It is always darkest before they pull you out of the sensory deprivation tank. So it is for Vanderbilt Football Fans in 2018. While Vandy is now 3-5, four of those losses have come against the AP ranked 3rd, 7th, 9th and 12th-ranked teams in the country.
By FK Friedman
While the schedule did not reveal an obvious gauntlet before the season began – it turns out we just completed a three week stretch against three “Top Twelve” opponents in a row. Objectively, we easily could have won two of those games. After the narrow loss to Kentucky, Coach Mason pronounced his team “close.” It is hard to argue with that assessment – after taking Notre Dame and Kentucky to the last minute and leading Florida by 18. But at some point “close” needs to translate to winning an SEC game.
This week the Commodores travel to Fayetteville for a “back-to-back SEC road game” – traditionally a much-dreaded and difficult undertaking. On this particular road trip, however, Vandy finds a team about as desperate for a win as we are. The Razorbacks are 2-6, 0-4 with their only victories coming against Eastern Illinois and Tulsa – and after this week there are no other possible wins left on the Arkansas schedule. Not unlike Vanderbilt, the Razorbacks best performances have come in losses – including a gut-wrenching late collapse against Ole Miss (in a game they led by two scores in the fourth quarter) and an offensive explosion against Bama in defeat. The body of work includes a 44-17 home slaughter at the hands of North Texas – and, most recently, a shut-out of 1-6 Tulsa.
The Razorbacks are making the transition from smashmouth football to Coach Chad Morris’s more open, up-tempo offense. There have been growing pains and injuries. When healthy, Arkansas can score – and Arkansas’ QB Ty Storey (after being knocked out of the Ole Miss game and missing the Tulsa walk-through) is listed as probable this week. Running back Rakeem Boyd is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Eight different receivers have caught a touchdown pass – but no receiver has amassed 20 receptions in the first eight games. Arkansas opened as a 1½ point favorite according to Vegas. The line has shifted and Vandy is now favored by 2 points. Stat of the week: this is the first time Vandy has been favored in a road SEC game during Coach Mason’s tenure.
Vandy’s defense turned in a rock solid performance last week, limiting Kentucky to 14 points. It was the first time Vandy had held an SEC offense below 20 points since 2016. The weather helped – as a brisk wind made passing difficult. Kentucky – already somewhat challenged in that department – decided not to throw. The Wildcats completed 3 of 9 passes for 18 yards. While Kentucky’s Benny Snell gained 172 yards on 32 rushes, the defense held admirably limiting Kentucky to its lowest point total of the season. The defense played well enough to win. Jordan Griffin had an impossible 18 tackles. LaDarius Wiley added 11 – and squelched big gains on multiple occasions. The staff, too, did a nice job of bringing up the safeties and focusing on run defense once it became clear UK would not throw. It turns out we were pretty good on defense when we knew what was coming.
This brings us to the offense – which continues to squander opportunities in the red zone at an alarming rate. We are dead last in the NCAA in red zone conversions – and it cost us this game. Kyle Shurmur had a decent outing, considering the rough conditions. He connected on 15 of 23 throws for a TD and no INTs. Two of his best throws came on roll-outs, but he was pressured a great deal in the pocket and sacked four times. The announcers commented that they asked the Vandy braintrust how they intended to “game plan” Kentucky’s premier pass rusher Josh Allen – and the response was: “we do what we do.” This lack of plan would bite on various occasions over the course of the evening.
Receiver CJ Bolar was a bright spot with a team-leading 78 yards and a TD. Jamauri Wakefield turned in a solid performance too. The offense operated without Ke’Shawn Vaughn our central big-play threat – and still had the # 12-ranked Wildcats on the ropes.
The game ultimately came down to one play. With the score 7-7 in the fourth quarter we moved to the UK 16 yard line. It was third and one. We brought the tight ends tight – telegraphing a smashmouth run against Kentucky’s solid D-line. It didn’t work leaving us with fourth and one. We called time-out – decided not to attempt a go-ahead field goal – and ran straight up the middle again. We lost yardage, hope and the game right there. UK responded by driving the length of the field and winning.
It was “close.” It was a good effort. But Coach Mason’s record fell to 6-30 in SEC games. It is a hard record to sugarcoat – made all the harder by the obvious talent we are putting on the field. This team is talented enough to take ranked teams to the limit – so it should be talented enough to win games against 2-6 teams – and, unfortunately, that adds a lot of pressure to this week’s contest in Fayetteville. This is not just a “must win.” It is an urgent must win for this staff.
The fact that the match-up comes against Chad Morris’ Razorbacks adds significant irony. Morris and Mason were viewed as frontrunners for Vandy’s job five years ago when James Franklin left for happier valleys – poaching our recruits in the process. Morris was viewed as the offense-minded gunslinger – while Mason was the defensive guru. Oddly, it is Mason’s plodding, predictable offensive tendencies that have been his own self-imposed nemesis. Will the urgency of a much-needed win be sufficient that he opens up the offense this week? – or will we continue to “do what we do.” The answer to this straightforward question will likely decide who wins this game.
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