Game One Starters?

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TwoSaints
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Re: Game One Starters?

Post by TwoSaints »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:32 am I would assume Stute over Frank at this moment, unless there is something I am missing with Frank, who played sparingly outside of 4 games and rebounded the ball like Scottie Pippen (not the NBA HOF'er, like a PG). Stute has to develop the ability to score inside the arc, but his three point shooting should get better, and played consistent minutes last season.
Yeah, his numbers from last year are certainly underwhelming. But I think it's important to keep in mind three things:

First, as your post pointed out, he really only played in four games last year. It's pretty hard to judge a player based on four games in their freshman year. He did average 20 min in those games, but only produced 5 pts on 40% shooting, with 2 reb per game. Not so good. But he also shot 40% from 3pt range on 2.5 shots per game. That's not bad for a guy who's listed as 6'8" 235 lbs. And those four games were agains Iowa State, #13 Texas, Kansas State, and #10 West Virginia. So... we've had worse freshman-year performances from great players in the past.

Second, he was infected with Covid-19 last year. That obviously has a range of effects on different people, from negligible to life-altering to fatal. But remember that it took Jayson Tatum almost the entire season this year before he was able to play at 100%. He wasn't badly affected by it. But it's most common effects are respiratory and cardio-vascular, and Tatum said the main problem was that he was very easily fatigued--for something like six months. If Frank was similarly affected, then the fact that played 20 mpg against four good Big-12 teams and could contribute at all is pretty good.

Third, since four games is very little to go on, maybe we should consider how he did in high school. I don't have much in the way of stats for him (oddly, a lot of recruiting sites don't allow you to access them from overseas :roll: ). Note that he could've come to Vanderbilt last year. Stack obviously liked what he saw of Terren in HS. And he wasn't alone: In addition to Vanderbilt and TCU, he had offers from some very good schools, including USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, Colorado, San Diego State, and Western Kentucky. That's a pretty good list. ESPN had him ranked as a four-star recruit, 82nd ranked for the year--and that's when he was a 6'7", 190 lb. wing! Terren's obviously bigger and stronger now, but he still shot well from outside last year.

So... If he's fully healthy now, has adjusted to his size increase (and hopefully learned some things about rebounding and interior defense), and has a real desire to prove his detractors wrong, I think he could turn out to be very good. Or let's put it another way: What if he hadn't played at all last year, instead of playing while fighting off a deadly infection? Wouldn't you be pretty jazzed about getting a muscular, 6'8", four-star/Top-100 forward, who can shoot well from outside and already has two years' experience playing alongside Scottie Pippen Jr.?


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Re: Game One Starters?

Post by Jason94 »

TwoSaints wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:11 pm
So... If he's fully healthy now, has adjusted to his size increase (and hopefully learned some things about rebounding and interior defense), and has a real desire to prove his detractors wrong, I think he could turn out to be very good. Or let's put it another way: What if he hadn't played at all last year, instead of playing while fighting off a deadly infection? Wouldn't you be pretty jazzed about getting a muscular, 6'8", four-star/Top-100 forward, who can shoot well from outside and already has two years' experience playing alongside Scottie Pippen Jr.?
I'm not sure that I would be any more excited about him that any of the other freshmen we have coming in, and would set my expectations accordingly for a non-5 star freshman. I'm not particularly impressed about a 5-13 shooting mark from three - it is nice, but the sample size is just too small to draw any conclusions. It is also noteworthy that after playing those significant minutes, he was essentially relegated to mop up minutes for the remaining 5 games. TCU was not a good team last season so it isn't like his play was costing them critical games. But again, all that stuff is secondary to my primary concern, which is that his numbers almost suggest that he was avoiding rebounds. For instance, no player on the 2017 team had a lower defensive rebounding rate than Frank had last season. Even point guards will accidentally grab 10% of available defensive boards just off of balls that just come to them. Sample sizes are what they are here, but rebounding rates tend to be much more predictive even with small sample sizes (for instance, James Siakam's offensive rebounding rate as a sophomore was 14% despite playing sporadically).

