got to be better than this - there is no way he isn't better than this that I'd have to think something external is going on that is causing him to play so poorly. Robbins has been involved in the offense - and has taken the 2nd highest percentage of shots while he is on the floor, which is probably appropriate given his talent level. His shot distribution is bad IMO - I don't care that he can make some threes, it makes zero sense for a 7'-0", 250 lb player to have shot as many threes as twos. He is at 40% from inside the arc and 20% from outside, which is also a problem but perhaps that of sample size. The distribution of shot is much more of an issue. He hasn't gotten to the line yet, has a TO rate of over 20%, and has a defensive rebounding rate of below 10%, which is worse than Manjon, worse than Pippen or Chatman last year as well. All of these players are at least 10" shorter than Robbins.

I will reserve judgement of Lewis, Shelby and Dort, as they haven't played very much at all, but the question would be "why"? I could understand if we were caught up in super tight games and our main rotation guys were playing well against tough competition, but this clearly hasn't been the case. Given what we've seen from the guys who have played one has to be concerned that both Shelby and Dort already have a "DNP - Coach's Decision" and Dort has played a grand total of 3 minutes so far. Both players were highly recruited 4 stars and while good players can sometimes struggle, for talent of this caliber to not even see the floor when we are playing this poorly is odd.

The only player on this entire list who I think is probably playing to their potential is QMB. Every other player I believe is better or much better than they are currently showing. I don't know why, but I hope that CJS does and is doing everything he can to rectify the situation, and does so quickly.

[VUaskew]

spot-on. Well done Jason.

[quasidiehardvandyfan]

Some putrid stats in there.

Will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next few games. Lawrence and Wright both had some uncharacteristically bad unforced TOs; I believe Lawrence had a pass or two just bounce off his hands and Wright lost his footing toward the end of the last game. Without those plays, their numbers move from abhorrent to just bad. Time will tell.

Lawrence's Offensive rating comparable to Terren Frank's is wild. Lots of folks were preaching that he'd come in a changed player, but looks like more of the same thus far.

I have shared my thoughts of Robbins on other threads. No idea what's going on here, but we're in trouble if this is the guy we're getting for the rest of the season. I have to think it won't be, but fundamentally his placement, shot selection and overall game needs to change, which is a tall order (no pun intended). Dort should start eating into Robbins' minutes if this continues in game 3.

Would like to see more of Shelby as well, although his shots left much to be desired. Let's chalk it to up to first game nerves.

[OldDude]

Thanks Jason - good stuff as always. Most everything in your post is cause for concern, but my personal pet peeve is free throw shooting. We stink from the line and I can't understand how young men with such great physical abilities can find FTs so difficult. We are at 52% so far and only 70% as a team last season. I'm sorry but for each player 80% should be the goal (not saying all will do that well, but it should be the target). What are the coaches telling them ? Do the best you can ? 60% is okay ? You have to aim high and practice, practice, practice. It can be done; our opponents are at 85% this year.

[Jason94]

Thanks Jason - good stuff as always. Most everything in your post is cause for concern, but my personal pet peeve is free throw shooting. We stink from the line and I can't understand how young men with such great physical abilities can find FTs so difficult. We are at 52% so far and only 70% as a team last season. I'm sorry but for each player 80% should be the goal (not saying all will do that well, but it should be the target). What are the coaches telling them ? Do the best you can ? 60% is okay ? You have to aim high and practice, practice, practice. It can be done; our opponents are at 85% this year.

To a good extent this is probably a sample size issue - a much larger issue is that we have a FT rate of just 19.2%, which is 315th in the nation. Last year our FTR was 38.7%, which was 11th. Which meant that if we typically take say, 50 shots in a game, we take around 10 FTA this year vs. 19 FTA last season. Even if we shoot the exact same percentage from the line, 70%, it still means that there are 6 fewer points we are getting from the line this season. This is an issue I was concerned about in the preseason, because Pippen's ability to get to the line was an outlier which made our offense more efficient than it would have been otherwise. This is true once you shoot FT's at a rate above around 65% I would guess. Unfortunately, the transfers we added in Manjon and Ansong were not going to be great FT shooters, and you never know how well freshmen will shoot from the line. But we have four rotation players who have yet to get to the line (Stute, Robbins, Thomas, Dia) and that is a bad thing.

[docdore]

So the stats for our players so far are ugly. I'll start with the good and go downward so those who can't take the slop I'm about to present can drop off at any time knowing that they didn't miss any highlights hidden within the numbers.

The Good (or perhaps more accurately, not bad):
QMB's numbers look good overall - his efficiency is great as he has made 5-8 FGA and hit all of hit FTA (ironic given our FT woes). He also hasn't turned the ball over and is rebounding like he typically does - strong on the offensive glass but only ok on the defensive glass. He is also shooting more frequently than before.

