Six games into the conference schedule

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Jason94
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Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Jason94 »

Right now we sit at 2-4, which is about where we would have expected to start based on our schedule so far - the two surprises has been our win against Arkansas, which we were the underdog and our loss to USC, where we were the favorite. We are still showing our most likely record as being 7-11 in conference, which is where we started the conference season. There are still four more games where we are currently favored per kenpom, though two of them are closer to a pickem and could go either way.

In conference games we have been outscored by about 8 points per 100 possessions. Last season we were outscored by 8 points per 100 possessions. We went 3-13 last season because our two games with aTm were cancelled, and we likely would have beaten them twice last season. We also had a number of close 3- or 4-point losses last season and had a more difficult SEC schedule than we do this season. In other words, without Chatman or Robbins returning we will likely have a better record than last season, but overall are probably about as good as we were last season.

The offense in conference has been inconsistent at best and bad at worst. We do one thing exceptionally well, and that is get to the line, but our FT shooting percentage in conference has somewhat negated this bright spot. Our three-point shooting hasn't been great, but this league is a horrible three-point shooting league as a whole, and our 32.7% actually ranks 6th out of 14 teams. Our two-point shooting and TO rate are below average, but we are the most one and done team in the league, as our offensive rebounding rate is well below the 13th best team in the league. So, we don't shoot particularly well, don't rebound our misses, aren't great at holding onto the ball. Defensively, we have been better but not great - we are really buoyed by the fact that our opponents overall haven't hit the long ball against us and we have been good at creating turnovers (and are helped by the fact that our league is generally poor at ball control). We have major issues in both preventing offensive rebounds and 2pt defense, which is not a surprise.

Assuming Robbins and Chatman are able to play starting in February, which games could they make a difference in (assuming that should they not return that we generally beat the teams we should beat and lose to the team we underdogs to and split the close games)? I'd say that they could make a big difference in the home aTm game and road Ole Miss game, potentially pushing those games from tossup matchups to us being favored. After that there is only 2 games where we are less than a 2-possession dog (not counting USC coming up next since I don't expect either Chatman or Robbins to be playing in that game), and that is the UF and UA games at home. It may be difficult to believe after what transpired today, but we currently would be about a 2-point dog to UF at home, and the addition of two players might put us over the top. This suggests that an 8-win season is not completely out of the questions despite having not played particularly well through the first 6 games.

OTOH, I don't know that winning an additional game means that much in the grand scheme of things is the alternative is holding onto Robbins for two more seasons. A front court of Robbins, Dort and QMB would actually be potentially pretty good and also not put too much pressure on Dort to be all-world from the jump. Based on more recent lineup decisions by CJS I'd assume that Frank is gone (i don't know what more clear signal than benching the only player beside QMB taller than 6'-6" SJC could send), and Lawrence cannot be happy with the direction of his PT even with Chatman out. It is an interesting dilemma for CJS on how to construct his roster for next season to make sure he has enough talent surrounding the talented class he has coming in. While it is a strong class, it will not be a class that will likely carry the team to glory as freshmen, and the better pieces around it the better we will be in the next 1 or two seasons.


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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by GoVU »

I see two more wins on the schedule. I would love to see us eek out 4, but losing 4 of our last 5 gives little hope. If we don’t beat Georgia at home on the 29th, we will be looking at a 6 game losing streak.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by geeznotagain »

I would be surprised if, assuming Robbins comes back, he and QMB would be in the lineup at the same time.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by doubledore9603 »

Is SPJ good enough to be drafted in the 1st 2 rounds? I don't believe so. Will his ego be ok with that? That's the question...
Fans (and I think Coach) are tired of watching him dribble himself into the corners to throw up low percentage shots. The UF section rightfully harassed him with their "air ball" chant every time he touched the ball.
We won with Chatman on the floor... He's a true point guard... SPJ is a shooting guard.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by dore74 »

I’m surprised by the lack of buy in by the guys not getting much PT. Suspect there will be a ton of roster turnover as a result. Stack from afar anyway seems like a reasonable and very smart guy. So what the hell is going on?
This is a game we could have won but lost by 19 points
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by GoVU »

doubledore9603 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:42 pm Is SPJ good enough to be drafted in the 1st 2 rounds? I don't believe so. Will his ego be ok with that? That's the question...
Fans (and I think Coach) are tired of watching him dribble himself into the corners to throw up low percentage shots. The UF section rightfully harassed him with their "air ball" chant every time he touched the ball.
We won with Chatman on the floor... He's a true point guard... SPJ is a shooting guard.
I was checking the internet for NBA Draft Projections, and did not see Scottie listed on any of the 5 sights I checked. I’ve got to believe his stock may fall even further after this.