I don't really see any reason to be more excited about him than Daniels or Dorsey, which is to say that it is possible that any one of them turn into something pretty good as a freshman, but it is not likely that all of them do, and I don't have any reason to choose one of another as being more or less likely of being that individual.
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Re: Game One Starters?

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Jason94 wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:45 pm I don't really see any reason to be more excited about him than Daniels or Dorsey, which is to say that it is possible that any one of them turn into something pretty good as a freshman, but it is not likely that all of them do, and I don't have any reason to choose one of another as being more or less likely of being that individual.
Neither Daniels nor Dorsey was a top-100 recruit. Frank was. In fact, he was ranked higher in 2020 than Dezonie is this year. He was a starter for one of the best teams in the country and a two-time California state champion. He actually had a good shot at being the first three-time Open Division state champ in history, but the playoffs were cancelled due to the pandemic. Here's how a writer for the LA Daily News described his game:
Frank is averaging 11 points and seven rebounds per game this season.

The numbers don’t jump off the page, but his role is very similar to forward Draymond Green of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors – a comparison Frank likes. Like Green, Frank’s physical play is pivotal when playing teams with an inside presence. Frank is often seen grabbing a much-needed rebound or guarding the opposing team’s best forward down the stretch of big games.

“I like that comparison, although I think I’m more skilled and can shoot it a little better (at this stage in my career),” Frank said. “I definitely communicate with my teammates and play tough defense like Draymond.”
And of course let's not forget that, like some other players who we've all gotten excited about in recent years (Luke Kornet and his high school teammates Scottie Pippen Jr. and Kenyon Martin Jr.--all of whom were ranked lower than he was), his father had an NBA career. And the only reason everyone has overlooked that is because of four games that he played during the pandemic.

I'm not assuming he'll be a great player for us, either. Many freshman, including top-ten one-and-dones (as we learned a couple of years ago) don't pan out. And I don't know how ill he was last year. But you're putting an awful lot of weight lot on four games played under extraordinary circumstances. I'm just saying that maybe you should consider the three years that came before it before dismissing him out of hand. I at least am psyched to see what he can do.
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Re: Game One Starters?

Post by Jason94 »

TwoSaints wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:11 am
Jason94 wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:45 pm I don't really see any reason to be more excited about him than Daniels or Dorsey, which is to say that it is possible that any one of them turn into something pretty good as a freshman, but it is not likely that all of them do, and I don't have any reason to choose one of another as being more or less likely of being that individual.
Neither Daniels nor Dorsey was a top-100 recruit. Frank was. In fact, he was ranked higher in 2020 than Dezonie is this year. He was a starter for one of the best teams in the country and a two-time California state champion. He actually had a good shot at being the first three-time Open Division state champ in history, but the playoffs were cancelled due to the pandemic. Here's how a writer for the LA Daily News described his game:
Frank is averaging 11 points and seven rebounds per game this season.

The numbers don’t jump off the page, but his role is very similar to forward Draymond Green of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors – a comparison Frank likes. Like Green, Frank’s physical play is pivotal when playing teams with an inside presence. Frank is often seen grabbing a much-needed rebound or guarding the opposing team’s best forward down the stretch of big games.

“I like that comparison, although I think I’m more skilled and can shoot it a little better (at this stage in my career),” Frank said. “I definitely communicate with my teammates and play tough defense like Draymond.”
And of course let's not forget that, like some other players who we've all gotten excited about in recent years (Luke Kornet and his high school teammates Scottie Pippen Jr. and Kenyon Martin Jr.--all of whom were ranked lower than he was), his father had an NBA career. And the only reason everyone has overlooked that is because of four games that he played during the pandemic.

