Where this program stands

For discussion of Vanderbilt Commodores men's basketball games and recruiting.

Moderators: kerrigjl, BrentVU, jfgogold, NateSY, KarenYates, Vandyman74, roanoke, VandyWhit

Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

As a basketball school for most of the time I've followed and rooted for Vanderbilt, this is definitely the most difficult time that we've ever been in. The overall college basketball landscape is more challenging than it has been before due to the pandemic and wide open transfer rules, and we are in about the worst position we can possibly be to react to these changes.

Our record over the last four seasons is 41-80 (12-58 SEC). Without looking it up, I would guess this is by far the worst 4 year stretch we've ever had by a wide margin. None of the players in our program have experienced a winning season or anything close to memorial magic. Our last championship was in 2012, when recruits were in elementary school and probably had no idea who Vanderbilt is. While we have a proud tradition and have had pockets of success, we are in uncharted territory and pretty strong measures need to be taken to get us out of where we are.

Our largest issue is one of continuity (or lack thereof). While this is a general reality of college athletics even in the best of circumstances, the last few years have seen how constant roster turnover can lead to disastrous results. Our issues has not be a lack of top end talent - Saben Lee, Aaron Nesmith, Scottie Pippen, Dylan Disu are top level SEC players - players, given full seasons are good enough to be on All-SEC teams. The main issue is getting enough seasons of high level play from these players is just not happening, which has meant that each year we are having to find a new alpha-dog to lead the team. The other main issue is overall depth of talent - beyond our top one or two players, our 3rd or 4th through 8th best players have provided significantly less production than the average SEC team. Having to find a new best player every year and then asking them to carry a extra heavy load is a pretty sure fire way to remain in the SEC basement.

If Pippen returns, that would obviously make a huge difference in next season's production and determination of who plays the point position. But who is our second best player? Maybe Wright, who I like a lot but is probably not a 15 ppg scorer without a lot of improvement. If not Wright, then we are hoping for a newcomer to fill that role, which is a lot to ask. We will be asking a lot of the newcomers anyway, and assuming we can count on 35-40 PPG from Pippen, Wright, Thomas and Stute, then we will need 35 to 40 PPG from new players, which is going to be difficult to get consistently IMO. Note this scenario is best case at the moment, assuming that Pippen does return. Without Pippen I hope one can see that we would probably 55-60 PPG from newcomers to hope to have a competitive offense, which I would suggest is very unlikely to occur.

CJS has a very difficult job - at this point it is one that will probably take at least 2 seasons to create a turnaround, but will require far more continuity of our personnel that we have had over the last couple of seasons. And that should be of concern to all vandy basketball fans (that still remain). It might not even necessarily be his fault should he not succeed, and at this point success is far from guarenteed.


UltimateVUFan
Vice Admiral
Posts: 3143
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:25 am
Has thanked: 163 times
Been thanked: 94 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by UltimateVUFan »

This. All of it. This is not pessimism as some might suggest. It is a completely realistic assessment of the state of the program.
Laker42
Ensign
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:49 pm
Been thanked: 5 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Laker42 »

If Pippen and Disu end up playing for another university, i believe the fanbase as a whole should look in the mirror and take a percentage of the blame.

Put yourself in a 20ish year old shoes, and go back and read this board. We have a hard time cherishing players.
This goes back a long time too. Ive been here since the Drew Maddux days and used to beg people to not move onto the next recruiting class, because we still have Atiba and James Strong after Drew left.

I know it takes some wins. But we need to back these dudes, show up, and show out when we have a chance to get into that building
User avatar
charlestonalum
Fleet Admiral
Posts: 13165
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:37 am
Location: Charleston, SC
Has thanked: 101 times
Been thanked: 81 times
Contact:

Re: Where this program stands

Post by charlestonalum »

If there has ever been a time to support our team it is now. I agree.
User avatar
EagleDore
Rear Admiral
Posts: 1066
Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:21 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 5 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by EagleDore »

I think you've made some great analysis. "The main issue is getting enough seasons of high level play from these players is just not happening, which has meant that each year we are having to find a new alpha-dog to lead the team." Think of how hard it is to gel the group of changing players each year into a team. The lack of continuity of players requires a complete makeover every year (a al UK), and as you note, we're in a bad state to immediately deal with this type of change. CJS not only has to recruit and coach, but work hard and pray he can keep enough talent year to year to be competitive. Do coaches need a psychology degree to keep the players happy enough to stay and not transfer? Under the new situation coach must also be a master team builder able to pull together or unify those he has left and can get thru the transfer portal just to be competitive. It appears that it is increasingly hard to keep a consistent core of good players together.

