Elite 8 predictions?

[mtnvandy]

Anybody want to help me fill my bracket?

Pls list your elite 8.

Final 4 in ALL CAPS

Then list 2 teams in naty w/ champ in ALL CAPS


TIA

# beatETSU

[Versus75]

Are you going to split your winnings with me?

I’ll give you a freebie: Ohio U. in the first round.

[dallasdore]

Obviously, you can see the lack of interest from us Vandy fans this time of year, which is incredibly sad. During the Stallings era, this board was buzzing this time of year. Ah, the good ole days....

Here's my take on this years bracket. You can get some great information and numbers crunching on the cbssports website.

I think the Big 10 will get exposed as being wayyyy over-rated this year. The only team there that I think has a great shot at a long run is Illinois. I think MSU will win a couple games starting tonight. I think Iowa has an easy shot to the sweet 16 but no further. I have Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Rutgers all losing their first game, and Michigan losing to LSU in their second game. Slowhio State, well, I just hope they lose. I have them winning their first two, though.

Best second round (potential) matchup other than Mich-LSU is looking like Arkansas and Texas Tech. Total pick em game, it's a shame that this is 2nd round and not sweet 16. Tennessee versus Oklahoma State looks pretty strong as well, should be another sweet 16 and not here. UT needs Fulkerson back to have any real shot at beating OK State, though.

Break the field down to 3 groups: Gonzaga and Baylor, the Big 10, and the rest of the field. It seems a vast majority of talking heads are figuring the national champ will be from the first or second group. My money would be on the field. That is the group that I personally believe this years champ has the best chance of coming from. I would rank them as field has best shot, Gonzaga/Baylor next best (more because of Baylor than Gonzaga), and distant third would be big 10 (Illinois is only real threat).

Baylor has the numbers to make a run to the final 4. And the talent.

I'm starting to drink the Winthrop koolaid.

I have the Big 12 and SEC making very strong statements in this tourney. The Big 12 is the best conference playing the best basketball this year, and the SEC has several teams that rank elite defensively. I only have Mizzou in the SEC losing it's first game, and the vols and Arkansas have ridiculously tough teams awaiting them in the second round.

I have USC making a deep run in this tournament.

Gonzaga has a ridiculously easy route to the final 4, and should make it. I have them going no further than that, though. Watch out for a potential matchup with 9 seed Oklahoma, though. You heard it here, first.

Illinois' toughest potential matchup in their region, by a mile, is sweet 16 against either Tennessee or Oklahoma State.

Don't drink the Georgetown koolaid, although they could possibly win one game against one of the worst 5 seeds I can remember. Max.

Remember that Syracuse is dangerous against teams that it rarely plays, because of their weird Boeheim defense. I have them going at least to the sweet 16 as an 11 seed.

Bama or Texas will make the final 4. Baylor and TX Tech/Arkansas will make elite 8. USC and Gonzaga (should they survive Oklahoma) will be an elite 8. The others are too tough to call. Michigan, Slowhio State, and Houston won't make elite 8.

That should get you started....

[roanoke]

I have picked a bunch of upsets early. My Elite Eight is dominated by high seeds, though:

Zags and Iowa. FSU and Bama. Baylor and Ohio State. Illinois and Houston.

My upset teams include: UCSB, Syracuse and LSU (beating Michigan). Winthrop and Cleveland State are very good teams. I have Cleveland State losing to Houston, though. I also have USC through to the Sweet 16. Illinois could face tough outs all along the way -Loyola, Chi., OK State, Houston. Baylor will get tested plenty by UNC - and also by Ohio State or Arkansas. Michigan is the only 1 seed I have knocked out by the Elite 8. Texas, FSU, Bama or LSU could all make it through. It is the most interesting division. I thought Oklahoma might be a tough out for Gonzaga - but Oklahoma is having covid problems and may not get past Mizzou. I see the Zags as the only team with a relatively clear path through to the Final Four.

