The typical temper expectations post

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Jason94
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The typical temper expectations post

Post by Jason94 »

I will start off by saying that Pippen returning is a massive boost to the upcoming season, and he probably alone represents 4 wins just by himself. That said, we have a bit of a ways to go to be considered a tournament team, and a number of players have to step up and be able to gel as the number of returning contributors is essentially Pippen, Wright, Thomas, Stute and QMB, and only Thomas played anywhere near half of the minutes of the latter three.

Obviously we can all engrave Pippen's name in stone in the starting lineup, and know that Wright is going to get starters minutes at one or a combination of positions. After that, we are going to be relying upon 1) completely new players who have not played with Vanderbilt before or 2) returning players making a pretty massive jump in productivity and efficiency. Based on last season's numbers, for us to have a tournament level team, QMB, Stute and Thomas are either not playing a lot or a limited role players. That is not to say that they won't improve, but for them to be significant rotation guys on a good team would mean that they would have to improve significantly.

For the newcomers, Liam Robbins is the player who is more likely to not only start immediately, but be among the top contributors in both scoring and rebounding, as well as significantly improve our post defense, which has been porous over the last few seasons since Luke graduated. The main issue for him will be keeping him on the floor and out of foul trouble, and finding a backup who can play 15 mpg and not be a disaster. Rodney Chatman represents a solid (if not dynamic) option at the off guard position as well as a player who has a ton of minutes on good teams. The reason why some might suggest he not start is because he has shown the ability to run point, but Pippen's ability to play so many minutes probably means that he could do both.

That makes what I would consider to be 4 reliable players, and it would appear that CJS needs to identify 4 additional players who can provide consistent minutes and scoring. Of those, at least two need to be post players. Which gets back to the original point, all four of those players will either be completely new or have to really step up their game for us to be good. It is possible that this can occur, but certainly isn't a given. Had Disu stayed, we would only be looking for 3 additional players, and the chances there would have been much greater. I would suggest that an 9-9 SEC season would be a great improvement and one that would buy CJS more time, which he is going to need as next season will be a rebuilding one regardless.


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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by alathIN »

I agree Pippen, Wright, Chatman, and Robbins are the only four players we can have some confidence in as main contributors - and Pippen clearly more than the other three.

And I also agree, if the team is going to have a shot at postseason play there will need to be some surprises - previously unproven players who come up big, or returning players who improve much more than expected.
By definition, surprises are lower probability than results within the expected range.

My most optimistic thought is that Lawrence, Dorsey, Daniels, and Dezonie (and maybe Mann?) are all plausible candidates to be pleasantly surprising. Its a long odds proposition, but at least we get to spin the roulette wheel four or five times rather than just one or two.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by TwoSaints »

Of course.. That’s a very intelligent, nuanced, and well-reasoned point, Jason. As ever. But it only works if you’re somehow able to forget the last three years. So, like everyone else who can’t do that and will be scarred for life by CBD and the resulting hangover (“Aahh!! My eyes, my eyes!!”), I’m determined to be ecstatic. 🎉

(At least until the SEC schedule starts looming around Christmas time.)
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by MrMemorial »

All this talk of continued doom & gloom makes for a good anti-jinx.

As a matter of fact, we might not win a single game. We might not even get close.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by roanoke »

People are really sleeping on Thomas. I thought he was really good. And I thought he had good chemistry on the court with Pippen.

I also think in CJS's perfect world, he wants to play a swarming defense with lots of fast guards who can put pressure on opponents and get into transition. I think with this roster - there is a decent chance he will be able to do what he wants to do this year. We will see how it works - I am ok with tempering expectations. But I am also bullish. I think we > could < be very good.