Switch over to the fan base - the support - and it is hard to get hyped on players who are one and done. I think a lot of us have enjoyed getting to know our players, following them through multiple years of growth and development, and we've done decently well in that system when our alpha dogs have stayed 3 to 4 years or good players have realized their potential in years 3 and 4. At least we usually had hope before each season began. It is sad to realize that our fan experience is changing - not just in won and loss records, but also in our ability to know our team, and follow the members through 4 years of development. So, we should absolutely support our teams, but we probably have to accept that we need to accept that our old way of "fan experience" is altered with the changing times in college BB in order to give the best support.
MrMemorial
Rear Admiral
Posts: 2016
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:37 pm
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by MrMemorial »

Disu+Evans+Harvey took 481 shots last season... so we don't really know what Jordan Wright's scoring will look like from the wing without those three around taking tons of shots. I'm not going to guarantee 15ppg but I'm not ruling it out either. He had ten double figure scoring games WITH those other guys including 18 vs Kentucky and 14 vs Auburn. And now there is going to be a legit option in the paint to draw defenders away from the wing. For a change.
Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

MrMemorial wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:00 pm Disu+Evans+Harvey took 481 shots last season... so we don't really know what Jordan Wright's scoring will look like from the wing without those three around taking tons of shots. I'm not going to guarantee 15ppg but I'm not ruling it out either. He had ten double figure scoring games WITH those other guys including 18 vs Kentucky and 14 vs Auburn. And now there is going to be a legit option in the paint to draw defenders away from the wing. For a change.
They took a ton of shots because that is what CJS wanted them to do (not sure why you lump Harvey with DIsu and Pippen, but not include say, Evans, who took more shots than Harvey). A better way to look at it is Pippen took 32% of all available shots while he was on the floor. Almost 1 in 3 shots, plus he used 35% of all possessions while he was on the floor, over 1 in 3. Disu took almost 24% of shots while he was on the floor and used about 23% of all possessions. So those two players were clearly the most involved in the offense both from a shooting of the ball and handling the ball standpoints. In addition, the two combined for 239 FTA, while Harvey attempted only 18. Outside of Pippen and Disu the entire team only attempted 227 FTA. Additionally, Pippen and Disu were by far the most efficient players outside of Evans (who is gone) and QMB (who shot so infrequently that his efficiency was mainly due to his only shooting when he could dunk or lay the ball up). That means that returning players not only will have to take on a much larger offensive load, but will have to be more efficient simultaneously. As I noted in my previous analysis, this is exceedingly rare.

In other words, while Pippen and Disu took a ton of shots, they were generally really efficient will their shots so we good a very good number of points per shot taken from those two players. Remember that Saben Lee took 414 shots by himself in 2020, and his shots had to be taken up by Pippen to a large extent, but one would be foolish to suggest we were better off last season without him. With Lee, that would have meant a lot fewer shots for players like Harvey, Wright, Thomas and Stute, while Disu and Pippen would have likely been even more efficient.

This also overlooks the fact that Pippen assisted on over 1 in 3 made baskets while he was in the game, which is incredible considering he was making over 30% of the baskets himself. That means that Pippen either made or directly assisted on around 80% of the baskets scored while he was on the court. And Disu averaged more than twice as many rebounds as the second highest average on the team (Wright).

Again, it is exceedingly obvious that we would be a far better team next season with Pippen and Disu than without them. If CJS is able to get more than 5 SEC wins without both of them on the team next season I will consider it to be one of the great coaching jobs in VU history. And that is the problem.
alathIN
Rear Admiral
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:35 pm
Has thanked: 19 times
Been thanked: 42 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by alathIN »

Where the program stands is a lot to do with what next year's roster looks like.