It is a fun time of year - more fun when we are in it, of course. But still fun.

[dallasdore]

My final elite 8 are: Gonzaga and USC, Florida St and Bama, Baylor and Arkansas, OK State and Syracuse.

I think Oklahoma will be a tricky test for Gonzaga.

I don't like my picks past the elite 8. I have a final 4 of Gonzaga, Bama, Baylor, and OK State. Final of Baylor over Bama. Surprisingly, I have a hard time even having two #1 seeds in the final 4 this year. I don't think that the #1's are as dominant as everyone thinks this year.

[mtnvandy]

Thanks for the input.

FYI I sometimes run a Sweet 16 bracket contest. TBH, I find picking from 68 teams is a bit overwhelming,

MATH Q- how is it nobody has ever had a perfect bracket? Seems to me it wld have happened long ago. Since some of these nationally advertised contests seek to allow multiple submisisions and big prizes, odd to me nobody has done this yet.

REGARDS,

MtnVandy


Go ‘Lopes!!!

[mathguy]

MATH Q- how is it nobody has ever had a perfect bracket? Seems to me it wld have happened long ago. Since some of these nationally advertised contests seek to allow multiple submisisions and big prizes, odd to me nobody has done this yet.

No surprise. 2^63 (the number of possible brackets) is a VERY large number. Unless you have individuals managing to robo submit literally TRILLIONS of brackets (and that's probably low) there is no reason to expect a perfect bracket ... well ... ever.

The upsets also kill you. It is pretty common for a top 3 seed to lose a first round game ... but when and who is almost impossible to predict. So a lot of the people that actually have the big upsets in their brackets, don't really have brackets that are in tune with logic ... which almost always eventually plays out.

So, while you can say "but a bunch of those 2^63 possible brackets are totally implausible" ... the fact is that the ACTUAL bracket most years is pretty implausible at the scale of getting it all right.

Someone will break DiMaggio's hit streak before someone gets a perfect NCAA bracket.

Hell, someone might break Johnny Van de Meers record of 2 consecutive no-hitters, before someone gets a perfect NCAA bracket. Those (3 straight no-hitters and a perfect bracket) are probably comparably statistically likely. Actually, the no-hitters might be easier...

[mathguy]

I have a lot of chalk this year.

GONZAGA vs Iowa
MICHIGAN vs Alabama
BAYLOR vs Arkansas
OKLAHOMA STATE vs Houston

GONZAGA d Baylor in the finals

I haven't followed too much this year. Vandy stunk & COVID made things hard to consistently follow. Ironically, I am wondering if not knowing much will have me tend toward a better than average bracket since I can't try to outsmart myself.

Definitely pulling hard for Gonzaga. Would be the first undefeated champ in my lifetime (barely). Would be cool to see. Also would be cool to see a non Power 5 team finally break through and win. And for Gonzaga to finally pull off the run that they've been teasing people on for years and years now. And I feel like this team may be good enough to do it!

[mathguy]

MATH Q- how is it nobody has ever had a perfect bracket? Seems to me it wld have happened long ago. Since some of these nationally advertised contests seek to allow multiple submisisions and big prizes, odd to me nobody has done this yet.

No surprise. 2^63 (the number of possible brackets) is a VERY large number. Unless you have individuals managing to robo submit literally TRILLIONS of brackets (and that's probably low) there is no reason to expect a perfect bracket ... well ... ever.

The upsets also kill you. It is pretty common for a top 3 seed to lose a first round game ... but when and who is almost impossible to predict. So a lot of the people that actually have the big upsets in their brackets, don't really have brackets that are in tune with logic ... which almost always eventually plays out.

So, while you can say "but a bunch of those 2^63 possible brackets are totally implausible" ... the fact is that the ACTUAL bracket most years is pretty implausible at the scale of getting it all right.

Someone will break DiMaggio's hit streak before someone gets a perfect NCAA bracket.

