The Arkansas Razorbacks might have thought that they had gained ground when they made a late rally to briefly threaten the LSU Tigers on November 10.
By Matt Zemek
It is true that LSU hasn’t obliterated a number of its opponents this season, but even then, there was ample reason to think that the Tigers would crush the Razorbacks due to the pronounced difference in physical strength at the line of scrimmage. LSU is in an entirely different league compared to Arkansas in terms of brute force and raw power. Arkansas didn’t beat LSU, but it stayed in the fight and showed more backbone than many people were ready to expect.
That performance gave Arkansas a measure of hope that it could take the next step against Mississippi State and bother the Bulldogs. This was still an uphill climb and a heavy lift in Starkville against a team which has been tough to beat at home. Nevertheless, Arkansas figured it could make this past Saturday’s game a close contest.
It did not.
Even though Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald completed only nine passes for 127 yards, the Bulldogs ran away from the Hogs, 52-6. The theme of the game was Arkansas’ inability to not only finish drives, but to at least leverage field position. A bunch of turnovers – either fumbles, interceptions, or turnovers on downs – in the middle of the field gave Mississippi State’s offense a number of drive starts near the 50-yard line. MSU didn’t have to gobble up insane amounts of yards to score 52 points. That fact offers an insight into what Arkansas must try to do against Missouri, which is coming off a thumping of Tennessee in Knoxville:
1 – FIELD POSITION
The starting point for Arkansas in this game on Friday is field position. Arkansas couldn’t manage to flip the field against Mississippi State. The Hogs continuously gave the Bulldogs only half a field to drive. If Arkansas had been able to turn a 50-yard field into a 90-yard field, it might have been able to stay close the whole way. This is not so much a key to WINNING the game, but it is a central key to staying close and not losing the game by halftime or early in the third quarter. If Arkansas gives up more short fields, this game will get ugly in a hurry. This is the first step. Now, on to the second and third steps which can turn a close game into a victory:
2 – EXCHANGE RATES
These two teams lived on the opposite side of the points-for-turnovers exchange this past weekend. Missouri scored 21 points off Tennessee turnovers in Knoxville, while Arkansas conceded 35 points off turnovers to Mississippi State in Starkville, if you include turnovers on downs as turnovers – if not, UA still allowed 21 points off turnovers to MSU. Therefore, there was at least a 42-point difference in points off turnovers between these two teams in Week 12, and 56 points if you include turnovers on downs. That’s notable, to say the very least.
3 – THIRD DOWN
The Hogs have to strike a balance between aggression and forcing Mizzou to drive the length of the field. This means winning third down becomes absolutely central to the Razorbacks’ ability to play this game close.
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