My opening day prediction of line-up is:

Pippen
Thomas
Chatman
Wright
Robbins

But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by UltimateVUFan »

roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am People are really sleeping on Thomas. I thought he was really good. And I thought he had good chemistry on the court with Pippen.
Agreed. I liked what I saw out of Thomas as an undersized true freshman. He seemed like the gem of last year’s class in many ways (caveat being that we never really saw Lawrence in action, and he was starting at the beginning of the season). Thomas was somewhat turnover prone at times and also could get overwhelmed/outmuscled against upper echelon competition. Still, he showed a lot of moxie and grit (and all those other “intangibles” buzz words :D). I think at a minimum he could be a solid change of pace guard off the bench, because he has a pretty high motor.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by mathguy »

TwoSaints wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:42 am Of course.. That’s a very intelligent, nuanced, and well-reasoned point, Jason. As ever. But it only works if you’re somehow able to forget the last three years. So, like everyone else who can’t do that and will be scarred for life by CBD and the resulting hangover (“Aahh!! My eyes, my eyes!!”), I’m determined to be ecstatic. 🎉

(At least until the SEC schedule starts looming around Christmas time.)
Yeah ... at this point, forget a chance at 9-9 ... if we go 7-11 in the SEC I will feel like we are KINGS.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by mathguy »

roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
I realize that NONE of the guys on this team (even Pippen) are Shan Foster or Derrick Byars, but the last time we had a team with 4 perimeter guys shooting and 1 guy pretending to be a center, we were pretty good...
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by UltimateVUFan »

mathguy wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:44 pm
roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
I realize that NONE of the guys on this team (even Pippen) are Shan Foster or Derrick Byars, but the last time we had a team with 4 perimeter guys shooting and 1 guy pretending to be a center, we were pretty good...
I mean…if Pippen shows any improvement he could easily be an SEC POY candidate. He did finish second in the SEC in points, assists, and steals last season. If he lowered his turnover rate and became slightly more efficient he would very much be in the conversation.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by Jason94 »

mathguy wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:44 pm
roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
I realize that NONE of the guys on this team (even Pippen) are Shan Foster or Derrick Byars, but the last time we had a team with 4 perimeter guys shooting and 1 guy pretending to be a center, we were pretty good...
That team was really experienced though - starting lineup had two seniors (including a 5th year senior) and three juniors (Neltner a 4th year junior). Four of those player had also played a large number of minutes the previous season and the fifth was with the team the entire season. Which has been the problem the last couple of seasons - we don't seem to ever have any senior contributors. Cage and Byars had sublime senior seasons (even Skuchas played as well as he had ever played) - teams that don't rely upon one and done players can level the playing filed through seniors playing above and beyond.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by Jason94 »

roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am People are really sleeping on Thomas. I thought he was really good. And I thought he had good chemistry on the court with Pippen.

I also think in CJS's perfect world, he wants to play a swarming defense with lots of fast guards who can put pressure on opponents and get into transition. I think with this roster - there is a decent chance he will be able to do what he wants to do this year. We will see how it works - I am ok with tempering expectations. But I am also bullish. I think we > could < be very good.

My opening day prediction of line-up is:

Pippen
Thomas
Chatman
Wright
Robbins

But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
I think Thomas is a really good shooter from beyond the arc, but the simple fact is that if he doesn't improve on his defense or his ability to score inside the arc, he is a bit limited to being a role player. Not to say he cannot be an important role player (three point specialist), but our team has a ceiling if he is one of our top 5 overall players IMO. Chatman should be a better option at point and is likely a much better defender. Every other player that is an option is also taller and heavier than Thomas.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by Nashmann »

I just don't see Thomas starting but will play in a limited role. I think he has been recruited over at least I hope so. Thomas is pretty much a spot-up shooter and shined because we were so bad or at least inconsistent. Unless he improves the other parts of his game(defense, quickness, and ability to create his own shot) he will continue to be a sub role player. Hope I am wrong and he blossoms into a more well-rounded player. I worry Patterson will be a clone of Thomas and less athletic and a step slower. There too I hope I am wrong. I think there are some really good guard possibilities this year!!
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by mathguy »