Pretty sure we will have:
1s-2s: Trey Thomas, Tyrin Lawrence, Isiah Wright, Peyton Daniels, Rodney Chatman
2-3s: Jordan Wright, Miles Stute
3-4s: Myles Stute, Gabe Dorsey, Terren Frank
4-5s: Liam Robbins, Quentin Millora-Brown, Akeem Odusipe

The past few years our plight has been a couple of star players and at least one glaring weak spot that gets mercilessly exploited by opponents. This group looks to me almost the opposite - a decent supporting cast but no stars- and a couple of players who are projects or question marks.

The biggest question of course is whether Pippen comes back. If he does I could almost see this being a bubble team (assuming a bunch of other questions have favorable answers).

Stute showed some very good shooting early, then showed major problems in other areas of his game - then it seemed lost confidence or wound up in the dog house and kind of faded. Can he raise up his problem areas and be the shooter we saw early? If so, he could be a very valuable player. If he's a good shooter who is a liability on defense, his contributions will be very limited. If his shooting doesn't re-ignite I dont see what he brings.

Will either or both of the freshmen come in and make an impact? Going by their recruiting rankings etc they are in the range of a lot of Stallings era players who wound up being great juniors/seniors but not stellar as freshmen. I suspect they will both get playing time which is only a good thing if they come in more SEC-ready than expected.

What will post-injury Lawrence be like? He was supposedly our best 2020 class recruit.

Will Odusipe develop into a contributor?

Jordan Wright strikes me as one of these guys who is not super athletically gifted, but has a high basketball IQ an can do a little bit of everything - kind of like a utility player in baseball. If he's on the floor with four other SEC quality players I think he's an asset. If he's the #2 scoring option on the team that may not be so great.

I suspected Liam Robbins will be a quality SEC center but not a lottery pick type talent. Could help with rebounding and defense tremendously. Probably a guy that Pippen could dish a lot of assists to... but probably not an elite offensive player himself.

For this team to better than last season's, I think Pippen needs to come back plus some of the questions above need to be answered favorably.


I hate to make the State of the Program into a Next Year's Roster question, but I think that's where we are. For the program to be even remotely healthy, the team needs to be more competitive than the past two seasons. And I am not sure I see that happening.

I also hate to dwell on what-if's, but the above roster with both Pippen and Disu is not just a bubble team, but a tournament team in my opinion. Could be decent with Pippen and no Disu. Without either I do not foresee another year much like the past two. The state of the program requires improvement this year, I believe. After another dismal year I don't see how Stackhouse turns this around.
Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

alathIN wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:34 pm Where the program stands is a lot to do with what next year's roster looks like.

Pretty sure we will have:
1s-2s: Trey Thomas, Tyrin Lawrence, Isiah Wright, Peyton Daniels, Rodney Chatman
2-3s: Jordan Wright, Miles Stute
3-4s: Myles Stute, Gabe Dorsey, Terren Frank
4-5s: Liam Robbins, Quentin Millora-Brown, Akeem Odusipe

The past few years our plight has been a couple of star players and at least one glaring weak spot that gets mercilessly exploited by opponents. This group looks to me almost the opposite - a decent supporting cast but no stars- and a couple of players who are projects or question marks.

The biggest question of course is whether Pippen comes back. If he does I could almost see this being a bubble team (assuming a bunch of other questions have favorable answers).

Stute showed some very good shooting early, then showed major problems in other areas of his game - then it seemed lost confidence or wound up in the dog house and kind of faded. Can he raise up his problem areas and be the shooter we saw early? If so, he could be a very valuable player. If he's a good shooter who is a liability on defense, his contributions will be very limited. If his shooting doesn't re-ignite I dont see what he brings.

Will either or both of the freshmen come in and make an impact? Going by their recruiting rankings etc they are in the range of a lot of Stallings era players who wound up being great juniors/seniors but not stellar as freshmen. I suspect they will both get playing time which is only a good thing if they come in more SEC-ready than expected.

What will post-injury Lawrence be like? He was supposedly our best 2020 class recruit.

Will Odusipe develop into a contributor?

