Do we have a chance v UT?
An upset wld go a long way in improving my view of our team, coach and program.
MtnVandy
Vols?
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Jason94
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Re: Vols?
We have a chance IMO - not a great one but they are beatable. It will have to start at the Center spot - can Robbins cause issues from UT inside? If not it might be a long night, but UT is playing a rotation at center and both players are big but a bit foul prone and neither are offensive stars.
UT is great defensively (this is probably understating things - their adjusted defensive rating is significantly better than any team over the last decade) - their guards create a ton of turnovers - Manjon has to be on top of his game, and IMO this is a horrible matchup for Thomas - UT puts pressure on the ball and doesn't allow teams to hit their threes. OTOH Thomas is due to hit a bunch so who knows? We will have to draw fouls - UT will foul you - probably their only defensive weakness.
On defense, we will have to crash the defensive glass - UT is not a great shooting team and they turn the ball over a bit much for a team ranked as highly as they are. But they lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate, grabbing a full 40% of their own misses. This number leads the nation and they have a number of players who are very active on the glass. We have been good protecting the defensive glass but we will have to take it up another level if we have a hope of winning.
This is one of those games where I would expect to see the freshmen a bit less, as it will be the most hostile environment they've seen to date and the best team we've faced to this point. They might get to play anyway if it is a blowout, which it could be. But I would be just fine with seeing their time reduced if it meant that we were in the game with 5 or 10 minutes to go.
Re: Vols?
Possible? Yes. But highly unlikely. Vandy would have to do something they haven't managed to do all season...play a complete game for 40 minutes. That means each player would have to play one of their best games of the year (more or less). And Vols would have to have an off-night.
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MrMemorial
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memphisVUalum
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Re: Vols?
How did UT lose to Colorado by 12? (Edited this to remove typo on location.) Maybe CJS can find the takeaway from that. They also lost to ranked Arizona on the road. Colorado has lost 6 games including to Grambling.
Last edited by memphisVUalum on Tue Jan 10, 2023 7:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Jason94
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Re: Vols?
Yeah - that is what I mean - it will be quite difficult, but not impossible - UT has shown they are beatable, though it will have to be an off night by them. Against Colorado they shot 25% from the floor - not 25% from three, but overall. Colorado limited UT on the offensive glass - UT had 12 offensive boards, but that was out of 48 chances. Colorado did not shoot particularly well overall, but hit their inside shots and made their FTA's.memphisVUalum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:31 pmHow did UT lose to Colorado at Knoxville by 12? Maybe CJS can find the takeaway from that. They also lost to ranked Arizona on the road. Colorado has lost 6 games including to Grambling.
I would think we have to be judicious about the threes we take - UT has played 15 games so far this season, and the best three point percentage they have allowed is a 5-15 night (33%) against USC. Teams average 21% from three against them and if we shoot 30 of threes and hit only 6 we will likely be a world of hurt. Pound the ball inside to Robbins and work the offense inside out, and hope UT has an off night shooting the ball, or we get lucky and hit some shots we don't usually hit. The computers show us as a 4% chance, but out talent is better than the computers are showing since we've played so poorly in several games that skews those numbers. We realistically have something like a 1 in 10 or 1 in 12 chance of actually winning the game.
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dcdore
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Re: Vols?
A friendly wager that VU takes more than 15 3'sJason94 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:59 pmYeah - that is what I mean - it will be quite difficult, but not impossible - UT has shown they are beatable, though it will have to be an off night by them. Against Colorado they shot 25% from the floor - not 25% from three, but overall. Colorado limited UT on the offensive glass - UT had 12 offensive boards, but that was out of 48 chances. Colorado did not shoot particularly well overall, but hit their inside shots and made their FTA's.memphisVUalum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:31 pmHow did UT lose to Colorado at Knoxville by 12? Maybe CJS can find the takeaway from that. They also lost to ranked Arizona on the road. Colorado has lost 6 games including to Grambling.
I would think we have to be judicious about the threes we take - UT has played 15 games so far this season, and the best three point percentage they have allowed is a 5-15 night (33%) against USC. Teams average 21% from three against them and if we shoot 30 of threes and hit only 6 we will likely be a world of hurt. Pound the ball inside to Robbins and work the offense inside out, and hope UT has an off night shooting the ball, or we get lucky and hit some shots we don't usually hit. The computers show us as a 4% chance, but out talent is better than the computers are showing since we've played so poorly in several games that skews those numbers. We realistically have something like a 1 in 10 or 1 in 12 chance of actually winning the game.
Always hopeful; rarely optimistic. 
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FootballFan
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Re: Vols?
UT/Colorado game was in Nashville. UT has won something like 24 games in a row at home.memphisVUalum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:31 pmHow did UT lose to Colorado at Knoxville by 12? Maybe CJS can find the takeaway from that. They also lost to ranked Arizona on the road. Colorado has lost 6 games including to Grambling.
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dore74
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Re: Vols?
I think a 5-10% chance of us winning sounds about right after the MO game. I sincerely think we do not have enough depth but after the MO game, like others, wondered if we have reached a better place as a team.
Nevertheless, a 90-95% chance of losing obviously stinks. Realistically I am hoping that we can keep it relatively close to keep the team's mojo high as they tackle a daunting series of upcoming games.
Nevertheless, a 90-95% chance of losing obviously stinks. Realistically I am hoping that we can keep it relatively close to keep the team's mojo high as they tackle a daunting series of upcoming games.
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Jason94
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Re: Vols?
This is one of the best teams in the nation on their home court in front of what will likely be 20,000+ fans. If UT loses at home this season, it will be only once I would guess.dore74 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:33 am I think a 5-10% chance of us winning sounds about right after the MO game. I sincerely think we do not have enough depth but after the MO game, like others, wondered if we have reached a better place as a team.
Nevertheless, a 90-95% chance of losing obviously stinks. Realistically I am hoping that we can keep it relatively close to keep the team's mojo high as they tackle a daunting series of upcoming games.
We've pretty wildly underplayed to our overall ability however, which is why we have a chance to beat somebody this season. There is enough talent on this roster to make the tournament.
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cjdore
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Re: Vols?
They lost the game against CO here in Nashville and not Knoxpatch.memphisVUalum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:31 pmHow did UT lose to Colorado at Knoxville by 12? Maybe CJS can find the takeaway from that. They also lost to ranked Arizona on the road. Colorado has lost 6 games including to Grambling.
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cjdore
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Re: Vols?
The line last night was ut favored by 19.5. Today, however, the line has dropped to 17.5. Furthermore, nothing is being said about this being a sandwich game as the vols just may be looking ahead to UK on Saturday.
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Dickeys Nightmare
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