Jason94 wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:53 pm
mathguy wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:44 pm
roanoke wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:18 am But I am not sure starting will mean much except to Pippen and Robbins. Hot hand will play. I suspect the starting lineup for the first SEC game will include at least one freshman not on this list. And who knows how good Lawrence is? We just didn't get any chance to see him. If a young true 4 earns a starting job, Wright could slide to the starting 3. I'm expecting us to look like 4 fast interchangeable parts - with a legit 7 foot center at the 5: a look we really haven't had in recent memory. Should be an intriguing lineup for creative zones.
I realize that NONE of the guys on this team (even Pippen) are Shan Foster or Derrick Byars, but the last time we had a team with 4 perimeter guys shooting and 1 guy pretending to be a center, we were pretty good...
That team was really experienced though - starting lineup had two seniors (including a 5th year senior) and three juniors (Neltner a 4th year junior). Four of those player had also played a large number of minutes the previous season and the fifth was with the team the entire season. Which has been the problem the last couple of seasons - we don't seem to ever have any senior contributors. Cage and Byars had sublime senior seasons (even Skuchas played as well as he had ever played) - teams that don't rely upon one and done players can level the playing filed through seniors playing above and beyond.
Don't worry Jason, I wasn't predicting a Sweet 16 run (obligatory d*** Jeff Green comment here). As I said in a different post, after the last few years, I'd actually be excited with a team that can win 6 or 7 SEC games. Rather, I was just noting that roanoke was describing a style of play that's been good to us over the years.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by AuricGoldfinger »

I, too, worry about the lack of experience. And not just the lack of playing together--that's obvious, and I realize a lot of other teams in college basketball will be dealing with the same issue. We're still a relatively young team, even with the talent transferring from elsewhere. I'm hoping for a favorable non-conference schedule.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by Doreknox »

I can't see us having any better than a .500 team this year. If we do better, it will be a miracle.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by MrMemorial »

I think (barring injury or other unfortunate unexpected events) this team (even without Disu) has the talent to be in the running for the big dance and will finish over .500 both overall and in the SEC. But I appreciate those who predict doom&gloom because it serves as an effective anti-jinx.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

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I'm not trying to be argumentative but what expectation? IMHO, you would have to be just about delusional to set high expectations for a team with the type of turnover that this team has recently endured (I think there were 7 who transferred out). This program has won 6 regular season SEC games in the last 3 seasons combined so am I missing something? The new additions (transfers and recruits) will not quickly make this program rise.
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by MrMemorial »

cc11316 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:48 am I'm not trying to be argumentative but what expectation? IMHO, you would have to be just about delusional to set high expectations for a team with the type of turnover that this team has recently endured (I think there were 7 who transferred out). This program has won 6 regular season SEC games in the last 3 seasons combined so am I missing something? The new additions (transfers and recruits) will not quickly make this program rise.
Nice anti-jinx. We might not win a game for years. (wink-wink)
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by cc11316 »

MrMemorial wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:09 pm
cc11316 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:48 am I'm not trying to be argumentative but what expectation? IMHO, you would have to be just about delusional to set high expectations for a team with the type of turnover that this team has recently endured (I think there were 7 who transferred out). This program has won 6 regular season SEC games in the last 3 seasons combined so am I missing something? The new additions (transfers and recruits) will not quickly make this program rise.
Nice anti-jinx. We might not win a game for years. (wink-wink)
I wish I were that clever. :lol:
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Re: The typical temper expectations post

Post by Go Vandy! »

Jason94 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:32 pmI will start off by saying that Pippen returning is a massive boost to the upcoming season....
..and the fact that Stack seems to have discovered recruiting. I'm 67, a VU fan (off & on) for 50+ years, I'm a *glass 2/3 empty fan-can't help it, it's my nature- and I'm a little excited for this season.

*Technically, as someone pointed out... somewhere i don't know- the glass is ALWAYS full. Of something + something.
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