Jordan Wright strikes me as one of these guys who is not super athletically gifted, but has a high basketball IQ an can do a little bit of everything - kind of like a utility player in baseball. If he's on the floor with four other SEC quality players I think he's an asset. If he's the #2 scoring option on the team that may not be so great.

I suspected Liam Robbins will be a quality SEC center but not a lottery pick type talent. Could help with rebounding and defense tremendously. Probably a guy that Pippen could dish a lot of assists to... but probably not an elite offensive player himself.

For this team to better than last season's, I think Pippen needs to come back plus some of the questions above need to be answered favorably.


I hate to make the State of the Program into a Next Year's Roster question, but I think that's where we are. For the program to be even remotely healthy, the team needs to be more competitive than the past two seasons. And I am not sure I see that happening.

I also hate to dwell on what-if's, but the above roster with both Pippen and Disu is not just a bubble team, but a tournament team in my opinion. Could be decent with Pippen and no Disu. Without either I do not foresee another year much like the past two. The state of the program requires improvement this year, I believe. After another dismal year I don't see how Stackhouse turns this around.
Pippen's return is essential to CJS surviving - agreed. Without Pippen, it seems to me that we have one returner who is a known quantity and also a legit SEC starter - Wright. I think we can reasonably assume that Robbins is a SEC level starting center, but unlikely to be the best or second best player on a tournament team. The same thing is true with Chatman (except at either PG or SG). Had Pippen and Disu returned, then that would provide CJS 5 SEC quality starters, plus star power to provide plenty of scoring - then the players that you have correctly identified as unknown quantities would be providing bench depth, which is exactly what you would be wanting for a team that has a chance to make the tournament. The more that CJS has to rely on unknown quantities in key roles, the more likely we are headed to a season like the previous one. Pippen returning could at least provide us a season where we get out of the SEC basement, and provide the progress that would secure CJS' job for another season.
User avatar
Foreverhopeful
Rear Admiral
Posts: 1781
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:15 pm
Location: Franklin, TN
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 43 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Foreverhopeful »

Y'all read what he wrote, right? I will be shocked if he comes back to Vanderbilt. I WANT him to, but I don't see it happening.
User avatar
mathguy
Rear Admiral
Posts: 2046
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:27 pm
Has thanked: 44 times
Been thanked: 31 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by mathguy »

Jason94 wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:38 am
Our largest issue is one of continuity (or lack thereof). ... The other main issue is overall depth of talent - beyond our top one or two players, our 3rd or 4th through 8th best players have provided significantly less production than the average SEC team.
I think the second issue here is the more important one. If we are able to have guys like Garland and Nesmith and Pippen who arrive and leave quickly forcing us to switch up alpha dogs every year, that's not inherently a problem. The better our alpha dogs, the more likely they are to leave early (though it would be nice to see the parallel dimension where neither Garland nor Nesmith suffered those injuries and we actually got the benefits of those alpha dogs).

The lack of quality depth is the bigger issue. We need the solid players underneath those alpha dogs. And we need those guys to stay instead entering the transfer portal.

I can handle an alpha dog going to the NBA after two years. Having a revolving door of supporting cast members that are either freshmen or sophomores transferring our or upperclassmen transfers in, but still only here for a year or so .. that's been the biggest issue.
alathIN
Rear Admiral
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:35 pm
Has thanked: 19 times
Been thanked: 42 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by alathIN »

Foreverhopeful wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:52 am Y'all read what he wrote, right? I will be shocked if he comes back to Vanderbilt. I WANT him to, but I don't see it happening.
Unfortunately I think you are right.
Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

Foreverhopeful wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:52 am Y'all read what he wrote, right? I will be shocked if he comes back to Vanderbilt. I WANT him to, but I don't see it happening.
I saw what you posted and fear you are correct, but didn't discern any insider info, so until it is official (that he isn't returning), it makes sense to look at next season both with and without him.
Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

mathguy wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:33 pm
Jason94 wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:38 am
Our largest issue is one of continuity (or lack thereof). ... The other main issue is overall depth of talent - beyond our top one or two players, our 3rd or 4th through 8th best players have provided significantly less production than the average SEC team.
I think the second issue here is the more important one. If we are able to have guys like Garland and Nesmith and Pippen who arrive and leave quickly forcing us to switch up alpha dogs every year, that's not inherently a problem. The better our alpha dogs, the more likely they are to leave early (though it would be nice to see the parallel dimension where neither Garland nor Nesmith suffered those injuries and we actually got the benefits of those alpha dogs).