Colin Smith has been strong except for his shooting - he is just 2-7 from three and has missed all of his FTA, but the sample size is tiny at this point (this is true for every shooting stat i will note). otherwise he has taken care of the ball, been very strong on both the offensive and defensive glass and avoided turnovers. His efforts has earned him more PT. This is true to a lesser extent with Malik Dia, who has let the shots fly while he is out on the court (which isn't that often) but only been ok on the glass (good on defensive, non-existant on offensive). Ansong is a 6'-4" ball of energy who has rebounded been great on the offensive glass. He hasn't shot well so far but he hasn't disappointed, which is saying a pretty good amount for this team.

For those that have read this far, that ends the positive portion of the stats. Read further at your discretion...

The Bad:

Tyrin Lawrence's offensive rating is 83.1, which would have been 12th on last year's team, just ahead of Terren Frank. After 2 games it ranks 5th. Lawrence's main issue (and if he cleans this up he will have made a big step forward) is turnovers. For an off guard his TO rate of 37.3 is borderline criminal (he is turning the ball over in more than 1/3rd of his possessions. Otherwise he has shot the ball well and made more than 50% of his FTA, which makes him 2nd on the team in that respect so far. He should be able to rebound the ball better than he has given his 6'-4" athletic frame, but at least he is drawing fouls. Jordan Wright is also turning the ball over way too often - well above any previous season - he is also only 38.5% from inside the arc after shooting around 50% from 2 in his previous 3 seasons. He rebounding is down but he is distributing the ball pretty well and at least getting to the line. Still unacceptable play from the guy who should be our leader.

Manjon hasn't made his shots - there was no reason to believe he would be a good three point shooter going in, and Memphis was probably the best team he has ever faced, but if he is below 40% from 2 we will probably struggle a lot. Stute has a TO of 35% and you might ask "why"? I also wonder how a player who is primarily a spot up three point shooter has a TO rate that is three times higher what it should be, but it is killing his efficiency. I'm ok with him being somewhat one dimensional since he is a really good shooter, but he has an A/TO ratio of 0. The fact that he has zero assists so far is not the primary issue, and that is telling. He has grabbed a good amount of defensive boards, so there is that. Thomas needs to make threes. If he does he can play, if he doesn't he just doesn't give us anything else. He has zero rebounds so far. Players oftentimes accidentally get rebounds after the ball bounces 2 or 3 times, so to have zero in over 30 minutes of PT is wild. Thomas' TO rate is also too high (not as high as Stute) for a sport up shooter who doesn't distribute the ball much.

Here is where it gets really bad - you cannot say you haven't been warned:

The ugly:

Liam Robbins has got to be better than this - there is no way he isn't better than this that I'd have to think something external is going on that is causing him to play so poorly. Robbins has been involved in the offense - and has taken the 2nd highest percentage of shots while he is on the floor, which is probably appropriate given his talent level. His shot distribution is bad IMO - I don't care that he can make some threes, it makes zero sense for a 7'-0", 250 lb player to have shot as many threes as twos. He is at 40% from inside the arc and 20% from outside, which is also a problem but perhaps that of sample size. The distribution of shot is much more of an issue. He hasn't gotten to the line yet, has a TO rate of over 20%, and has a defensive rebounding rate of below 10%, which is worse than Manjon, worse than Pippen or Chatman last year as well. All of these players are at least 10" shorter than Robbins.

I will reserve judgement of Lewis, Shelby and Dort, as they haven't played very much at all, but the question would be "why"? I could understand if we were caught up in super tight games and our main rotation guys were playing well against tough competition, but this clearly hasn't been the case. Given what we've seen from the guys who have played one has to be concerned that both Shelby and Dort already have a "DNP - Coach's Decision" and Dort has played a grand total of 3 minutes so far. Both players were highly recruited 4 stars and while good players can sometimes struggle, for talent of this caliber to not even see the floor when we are playing this poorly is odd.

The only player on this entire list who I think is probably playing to their potential is QMB. Every other player I believe is better or much better than they are currently showing. I don't know why, but I hope that CJS does and is doing everything he can to rectify the situation, and does so quickly.

but but but, they all look so intimidating on instagram......

[dore74]

Stack's demeanor after the Southern Miss game was startling to me. Would have expected some Stallings emotion after a turkey performance like that. I guess we wait and see how @ Temple goes tomorrow.

[Nashmann]

Shelby was 0-3 against SM on 3pointers

[buffy]

We clearly suck, but I'll reserve judgements until the end of the season.