Hell, someone might break Johnny Van de Meers record of 2 consecutive no-hitters, before someone gets a perfect NCAA bracket. Those (3 straight no-hitters and a perfect bracket) are probably comparably statistically likely. Actually, the no-hitters might be easier...

So, just to go into overkill, I got curious, pulled out a calculator, and googled to find the historical NCAA record of seed vs seed matchups. So, with some math here, the statistically "most likely" outcome, that the higher seed wins every game (which is generally supported by the data as most likely) would occur with a probability of approximately 1 in 55,910,732,660 (56 billion). Now, keep in mind this isn't the likelihood of actually predicting a perfect bracket. This is the likelihood of the MOST LIKELY bracket actually occurring. So any other bracket that someone fills out is *less* likely than this to be accurate.

This year, ESPNs bracket challenge has 16.2 million entrants according to google. Dividing those, we would expect a perfect bracket once in 3457 years. This is rough armchair math here. I suspect the actual odds are considerably less, because of people being afraid to actually call the big 2-15 or 3-14 upsets in the first round, when they do occur. Not to mention, that I am also basing this off of the statistically most likely bracket ... the odds of a "real" bracket occurring are actually much less because upsets, by definition, are a lot less likely to happen.

In contrast, Google tells me that since the year 2000, the probability of a pitcher throwing a no hitter is 0.05%. At that odds, the odds of a pitcher throwing 3 perfect games in a row is 8,000,000,000 ... considerably more likely than a perfect bracket. Of course, we have a lot fewer pitcher opportunities for 3 straight no hitters than people submitting brackets, so I guess me may get a perfect bracket before we see 3 straight no-hitters. Though we do have to wonder if pro sports can last the several thousand years into the future we will need to see either.

Although since Kumar Rocker will soon be headed to MLB...


The ESPN bracket challenge this year has 16.2 million

[Ndorefin]

I saw on a news show, some math wiz said the odds for a perfect bracket is 9,000,000,000,000,000+ to 1, which is over 9 quadrillion!

[4timenatlchamps]

I saw on a news show, some math wiz said the odds for a perfect bracket is 9,000,000,000,000,000+ to 1, which is over 9 quadrillion!

Not to diminish the math guru’s bona fides but wouldn’t it just be 2 (the number of possible outcomes per game) raised to a power of 63 (the number of games, excluding the first four)?

[mathguy]

I saw on a news show, some math wiz said the odds for a perfect bracket is 9,000,000,000,000,000+ to 1, which is over 9 quadrillion!

Not to diminish the math guru’s bona fides but wouldn’t it just be 2 (the number of possible outcomes per game) raised to a power of 63 (the number of games, excluding the first four)?

Yeah, it should be 2^63 ... which actually gives one extra set of zeros than that number. To give that as the odds, this of course assumes that each game is a 50-50 tossup, which we know is untrue. So there is a difference between the chance of a perfect bracket and "1 out of the number of possible brackets" ... but even so ... it's kind of a crazy big number.

[4timenatlchamps]

I saw on a news show, some math wiz said the odds for a perfect bracket is 9,000,000,000,000,000+ to 1, which is over 9 quadrillion!

Not to diminish the math guru’s bona fides but wouldn’t it just be 2 (the number of possible outcomes per game) raised to a power of 63 (the number of games, excluding the first four)?

Yeah, it should be 2^63 ... which actually gives one extra set of zeros than that number. To give that as the odds, this of course assumes that each game is a 50-50 tossup, which we know is untrue. So there is a difference between the chance of a perfect bracket and "1 out of the number of possible brackets" ... but even so ... it's kind of a crazy big number.

Yeah, I would imagine someone who does their research about the game and matchups and whatnot would have better odds, and if you’re picking higher seeds in every matchup those odds probably swing way up, but the setup I’m talking about involves basically just predicting the correct outcome of a coin flip 63 times in a row.

[Versus75]

Are you going to split your winnings with me?

I’ll give you a freebie: Ohio U. in the first round.

You read it here first!