The lack of quality depth is the bigger issue. We need the solid players underneath those alpha dogs. And we need those guys to stay instead entering the transfer portal.

I can handle an alpha dog going to the NBA after two years. Having a revolving door of supporting cast members that are either freshmen or sophomores transferring our or upperclassmen transfers in, but still only here for a year or so .. that's been the biggest issue.
I agree that it is the larger problem, but the two are a bit related, in that while Robbins can replace a good amount of Disu's production (for instance), Having him as a 2nd option as opposed to a 3rd option has the effect of elevating everyone else on the roster up a notch in importance. All the shots that Saben Lee could have taken this past year was distributed throughout the entire roster. Pippen took up a lot of them, but so did a lot of others players, and when you have four players (Thomas, Stute, Harvey and Lawrence) who take a total of 121 shots inside the arc and make a combined 35% of those shots, it is clearer to see the impact of having to replace the top player, even if someone does step up.
User avatar
charlestonalum
Fleet Admiral
Posts: 13165
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:37 am
Location: Charleston, SC
Has thanked: 101 times
Been thanked: 81 times
Contact:

Re: Where this program stands

Post by charlestonalum »

Foreverhopeful wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:52 am Y'all read what he wrote, right? I will be shocked if he comes back to Vanderbilt. I WANT him to, but I don't see it happening.
Yes, we read it and he basically said farewell to Vanderbilt nice being with you. It is clear he hoped for NBA, but otherwise was in the transfer portal to the next best thing to NBA, a winning P5 team. The new piece in all this is the death of his brother, which could change his original statement in ways that only he and his family will understand. I remain terribly sorry for the loss they have sustained and it makes the state of the Vanderbilt program seem like a lesser concern even for us maniacs.
User avatar
Doreknox
Admiral
Posts: 6969
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:17 pm
Has thanked: 33 times
Been thanked: 13 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Doreknox »

The following link is from today's MSN Sports page. It doesn't seem to break any new ground but it is an outsider's perspective.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... =Peregrine
Jason94
Admiral
Posts: 6121
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:15 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Jason94 »

Doreknox wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:48 am The following link is from today's MSN Sports page. It doesn't seem to break any new ground but it is an outsider's perspective.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... =Peregrine
Tom is actually a major contributor at the Anchor of Gold site, so I wouldn't consider him an outsider.

His post does echo a lot of what has been noted on this board and I agree with his overall take on the new and returning players. The ironic thing is that if Disu and Pippen had returned, I think this had a chance to be a pretty good team, one that could be in the upper half of the SEC.
Last edited by Jason94 on Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Doreknox
Admiral
Posts: 6969
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:17 pm
Has thanked: 33 times
Been thanked: 13 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Doreknox »

Jason94 wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:12 pm
Doreknox wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:48 am The following link is from today's MSN Sports page. It doesn't seem to break any new ground but it is an outsider's perspective.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... =Peregrine
Tom is actually a major contributor at the Anchor of Gold site, so I wouldn't consider him an outsider.
Thanks for letting me know. I knew the name was familiar but couldn't remember where I had seen it.
Vandamnit
Commander
Posts: 320
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:13 am
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by Vandamnit »

Good summary of where we might be next year. Not doom and gloom, but realistic. Boy, what a difference it would make to have Pippen return or land someone of his caliber through the transfer portal (almost no chance of that).
User avatar
buffy
Vice Admiral
Posts: 3359
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:49 pm
Been thanked: 53 times

Re: Where this program stands

Post by buffy »

I've thought about this awhile. Scottie, Dylan and Isaac are selfish children. We would've been a decent team next year. Their teammates, who aren't good enough to whore out their services somewhere else have been abandoned. These teammates now get to look forward to a bunch of loses instead of the hope of building something together. It's shitty. I don't really buy any of the other explanations. Life is hard. Suck it up and work through it. (Clearly assuming there's nothing fundamentally jacked up with CJS behavior)
Locked Previous topicNext topic