I'm not assuming he'll be a great player for us, either. Many freshman, including top-ten one-and-dones (as we learned a couple of years ago) don't pan out. And I don't know how ill he was last year. But you're putting an awful lot of weight lot on four games played under extraordinary circumstances. I'm just saying that maybe you should consider the three years that came before it before dismissing him out of hand. I at least am psyched to see what he can do.
How am I putting that much weight by being skeptical of his being ahead of other players? Last season, unlike that for the other players (as you appear to be arguing) was a lost season, enough to take down a top 100 talent so that he was not particularly good at the thing he should have been good at - maybe it was a fluke, or maybe it takes him a while to recover - we don't know. I was also under the impression that he was a 3 star recruit whose ranking hovered in the 150+ range per the 247 composite, not that he was a top 100 recruit (like say, Dezonie is). I'll be ecstatic if Frank turns out to be a beast, but I don't have any reason to think he will be a starter ahead of a half dozen other players given Wright's versatility that could have him playing either the 3 or 4. I'd say I'm taking the most recent relevant information and processing it accordingly, which is not suggesting he is likely to set the world on fire to start. Hope he proves me wrong.
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Re: Game One Starters?

Post by MrMemorial »

TwoSaints wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:11 am
Jason94 wrote: Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:45 pm I don't really see any reason to be more excited about him than Daniels or Dorsey, which is to say that it is possible that any one of them turn into something pretty good as a freshman, but it is not likely that all of them do, and I don't have any reason to choose one of another as being more or less likely of being that individual.
Neither Daniels nor Dorsey was a top-100 recruit. Frank was. In fact, he was ranked higher in 2020 than Dezonie is this year. He was a starter for one of the best teams in the country and a two-time California state champion. He actually had a good shot at being the first three-time Open Division state champ in history, but the playoffs were cancelled due to the pandemic. Here's how a writer for the LA Daily News described his game:
Frank is averaging 11 points and seven rebounds per game this season.

The numbers don’t jump off the page, but his role is very similar to forward Draymond Green of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors – a comparison Frank likes. Like Green, Frank’s physical play is pivotal when playing teams with an inside presence. Frank is often seen grabbing a much-needed rebound or guarding the opposing team’s best forward down the stretch of big games.

“I like that comparison, although I think I’m more skilled and can shoot it a little better (at this stage in my career),” Frank said. “I definitely communicate with my teammates and play tough defense like Draymond.”
And of course let's not forget that, like some other players who we've all gotten excited about in recent years (Luke Kornet and his high school teammates Scottie Pippen Jr. and Kenyon Martin Jr.--all of whom were ranked lower than he was), his father had an NBA career. And the only reason everyone has overlooked that is because of four games that he played during the pandemic.

I'm not assuming he'll be a great player for us, either. Many freshman, including top-ten one-and-dones (as we learned a couple of years ago) don't pan out. And I don't know how ill he was last year. But you're putting an awful lot of weight lot on four games played under extraordinary circumstances. I'm just saying that maybe you should consider the three years that came before it before dismissing him out of hand. I at least am psyched to see what he can do.
Good explanations, Mr. Saints. I appreciate the time and thought you put into your responses. AD*
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Re: Game One Starters?

Post by Hutch37 »

the only surefire starters are Pippen,Wright and Robbins.

Chatman seems probable but esp if he is also our backup pg then he may be better coming in as the 6th man.
I think it makes it all pretty interesting to have so many lineup options.

Robbins adds such a different piece that it makes things tough to predict- will he be an offensive threat? which means we actually throw it to him posting up? can he rim protect and rebound? if yes to all three then that makes our 4 more flexible- if he is not an incredible rebounder then our 4 is going to have to be willing to mix it up inside- can that be wright? we know pippen can drive - if our wings can hit shots then watch out . We know coach does not like midrange- he wants layups and 3's - so that means we are depending on freshmen, transfers or our sophomores(and our highest guard recruit last year- lawrence was hurt and missed most of the season).This is all why anyone looking at our team would have a hard time saying we are any good before the season.
For us remaining diehards though we sure seem to have a lot of "potential pieces" that make this a pretty fun team to watch develop. Especially since it is starting to look like a CJS type team. Remember how close we were in so many games? and with Disu playing out of position? add in a true center with one of the SEC's best returning PGs and that should open up our shooters much more
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