My biggest shock was how high they all had the point guard from UT on those sights. He did not impress me that much against us Tuesday
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

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dore74 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:43 pm I’m surprised by the lack of buy in by the guys not getting much PT. Suspect there will be a ton of roster turnover as a result. Stack from afar anyway seems like a reasonable and very smart guy. So what the hell is going on?
This is a game we could have won but lost by 19 points
CJS alluded to an entitlement issue with some of the guys in the post UT interview. I liked what he had to say... Ib the second half of the season you need to earn you time on the court. There's no shortage of talent on this team; but much like the CBD days, players are likely getting frustrated watching the star get time and attention even though he wasn't playing great ball... Difference now it's that CJS had SPJ on the bench a good part of today and the last game. Plenty of opportunities for these other guys to step up...I see the door wide open for those guys on the squad who want to work hard and play disciplined basketball.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Nashmann »

Who on this team(that played) would start on any other SEC team other than Pippen? Significant playing time besides Pippen?
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

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Nashmann wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:08 pm Who on this team(that played) would start on any other SEC team other than Pippen? Significant playing time besides Pippen?
The post of the month !
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

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Nashmann wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:08 pm Who on this team(that played) would start on any other SEC team other than Pippen? Significant playing time besides Pippen?
Jordan wright. He's shown he's got the talent and the leadership...Needs a legit point guard serving him up and for him to not be the only scoring threat on the floor. On defense, He's one of the few with legit hustle.

I think QMB would be a great 4 on a more fully staffed squad as well.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Foreverhopeful »

He's been inconsistent, but I think Stute is good and has potential. I'm also hoping Mann will develop since he's so strong.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by UltimateVUFan »

Foreverhopeful wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:49 pm He's been inconsistent, but I think Stute is good and has potential. I'm also hoping Mann will develop since he's so strong.
Mann’s brother was a stud his last few seasons at Georgia.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Nashmann »

Mann needs to do a body transformation like Wright did.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

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Foreverhopeful wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:49 pm He's been inconsistent, but I think Stute is good and has potential. I'm also hoping Mann will develop since he's so strong.
Wright too slow and has no game other than shooting a 3
Last edited by Nashmann on Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Nashmann »

doubledore9603 wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:38 am
Nashmann wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:08 pm Who on this team(that played) would start on any other SEC team other than Pippen? Significant playing time besides Pippen?
Jordan wright. He's shown he's got the talent and the leadership...Needs a legit point guard serving him up and for him to not be the only scoring threat on the floor. On defense, He's one of the few with legit hustle.

I think QMB would be a great 4 on a more fully staffed squad as well.
Has some talent but would not start anywhere else. He is slow and not a good ball handler.

QMB has no outside shot or creating his own shot.. Plays good defense and decent rebounder.
Would be only a backup player anywhere else.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by Nashmann »

I think Dezonie has good potential but has to stop that dumb spin move.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by UltimateVUFan »

Nashmann wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:46 pm Mann needs to do a body transformation like Wright did.
Uhhhh. Agree to disagree. He’s one of the most physical players on the court. And that transition rim rocking dunk he threw down at UGA demonstrated ample speed and hops.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by GoVU »

UltimateVUFan wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Nashmann wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:46 pm Mann needs to do a body transformation like Wright did.
Uhhhh. Agree to disagree. He’s one of the most physical players on the court. And that transition rim rocking dunk he threw down at UGA demonstrated ample speed and hops.
Mann has great effort and a hard worker, but at 6-6” playing the 4 or 5 in the best basketball conference in the country is never going to work. He cannot shoot well enough to play the three, not that we have anyone else. That can play the 4 or 5 other than QMB.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by UltimateVUFan »

GoVU wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:32 pm
UltimateVUFan wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Nashmann wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:46 pm Mann needs to do a body transformation like Wright did.
Uhhhh. Agree to disagree. He’s one of the most physical players on the court. And that transition rim rocking dunk he threw down at UGA demonstrated ample speed and hops.
Mann has great effort and a hard worker, but at 6-6” playing the 4 or 5 in the best basketball conference in the country is never going to work. He cannot shoot well enough to play the three, not that we have anyone else. That can play the 4 or 5 other than QMB.
Again, have to disagree. He is very capable of playing the 4. He rebounds and muscles for position extremely well. He reminds me of James Siakam in many ways, and he is actually further along in his development for his age than Siakam was.
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Re: Six games into the conference schedule

Post by charlestonalum »

GoVu, the ACC is better than SEC I think.
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